<h1>黑色系供给端故事还能讲多久</h1>
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<span>2018-8-30 8:38:04</span>来源：<span>中国证券报</span>作者：<span></span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>从目前实际执行来看，限产方式仍以延长结焦时间为主，这对焦炭供给的压缩效果或将不如消费的萎缩。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>黑色系 供给</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">经过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月以来超过两个月持续上涨后，<b>黑色系</b>近期逐步冷静，螺纹钢现货价格有所松动，焦炭期货价格走高后也有大量套保盘开始入场，最终导致期现价差收窄。业内分析认为，当前市场对于价格出现了比较明显的恐高情绪，但长期来看，环保等带来的<b>供给</b>端故事还将左右黑色系走势。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“恐高症”发作</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“螺纹钢今天的走势让我们很吃惊，说明市场在价格高位时信心严重不足。”上海一家私募的商品期货策略总监周三收盘后对记者表示。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">当天螺纹钢期货主力</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1901</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约小幅高开，随后缓慢上行，截至中午收盘，上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">52</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.29%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，下午开盘后，随即风云突变快速下跌，最终收报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4160</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，午后交易时段累计下跌将近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">3%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">龙虎榜上，永安期货席位当天大幅减仓</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">43602</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">手多单，多单持仓量回到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月初水平，同时增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">14253</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">手空单。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">受螺纹钢期价走势带动，周三早盘强势的焦炭期货主力</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1901</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约午后也收窄涨幅，最终以阴线十字星收盘，报收</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2579.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.34%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">虽然昨日的调整令一些市场人士意外，但从盘面上看，黑色系“恐高症”发作已久。以螺纹钢为例，</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="21" month="8" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">21</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以来，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1809</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约价格累计下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">236</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，跌幅达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5.36%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。在期货价格回调的同时，螺纹钢现货价格也有所松动。根据兰格钢铁信息网提供的数据，截至</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="29" month="8" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">29</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，全国</span><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" tcsc="0" numbertype="1" negative="False" hasspace="False" sourcevalue="25" unitname="mm"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">25mm</font></span></st1:chmetcnv><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的三级螺纹钢均价为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4543</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，环比上周下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">89</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，其中广州地区跌幅最大，跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">180</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“在前期国家货币政策略有放松、环保政策继续发酵的影响下，钢价快速上涨。不过，前期价格上涨速度过快，导致市场出现恐高心理，需求也受到了一定抑制，近几日价格出现了小幅回调、总体库存量也有一定增长，属于合理现象。”分析师马力对记者表示。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">前述私募策略总监则表示，当前市场对于需求端的预期一直没有大幅度改善。在钢价高企，钢厂利润较高的情况下，各方对于当前利润格局能否持续保持怀疑，因此会出现频繁的恐高情绪。此外，期货和现货又同时形成了“负反馈”，二者交叉印证，使得市场回调预期进一步加强。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">环保政策仍是“指挥棒”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">行情反复下，一些分析师开始提示回调风险。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“三季度钢铁趋势性机会已经接近尾声，建议及时止盈钢铁相关资产，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份关注钢铁行业四季度供暖季机会。”中信证券分析师敖翀分析，预计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月初螺纹钢价格有望提前迎来回调窗口。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">不过，中国证券报记者了解到，仍有不少市场人士对于年内黑色系行情表示乐观，而环保带来的供给端故事则是支撑他们的理由。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">业内人士孙辉对记者表示，螺纹钢价格易涨难跌，短期不排除有震荡调整，但整体趋势仍向上。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“目前环保呈现常态化和扩大化，随着取暖季到来，环保可能进一步加强，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月螺纹钢现货价格可能站上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5000/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。”孙辉说，目前螺纹钢主要产地集中于江苏，但苏北地区复产一直不及预期，苏南常州地区又一直限产，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月上旬沙钢计划产量都已经出现计划折扣，这非常罕见。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">所谓计划折扣，一般指厂家无法按原定合同量向贸易商交货，只能打折执行订单。根据西本新干线的数据，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中天</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8-3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">期计划量中螺纹是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折（上期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折），线材和盘螺</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折（上期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折）；永钢</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8-3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">期计划量，螺纹</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折（上期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折），线材和盘螺全折（上期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折）。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月全月，沙钢螺纹执行</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折，永钢</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月上旬执行</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">折。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">从焦炭上看，环保带来的影响更加明显，从期货盘面上看，焦炭走势明显好于螺纹钢。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“焦炭价格主要受到汾渭平原环保督查影响。”资深黑色分析师李文婧对记者表示，汾渭平原焦炭总产能为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9643</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，粗钢产量为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4218</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，意味着大部分焦炭产能需要外销，因此当地焦炭产业对于环保检查更加敏感。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">华泰期货研究院黑色及建材研究员程霖表示，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份以后，唐山地区钢铁生产或许提前进入采暖季限产模式，全国其他地区</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月也将逐步进入冬季采暖限产状态，将导致焦炭需求明显萎缩。另一方面，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份焦化行业环保限产也将进入白热阶段。总体上，焦化行业限产力度将进一步加剧。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">但值得注意的是，从目前实际执行来看，限产方式仍以延长结焦时间为主，这对焦炭供给的压缩效果或将不如消费的萎缩。整体上看，焦炭价格将维持高位震荡，但难以继续拔高，且不排除随着供暖季临近，现货价格出现下跌。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">近远期预期分化</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“黑色系行情可以持续到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2019</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中期以后，不过也可能更早结束。”前述私募策略总监表示，宏观经济相对疲软仍会压制整体市场需求，最终导致供需紧平衡向供应过剩转变。“从时间上看，黑色系行情长度已经超出市场预期，当前政策面支撑更明显，但这方面的变化也可能更为迅速。”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">李文婧也表示，对于黑色系行情持续性存在担忧。从宏观面上看，内外价差缩窄趋势越来越明显，当下国外产品运抵国内后已经能和本土产品价格持平甚至略低，因此会压制国内产能出口。同时，东南亚等地产能也在快速增加。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">期货盘面上，近月合约相对远月合约也出现比较明显的升水结构。以螺纹钢期货为例，当前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1809</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4481</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1810</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4390</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，而</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1901</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约价格只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4160</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">值得注意的是，在焦炭期货价格攀上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2700</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨之后，大量产业客户入场套保，直接在盘面上卖出库存。前述私募策略总监认为，套保盘不仅压制了近期焦炭价格，也说明焦企对于长期价格没有更高预期。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">远期预期偏谨慎在股票市场体现更加明显。进入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份之后，虽然螺纹钢价格持续上涨，但申万钢铁指数持续震荡，并没有体现与螺纹钢价格同步的上涨趋势。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“股票更看长期的一个情况，黑色系毕竟是一个过剩产业，在当前情形下，高利润也就意味着高波动，也代表着未来利润一定会收缩。”李文婧表示。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">华东一家大型券商钢铁分析师对记者表示，当前影响钢铁股表现的主要因素是盈利的可持续性。“从市场供需角度来分析，在钢厂持续高利润的背景下，大量厂家会加大环保投入，同时海外产能也会增加，这些现象已经比较明显。”该分析师还表示，对于黑色系乐观中要时刻保持警惕。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>(关键字：黑色系 供给)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：01112）</div>