<h1>线螺周报（11.26-11.30）</h1>
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<span>2018-11-30 10:42:08</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>焦海达</span>
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<ul>
<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>全国规模以上工业利润增速已经从今年五六月份20%的水平收缩到10月的3.6%</li>
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<ul>
<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>线螺 周报</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">全国规模以上工业利润增速已经从今年五六月份</font>20%的水平收缩到10月的3.6%。钢铁的好</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">时光</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">结束了，中国钢铁生产商本月出现三年来首</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">次亏损</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">。</font>1-10月</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">份</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">，上游工业行业利润仍在增长，但幅度缩小</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">较快</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">，从单月看，</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">预计</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt">1</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt">2</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">月钢铁行业可能进入盈亏临界点甚至亏损的状态。原因是全球经济增长预期放缓、钢铁和石</font></span><span><a href="http://news.hexun.com/2012/2012cpy/"><span class="15" style="line-height: 150%; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-family: 宋体; background: rgb(255,255,255); color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-shading: rgb(255,255,255)"><font face="宋体">油价</font></span></a></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">格下降。</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">供需错位和价格暴跌直接</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">导致</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">了</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">钢铁</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">厂家</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">三年来首亏</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">。</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">上述钢铁石油等上游企业利润增速都在放缓，下游行业利润状况可想而知。</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">不过这些企业的</font>“好日子”也快要结束了。钢铁价格下跌，需求减弱，库存过剩，钢铁行业利润率开始下降，甚至一些企业开始蒙受损失。</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">唐山</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">地区</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">的螺纹钢每吨利润从</font>10月底的8</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt">90</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">元</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">左右</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">骤降至</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt">300</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">元</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">左右</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">。为</font>2015年11月以来首见，预计11月21日为每吨亏损1</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt">2</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt">0元</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">左右</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">。中国热轧钢卷生产商</font>11月下半月料录得每吨150元的亏损，上半月为每吨亏损200元</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">，</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">大多数螺纹钢生产商盈亏平衡。</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">但随着这个月需求开始趋弱，钢厂面临钢铁库存过剩</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">，</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">以全国最大的钢铁生产基地唐山为例，</font>11月27日钢坯价格为3040元/吨，相比10月27日下跌了近1000元。统计数据显示，2018年10月全国粗钢产量为0.82亿吨，年化为10亿吨，为有史以来的单月最高水平。考虑到目前汽车产销负增长，以及基建和</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">房地产</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">投资需求放慢，未来钢铁行业或进入新产能过剩周期。</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000; mso-pagination: none"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">我们认为</font></span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><font face="宋体">钢价未来的走势仍不乐观。</font>10月全国粗钢产量为历史单月最高，今年冬季限产幅度不大，供给明显增加。而目前基建、房地产和汽车等行业对钢铁需求降低，这都使得未来钢铁价格仍有下跌的可能，产能过剩的问题亦可能会重新出现。</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p>(关键字：线螺 周报)</p></div>
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