<h1>BDI六连跌陷深度低迷 跌幅7%</h1>
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<span>2015-5-27 9:16:47</span>来源：<span>经济参考报</span>作者：<span></span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>截至5月22日，BDI（波罗的海干散货指数）报收586点，连续六天下跌，累计跌幅达7%。今年上半年以来，BDI长期在600点以下徘徊，陷入深度低迷，一些中小船厂经营十分困难。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>BDI 需求</li>
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<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">截至</font></span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="22" month="5" year="2015"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">5</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">22</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">日</font></span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">，</font></span><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><b>BDI</b></span></strong><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">（波罗的海干散货指数）报收</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">586</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">点，连续六天下跌，累计跌幅达</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">7%</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">。今年上半年以来，</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">BDI</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">长期在</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">600</span><font face="宋体"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">点以下徘徊，陷入深度低迷，一些中小船厂经营十分困难。业内人士称，运力严重过剩长期困扰航运业发展，目前市场<b>需求</b>放缓难以改善，必须通过船东之间的联营、整合削减过剩运力，唯有如此，市场才可能快速恢复。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">干散货航运市场对<strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">需求</span></strong>波动反应一向敏感，七年前由于市场需求驱动，将干散货航运市场推向顶峰。目前干散货市场供应处于低谷，该领域在过去几年经历了史无前例的供过于求，最近市场需求放缓加剧了干散货航运市场的困境。来自交通部的数据显示，一季度</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">BDI</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">均值为</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">614</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">点，同比、环比分别下跌</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">55.2%</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">和</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">45.4%</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">。截至</font></span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="22" month="5" year="2015"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">5</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">22</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">日</font></span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">，国际干散货船队运力规模为</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">10316</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">艘，约</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">7.56</span><font face="宋体"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">亿载重吨，远远超出需求。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">4</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月份，航运类上市公司公布了</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2015</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">1</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">季度财报，行业整体形势有所好转，但前景仍不乐观。</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">13</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">家</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">A</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">股航运类上市公司</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">1</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">季度总营收从</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2013</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年以来持续负增长。归属母公司股东的净利润方面，虽然较</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2013</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">、</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2014</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年有明显好转，但是中国远洋、中昌海运仍出现亏损。目前国际航运形势仍处于供大于求的局面，能否继续保持盈利，将成为航运企业</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2015</span><font face="宋体"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">年的挑战。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">全球航运咨询公司德鲁里发布最新版的干散货航运市场报告指出，市场需求疲软仍将持续，尤其是中国的煤炭和钢铁贸易预计进一步下降，不必指望今年干散货航运市场有任何明显的复苏，散货船运力过剩仍然非常严重。德鲁里预计干散货航运市场在</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2016</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年有所改善，但是不太可能恢复盈亏平衡，到</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">2017</span><font face="宋体"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">年，在老龄船舶拆解增加和新船订单减少的情况下，可能会恢复盈利。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">虽然包括中远在内的国内航运企业举步维艰，但是国际航运巨头仍保持不错的经营势头。今年一季度，达飞轮船净利润达到</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">4.06</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">亿美元，马士基盈利近</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">16</span><font face="宋体"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">亿美元。业内人士表示，面临同样的竞争环境、经济形势，国际航运巨头仍能大幅度盈利，这说明国内航运企业需要避免恶性竞争，不断提高经营管理水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近期，中远和中海发展组建联营公司，共同运营淡水河谷大船，同时招商轮船也从淡水河谷承租大船运营，展现了航运业新一轮整合、洗牌的新苗头。目前中远、中海、招商局、中外运长航集团四大航运央企在集运、干散货运输、油运等主要业务板块上交叉多，专业化经营程度有限，存在过度竞争，甚至同一企业内部不同分公司之间为争抢货源过度竞争经常发生，造成了不必要的资源浪费和收益损失。分析人士指出，中远集运与中海集运若合并，运力将达</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">156</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">万</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">TEU</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">，跃居全球第</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial">4</span><font face="宋体"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">位，地位和市场份额翻番将有效提升定价权，控制运力投放节奏，加速淘汰老旧过剩运力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; margin-bottom: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font face="宋体"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%">“</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%">中远和中海发展成立联营公司，对市场整体偏利好，有利于加速市场出清。<span lang="EN-US">”</span>上海国际航运研究中心国际航运研究室主任张永锋表示，严重过剩的市场运力很难用需求的改善消除，市场必须削减过剩运力，也唯有此，市场才能快速恢复。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%; font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"> </p>
<p>(关键字：BDI 需求)</p></div>
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