<h1>据机构研报测算：采暖季“2+26”城市环保将减少钢材供给超过10%</h1>
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	<span>2017-10-23 8:46:09</span>来源：<span>中国证券报</span>作者：<span></span>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
			<li>9月以来，因市场对于需求不达预期的悲观情绪宣泄，9月国内市场钢材价格由升转降。9月末，钢铁协会CSPI中国钢材价格指数为113.82点，环比下降1.48点，降幅为1.28%，环比由升转降。</li>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
			<li>需求   钢铁</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">出于对<b>需求</b>端疲弱的担忧，9月以来钢价及<b>钢铁</b>板块由原来的升势转入跌势。但分析人士指出，尽管所谓的&ldquo;金九&rdquo;成为了&ldquo;淡季&rdquo;，但同需求一样供给同样受到限制，随着采暖季来临，钢铁供应将进一步下滑，对价格以及板块走势将提供支撑，对于板块后市不必过于悲观。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><strong>需求不济拖累行情</strong></p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">9月以来，因市场对于需求不达预期的悲观情绪宣泄，9月国内市场钢材价格由升转降。9月末，钢铁协会CSPI中国钢材价格指数为113.82点，环比下降1.48点，降幅为1.28%，环比由升转降。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">原本表现强势的钢铁板块震荡回调。申万钢铁指数9月4日以来的30个交易日累计下跌10.75%。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中航证券研报指出，三季度社会总库存呈累计趋势，而进入&ldquo;金九&rdquo;后库存并没有出现下降，这侧面印证旺季需求的下滑。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">10月20日，该板块日K线上收出一根大阳线，终结了此前的三连跌走势，且对投资者信心修复提供了契机。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">&ldquo;在如今供给、需求双降情况下，市场很难分辨具体的供需情况，而库存作为供需之间的缓冲带，库存升降将反映两者之间力量对比，建议未来重点关注库存变化。&rdquo;中航证券指出。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">机构社会库存统计数据显示，截至10月12日，五大主要钢材品种中间商库存为1046万吨，月环比增加98万吨，相对于年内高点1659万吨和低点940万吨来看，仍处于低位水平。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">&ldquo;库存低位的原因在于贸易企业资金偏紧，囤货积极性不高，库存季节性偏低所致。根据历史的库存变化规律，我们预计这种低库存水平将持续到年底。&rdquo;光大证券王招华、杨华表示。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><strong>采暖季板块有支撑</strong></p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从供应面上看，统计局数据显示，9月全国粗钢产量7183万吨，日均产量239.4万吨，同比增长5.4%，月环比下降0.5%；1-9月产钢共计6.39亿吨，同比增长6.3%。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">王招华、杨华表示，钢铁企业盈利水平较高、下游需求平稳，以及表外产量表内化是粗钢产量保持高位的主要原因。&ldquo;我们认为，在2+26城市环保限产背景下，未来3-4个月的粗钢产量将呈现下降趋势。&rdquo;</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从需求上看，9月份房地产新开工面积和基建投资完成额同比增速小幅下滑。1-9月份，房屋新开工面积13亿平方米，同比增长6.8%，增速回落0.8个百分点。施工面积73.8亿平方米，同比增长3.1%，增速与1-8月份持平。全国基础设施建设投资增速小幅下滑。1-9月份，全国基础设施建设投资完成额同比增长15.88%，增速比1-8月份回落0.21个百分点。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中金公司研报认为，目前下游投资需求平稳，板材受冬季限产影响大于长材，或出现&ldquo;板强长弱&rdquo;格局。近期部分地区采暖季限产的陆续提前开启，供给侧收缩预期增强。上周钢材社会库存小幅回落，一定程度上反映了需求并不悲观。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中航证券表示，采暖季将至，测算&ldquo;2+26&rdquo;城市环保方案将导致供给减少超10%，为避免供给不足，预计未来进入采暖季前，钢产量或将维持高位运行，入冬后会有较大下滑。届时钢材供给受到压缩，对钢价有一定支撑。钢价四季度走势受供需面影响较大，供需之间的博弈应为钢价波动主要因素，预计未来价格震荡运行为主。</p>
<p align="left" style="widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">&ldquo;从现阶段透露出的3季度预报来看，第三季度盈利仍然较高。建议关注业绩较好、估值较低，环保限产受益的板块龙头。&rdquo;中航证券指出。</p>
<p>(关键字：需求   钢铁)</p></div>
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