<h1>措辞有变 公开市场操作料适时重启</h1>
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<span>2019-3-8 8:08:45</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>焦海达</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>措辞有变 公开市场操作料适时重启</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>措辞有变 公开市场操作料适时重启</li>
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<div class="over_x"><h2 style="text-align: center; padding-bottom: 0px; line-height: 30px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); clear: both; font-size: 20px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"> </h2>
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<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">3月7日，3月首笔MLF(中期借贷便利)到期，央行公开市场操作保持静默，市场资金面亦无明显波动。不过，从央行公告措辞变化来看，流动性较前期已略有收敛。后续随着政府债券发行缴款增多，以及税期等因素影响显现，流动性或进一步收敛。有市场人士指出，下周大概率会见到公开市场操作重启。<br style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" />
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<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">资金面平稳偏松</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">7日，央行未开展公开市场操作。据数据，当天有1045亿元MLF到期，全部实现净回笼。自2月28日以来，央行已连续6个工作日未开展公开市场操作，期间共有2600亿元央行逆回购和1045亿元MLF到期，全部实现自然净回笼。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">交易员表示，在今年1月宣布降准时，央行已明确一季度到期的MLF不再续做。同时考虑到目前市场资金面仍较为平稳，央行未开展任何对冲操作也符合预期。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">7日，市场资金面表现平稳，MLF到期回笼未造成明显影响。当日银行间市场回购利率波动不大，DR001跌1bp至2.06%，代表性的DR007加权价报2.4%，上行不到1bp，DR014则续跌4bp至2.28%，与DR007形成倒挂。交易所方面，7日上交所债券质押式回购利率纷纷走低，GC001收盘跌破2%报1.955%，GC007跌12.5bp报2.21%，比DR007还要低出近20bp。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">前述交易员表示，目前不跨月资金均较为充足，银行等传统资金大户积极融出隔夜、7天等短期资金，1个月等跨月品种供给稍稍偏紧。虽然眼下资金面仍宽松，但也不能对后续可能出现的波动掉以轻心。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">中旬资金面恐承压</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">值得一提的是，与前几日公告所称的“处于较高水平”不同，7日央行公告在描述流动性时用的是“处于合理充裕水平”。这表明，因近期央行流动性工具到期回笼等影响，银行体系流动性总量已有所下降。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">本月中下旬流动性扰动因素将有所增多。一是政府债券发行缴款将增多。另外，本周共安排发行4只国债，国债发行也有加快迹象。政府债券发行缴款，会推高财政库款，从而形成流动性回笼效应。二是税期因素的影响将逐渐显现。3月虽是传统财政投放大月，但财政支出多集中在月末时点上，月中企业缴税对流动性还可能造成一定的影响。三是3月是季末月份，监管考核因素对流动性的影响仍不容忽视。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">往前看，随着上述因素的影响逐渐显现，流动性可能继续收敛。尤其是税期高峰前后，政府债券发行缴款、税期、MLF到期等因素可能产生叠加影响，流动性或加速收紧。有鉴于此，市场人士预计，下周大概率会见到公开市场操作重启。</p>
<p>(关键字：措辞有变 公开市场操作料适时重启)</p></div>
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