<h1>中国经济有望在二、三季度反弹 呈现前低后高态势</h1>
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<span>2019-3-18 8:29:21</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>焦海达</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>中国经济有望在二、三季度反弹 呈现前低后高态势</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>中国经济有望在二、三季度反弹 呈现前低后高态势</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">考虑到当前宏观政策已转向积极、国际贸易形势也有所好转，两大理由有助于帮助中国经济尽早筑底，未来随着政策发力特别是2万亿元减税降费的实质落地，预计中国经济有望在二、三季度迎来反弹。在笔者看来，2019年中国经济或将呈现前低后高的态势，全年有望实现6.3%左右的增速。<br style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" />
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<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">2019年以来，围绕“六稳”目标的政策措施纷至沓来，然而由于政策效果存在滞后性、经济结构性难题导致实体企业缺少鲜明的利润增长点，1月份-2月份中国大部分宏观经济数据仍然表现不佳，呈现疲软的现象。中国真正实现“六稳”还有多远？</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">考虑到当前宏观政策已转向积极、国际贸易形势也有所好转，两大理由有助于帮助中国经济尽早筑底，未来随着政策发力特别是2万亿元减税降费的实质落地，预计中国经济有望在二、三季度迎来反弹。在笔者看来，2019年中国经济或将呈现前低后高的态势，全年有望实现6.3%左右的增速。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">房地产相关消费回落</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">是主要拖累</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">今年开年消费仍然疲软。1月份-2月份社会消费品零售总额同比增速8.2%，与去年12月份基本持平，但与去年汽车消费是主要拖累有所不同。1月份-2月份汽车消费有所改善，同比增速-2.8%，较去年12月份降幅收窄5.7个百分点；但受房地产销售回落影响，房地产相关消费整体表现不佳，建筑及装潢材料类、家具消费、家电消费同比增速分别为6.6%、0.7%、3.3%。此外，日用品、粮油食品、中西药品等必选消费较前期略有下滑，化妆品、文化办公、通讯器材等消费表现相对较好。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">在笔者看来，当前居民消费回落与同期经济下行，就业预期不稳、前期消费信贷受到规范等因素有关，虽然今年“两会”以及早前十部委联合推出稳消费措施，如制定旧汽车、旧家电的回收政策、推动老旧汽车报废更新、继续执行新能源汽车购置政策、加快开展“5G”商用部署等等，但是，相比于十年前，本轮稳消费政策面临财政预算约束、政策边际效应递减以及骗补、套利等道德风险多重因素的制约，若想促进消费的明显回升，还需后续税收减免、收入分配调整以及农村土地制度改革等政策利好落地。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">政策发力之下</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">基建投资略有反弹</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">基建提速带动投资略有反弹。1月份-2月份，固定资产投资同比增长6.1%，较2018年全年提升0.2%。但在拉动投资的三驾马车中，制造业投资表现不佳，仅增长5.9%，较上月下降3.6%，基建投资小幅反弹，房地产投资明显好于预期。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">从制造业投资来看，主要传统制造业如农副食品加工、有色金属冶炼压延加工、铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备等仍表现不佳，1月份-2月份均为负增长；高新技术制造业投资也出现分化，专用设备制造业、通用设备制造业仍保持高位增长，电气机械和器材制造业，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业投资1月份-2月份增速则出现大幅下滑，相比去年的两位数增长，开年分别为-2.2%、-2.6%。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">得益于政策利好，基建投资有小幅反弹。1月份-2月份同比增长4.3%，比2018年全年提高0.5个百分点。在笔者看来，这或与近期基建项目加速审批、地方项目集中开工的情况相符，基建补短板，托底投资与经济的效果开始逐步显现；其中，道路运输业投资增长13%，增速提高4.8个百分点，铁路运输业投资更是大幅增长22.5%，提示了当前基建补短板的重点方向。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">房地产投资有所反弹</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">但市场仍处于降温之中</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">1月份-2月份全国房地产开发投资同比增长11.6%，较去年全年增长2.1%，其中，住宅投资贡献较大，增速达到18%，比去年全年提升4.6个百分点；房地产投资反弹令人意外，根据国家统计局解释，1月份-2月份房地产投资加快主要有两个原因，一是前期土地的购置费增长比较快；二是今年以来房地产企业施工进度有所加快。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">实际上，1月份-2月份新开工面积增速已出现明显下滑，与投资增速出现背离，仅为6%；房地产竣工面积则仍保持同比两位数下滑。销售方面，开年后市场仍在降温，1月份-2月份全国商品房销售面积下降3.6%，销售额则增长2.8%，市场仍然有价无市。同时，房企资金面仍紧，到位资金增速下滑至2.1%；2019年进入房企偿债高峰，需高度关注房企现金流状况。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">整体来看，后续新开工如果表现不佳，有可能会影响投资表现；2019年房地产调控政策已基本定调，逐步回归中性后，市场波动将会减弱；而随着棚改货币化的退出，一线、二线城市与三线、四线城市的走势可能出现分化。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">工业生产表现不佳</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">与制造业投资下滑趋势一致</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">1月份-2月份工业增加值同比增长5.3%，较上期数据下滑0.4%，创去年2月以来新低。三大门类来看，采矿业增加值增速仅0.3%，相比去年12月份下滑3.3%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增速从9.6%回落至6.8%，制造业则小幅回升0.1%至5.6%。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">主要工业产品数据改观不大，其中，工业机器人、智能手机均下滑10%以上；汽车产量增速仍垫底，1月份-2月份下降15.1%，但与汽车制造业投资增速出现了一定背离，近期政策效果或正从投资端向生产端传导。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">总体来看，2019年开年中国宏观数据仍然呈现下滑态势，但基建投资有所反弹，消费也保持基本稳定，制造业投资下滑需要关注，房地产投资反弹未必可以持续。当然，1月份-2月份由于存在春节因素，可能会影响到春节前后的开工天数与经济生产活动，造成一定程度上的数据扭曲，更为明朗的经济走势判断，还需结合3月份经济数据综合来看。</p>
<p> </p>
<p>(关键字：中国经济有望在二、三季度反弹 呈现前低后高态势)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：01189）</div>