<h1>取向硅钢:2018年平稳收尾 业内仍看好2019年</h1>
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<span>2018-12-29 15:05:12</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>刘晓丹</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>本周，国内取向硅钢市场进入2018年尾，受元旦小长假以及发票及跨年度结算影响，市场成交不大，商家陆续休市。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>取向硅钢 特高压 电网</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">本周，国内<b>取向硅钢</b>市场进入</font>2018<font face="宋体">年尾，受元旦小长假以及发票及跨年度结算影响，市场成交不大，商家陆续休市。从年初价格来看，常规取向</font><font face="Calibri">120</font><font face="宋体">、</font><font face="Calibri">130</font><font face="宋体">等牌号一年时间已经上涨</font><font face="Calibri">1800</font><font face="宋体">元左右，钢厂出厂价相对更高，总体是阶梯型上涨趋势，符合今年取向硅钢走出去年低谷特征。如果和</font><font face="Calibri">2008</font><font face="宋体">年</font><font face="Calibri">4700</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨的价格相比较，还不及其三分之一。而钢厂预期在<b>电网</b>投资高速增长以及需求稳中向好的形势下，到</font><font face="Calibri">19</font><font face="宋体">年取向价格升至</font><font face="Calibri">15000</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨预期目标有可能实现。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">截年底，主流市场报价依旧稳定。上海市场</font>30Q120<font face="宋体">牌号报</font><font face="Calibri">14200</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨，</font><font face="Calibri">30QG120</font><font face="宋体">报</font><font face="Calibri">14400</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨，</font><font face="Calibri">120</font><font face="宋体">牌号让步材报</font><font face="Calibri">13900</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨，</font><font face="Calibri">B30P120</font><font face="宋体">报价</font><font face="Calibri">14200</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨；民营</font><font face="Calibri">120</font><font face="宋体">牌号报价基本在</font><font face="Calibri">12700-13000</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨。主要市场到货量不多，预计月初有部分资源抵达华东区域。目前市场心态保持平稳，对市场也相对乐观，行情下跌可能性不大。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">供需总体稳定，中华商务网预计取向硅钢总体产量预期达到</font>128<font face="宋体">万吨水平。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">下游方面，</font>11<font face="宋体">月份制造业</font><font face="Calibri">PMI </font><font face="宋体">最新数值</font><font face="Calibri">50.0%</font><font face="宋体">，连续</font><font face="Calibri">26 </font><font face="宋体">个月实现了位于扩张区间后，降至临界点。但在电网工程投资方面，</font><font face="Calibri">1-11</font><font face="宋体">月完成投资</font><font face="Calibri">4511</font><font face="宋体">亿元，比去年同期减少</font><font face="Calibri">3.2%</font><font face="宋体">。其中</font><font face="Calibri">11 </font><font face="宋体">月完成投资</font><font face="Calibri">697</font><font face="宋体">亿元，同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">30.04%</font><font face="宋体">。既反映了</font><font face="Calibri">11</font><font face="宋体">月电网投资加快，也反应了市场在经济下行压力下，电网仍是投资中重要一环。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">目前，国家电网启动十大领域混改，<b>特高压</b>首次向社会资本开放投资，国家电网未来还将混改试点扩大到综合能源服务、电动汽车、信息通信、通航业务等领域，并推进装备制造企业分板块整体上市，而金融领域的混改也将从英大信托扩展到全部业务。这有利于引进民资加快电网项目落地，对硅钢需求节奏保持稳定增长有较大推动作用。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">在世界范围内，特高压建设也为取向硅钢带来利好。能源互联网计划发布，特高压大势所趋。《全球能源互联网促进实施行动计划》在联合国气候变化大会上发布，提出全球能源互联网促进《巴黎协定》实施的系统方案。其中，行动计划提出全球能源互联网的实质是</font>“智能电网<font face="Calibri">+</font><font face="宋体">特高压电网</font><font face="Calibri">+</font><font face="宋体">清洁能源”，到</font><font face="Calibri">2070 </font><font face="宋体">年全球形成“九横九纵”格局，预期特高压海外市场长期内将有较大需求，利好国内拥有成熟项目经验和深厚技术积累的设备厂商；行动计划也提出搭建全球电力与碳排放权联合交易平台，有助于资源禀赋较好的地区平衡经济利益以支持电网建设。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">下周预期</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">：</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 200%; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">从目前市场运行状况来看，元旦后，市场经过短期休整逐步恢复正常交易。由于春节因素，钢厂或赶在</font>1<font face="宋体">月上旬发布</font><font face="Calibri">2</font><font face="宋体">月甚至</font><font face="Calibri">3</font><font face="宋体">月份价格政策，避免春节假期受价格波动干扰。不过，年底年初需求减少、库存增加现象历年相对普遍，价格进一步拉涨不符合阶段性市场特征。从中长期来看，取向硅钢面临较稳较好的市场需求环境，特高压和配网以及新能源、高铁建设，都会是明年需求重点。因此，取向硅钢价格仍有上涨空间，但不宜幅度扩大，节奏过快。</font></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Calibri; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p>(关键字：取向硅钢 特高压 电网)</p></div>
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