<h1>2019年10月建筑钢材月报</h1>
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<span>2019-11-5 10:09:37</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>吴海迪</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>建筑钢材月报</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>建筑钢材 月报</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">一、国际市场概述</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10<font face="宋体">月国际钢市偏弱运行。</font><font face="Calibri">CRU</font><font face="宋体">国际钢价综合指数为</font><font face="Calibri">178.5</font><font face="宋体">，月环比减少</font><font face="Calibri">0.94%</font><font face="宋体">，年同比减少</font><font face="Calibri">16.3%</font><font face="宋体">，</font><font face="Calibri">CRU</font><font face="宋体">长材指数为</font><font face="Calibri">223.1</font><font face="宋体">。欧洲市场，欧盟钢铁业表示</font><font face="Calibri">2019</font><font face="宋体">年需求还会有所下降，进口量已翻了一番多；美国市场，美国国内钢铁制造商周度产能利用率为</font><font face="Calibri">78.7%</font><font face="宋体">，较去年同期有所下降，较上周</font><font face="Calibri">78%</font><font face="宋体">有所上升；亚洲市场，市场本月钢价偏强运行，‘银十’下游需求较好，贸易商心态尚可，本月钢价偏强运行，下月需求会有所减量，贸易商对后市均持谨慎观望态度，综合来看，短期内国际钢材市场或将震荡偏弱运行。</font><font face="Calibri"> </font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">二、国内市场动态</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1. <font face="宋体">国内市场变动情况</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">国内综述：十月全国建材现货价格呈现前高后低的走势，全国大多数地区的建材现货价格下跌额度介于</font>30-200<font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨不等，跌价主要还是受限于国庆工地停工以及交通受阻等因素影响，十月虽然终端需求表现出极强的韧性，但由于九月钢价出现较大幅度的反弹，十月份的上涨空间在一定程度上已被透支。另一方面，在</font><font face="Calibri">70</font><font face="宋体">周年大庆后，京津冀地区的环保限产解除，供给方面的恢复让市场感到不安。期螺市场整体先跌后涨，供应端来看，部分地区钢厂陆续复产，且随着北方地区转冷，部分北材开始南下，然目前南北差价不大，南方北材流通量不大。华东地区近期受进博会影响市场到货资源大幅减小，规格缺失严重，月末厂商均挺价，总体来说十月需求不及九月，不过仍处于全年的需求旺季。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2.<font face="宋体">成本分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">本月盈利空间较上月窄幅缩减，据测算，截至</font>10<font face="宋体">月</font><font face="Calibri">31</font><font face="宋体">日，国内中小钢企</font><font face="Calibri">20mm</font><font face="宋体">三级螺纹钢盈利空间为正</font><font face="Calibri">120</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨，较上月末（正</font><font face="Calibri">126</font><font face="宋体">）盈利负增长</font><font face="Calibri">6</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨；</font><font face="Calibri">8-10mm</font><font face="宋体">高线盈利空间为正</font><font face="Calibri">305</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨，较上月（正</font><font face="Calibri">337</font><font face="宋体">）盈利空间负增长</font><font face="Calibri">32</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨。</font><font face="Calibri">10</font><font face="宋体">月来看，整体需求释放不及预期，叠加期货走势欠佳，高位成交跟进有限，市场出货氛围浓，钢价主流震荡偏弱调整，钢企盈利空间窄幅减少，</font><font face="Calibri">11</font><font face="宋体">月来看，现部分厂商仍有一定检修计划，市场供给受限，部分规格短缺情况暂未有好转，对当前钢价形成一定支撑，且前期不断弱跌，商家心态疲软，过多调整意愿不大，然随气温逐步下降，整体需求进入淡季，交投氛围或有限，综合考虑，预计下月钢价走势或为前高后低，下月中小钢企盈利空间整体或窄幅小降。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">3.<font face="宋体">产能及产量分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">据数据显示，</font>9<font face="宋体">月份螺纹钢产量</font><font face="Calibri">2127.3,</font><font face="宋体">较上月同比下跌</font><font face="Calibri">2.90%,</font><font face="宋体">年同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">16.37%,</font><font face="宋体">线材产量</font><font face="Calibri">1376</font><font face="宋体">，较上月同比下跌</font><font face="Calibri">24.4%,</font><font face="宋体">年同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">6.43%;2019</font><font face="宋体">年</font><font face="Calibri">1-9</font><font face="宋体">月份我国粗钢、生铁 和钢材产量分别为</font><font face="Calibri">74680.17</font><font face="宋体">万吨、</font><font face="Calibri">54439.6</font><font face="宋体">万吨和</font><font face="Calibri">90245.69</font><font face="宋体">万吨。其中</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份我国粗钢、生铁和钢材产量分别为</font><font face="Calibri">8277</font><font face="宋体">万吨、</font><font face="Calibri">7117.4</font><font face="宋体">万吨和</font><font face="Calibri">10437</font><font face="宋体">万吨，较</font><font face="Calibri">8</font><font face="宋体">月份同比粗钢下跌</font><font face="Calibri">5.13%</font><font face="宋体">，生铁增长</font><font face="Calibri">4.19%</font><font face="宋体">，钢材下跌</font><font face="Calibri">1.90%</font><font face="宋体">。综合来看，九月恰好进入需求旺季，从而带动终端补库需求的强势回归；另一方面，国庆</font><font face="Calibri">70</font><font face="宋体">周年大庆前，京津冀地区的环保限产力度趋严，且限产范围扩大至周边省份。强劲的需求加上供给的收缩，推升钢价逐级而上，随着钢价反弹过程中，吨钢利润的逐步恢复，电炉厂陆续恢复生产，带来部分增量；考虑到价格低且有节前“赶工”的情况存在，十月有部分需求被前置到九月，需求总量较九月会有适度收缩，综上所述，料下月产量较本月有所上升。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">4.<font face="宋体">螺线总库存变化</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10<font face="宋体">月国内建材总库存量降幅显着。截至</font><font face="Calibri">10</font><font face="宋体">月</font><font face="Calibri">31</font><font face="宋体">日为止，全国线螺社会库存总量约为</font><font face="Calibri">509.42</font><font face="宋体">万吨，整体环比减少</font><font face="Calibri">19.41%</font><font face="宋体">，上月减少</font><font face="Calibri">19.51%</font><font face="宋体">，同比增加</font><font face="Calibri">2.11%</font><font face="宋体">；其中螺纹总量约为</font><font face="Calibri">371.06</font><font face="宋体">万吨，环比减少</font><font face="Calibri">22.66%</font><font face="宋体">，上月减少</font><font face="Calibri">21.17%</font><font face="宋体">，同比减少</font><font face="Calibri">1.75%</font><font face="宋体">；线材总量约为</font><font face="Calibri">138.36</font><font face="宋体">万吨，环比减少</font><font face="Calibri">9.14%</font><font face="宋体">，上月减少</font><font face="Calibri">13.8%</font><font face="宋体">，同比增加</font><font face="Calibri">14.17%</font><font face="宋体">。本月来看，国庆节后，北方环保限产并未放松，整体到货速度有所放缓，社库持续大幅下滑，需求端仍存一定韧性。后市来看，随着天气逐步转冷，下游工地开工受限，届时需求端收缩，加之周度产量持续增加，供需博弈，故预计下月库存数据降幅放缓。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">5.<font face="宋体">进出口分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">进口分析：</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2019<font face="宋体">年</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份我国钢材进口量为</font><font face="Calibri">111.3</font><font face="宋体">万吨，</font><font face="Calibri">1-9</font><font face="宋体">月为</font><font face="Calibri">875.1</font><font face="宋体">万吨。与去年同期相比减少</font><font face="Calibri">12.2%</font><font face="宋体">。我国进口钢材主要以板材为主，多用于高端机械制造。</font><font face="Calibri">2019</font><font face="宋体">年</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份，中国制造业采购经理指数</font><font face="Calibri">(PMI)</font><font face="宋体">为</font><font face="Calibri">49.8%</font><font face="宋体">，比上月回升</font><font face="Calibri">0.3</font><font face="宋体">个百分点。从分类指数看，生产指数为</font><font face="Calibri">52.3%</font><font face="宋体">，比上月上升</font><font face="Calibri">0.4</font><font face="宋体">个百分点，高于临界点，表明制造业生产扩张有所加快。原材料库存指数为</font><font face="Calibri">47.6%</font><font face="宋体">，比上月略升</font><font face="Calibri">0.1</font><font face="宋体">个百分点，位于临界点之下，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅略有收窄。综合考虑预计十月份进口量将继续减少。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">出口分析：</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2019<font face="宋体">年</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份我国钢材出口量为</font><font face="Calibri">533</font><font face="宋体">万吨，</font><font face="Calibri">1-9</font><font face="宋体">月为</font><font face="Calibri">5030.5</font><font face="宋体">万吨。与去年同期相比减少</font><font face="Calibri">5%</font><font face="宋体">。</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份国内旺季需求释放增加，钢市价格表现为前高后低，总体偏强状态。库存持续下降，有较多规格短缺。而与此同时我国出口钢材在价格走势上却稳中偏弱运行，价格上也无优势，钢企出口意愿较弱。且</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份人民币略有升值，进一步抑制钢企出口积极性。综合考虑，预计十月份我国钢材出口会有一定程度的下降。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">6.<font face="宋体">下游需求分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1.<font face="宋体">基础设施建设</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <font face="宋体">根据交通运输部最新数据核算，</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份，全国交通固定资产投资同比下滑</font><font face="Calibri">0.02%</font><font face="宋体">，较</font><font face="Calibri">8</font><font face="宋体">月份增速回落</font><font face="Calibri">1</font><font face="宋体">个百分点；环比增长</font><font face="Calibri">17.07%</font><font face="宋体">，较</font><font face="Calibri">8</font><font face="宋体">月份增速提升</font><font face="Calibri">11.09</font><font face="宋体">个百分点。另据统计局数据显示，</font><font face="Calibri">1-9</font><font face="宋体">月份，全国城镇固定资产投资同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">5.4%</font><font face="宋体">，增速比</font><font face="Calibri">1-8</font><font face="宋体">月份回落</font><font face="Calibri">0.1</font><font face="宋体">个百分点；基础设施投资同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">4.5%</font><font face="宋体">，增速比</font><font face="Calibri">1-8</font><font face="宋体">月份加快</font><font face="Calibri">0.3</font><font face="宋体">个百分点。从以上数据可以看出，</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份交通投资的环比增速呈现季节性回升，但是同比增速承压，而基建投资的增速也在</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份有所加快。</font><font face="Calibri">10</font><font face="宋体">月份新一轮稳增长信号释放，从国务院到相关部委，再到各省区均释放出把稳增长放在更加突出的位置的信号，“宽财政</font><font face="Calibri">+</font><font face="宋体">稳货币”组合拳在四季度将持续发力。加之受年底基建冲刺投资进度等的提振，相关基建投资仍有增长空间，对螺线等用钢需求构成支撑，但是随着北方等地区气温的明显降低，淡季氛围愈加浓厚，中期内整体钢需将逐步趋弱。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2.<font face="宋体">房地产市场</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">统计局最新数据显示，</font>1-9<font face="宋体">月份，商品房销售面积同比下降</font><font face="Calibri">0.1%</font><font face="宋体">，降幅比</font><font face="Calibri">1-8</font><font face="宋体">月份收窄</font><font face="Calibri">0.5</font><font face="宋体">个百分点；房屋竣工面积下降</font><font face="Calibri">8.6%</font><font face="宋体">，降幅收窄</font><font face="Calibri">1.4</font><font face="宋体">个百分点；房地产开发企业土地购置面积同比下降</font><font face="Calibri">20.2%</font><font face="宋体">，降幅收窄</font><font face="Calibri">5.4</font><font face="宋体">个百分点。另外，房地产开发企业到位资金同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">7.1%</font><font face="宋体">，增速加快</font><font face="Calibri">0.5</font><font face="宋体">个百分点；房地产开发景气指数比</font><font face="Calibri">8</font><font face="宋体">月份提高</font><font face="Calibri">0.14</font><font face="宋体">点；全国房地产开发投资同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">10.5%</font><font face="宋体">，增速与</font><font face="Calibri">1-8</font><font face="宋体">月持平。以上指标多数改善，不过，</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份旺季新屋开工增速反而回落，房屋新开工面积增长</font><font face="Calibri">8.6%</font><font face="宋体">，增速回落</font><font face="Calibri">0.3</font><font face="宋体">个百分点；房地产开发企业房屋施工面积同比增长</font><font face="Calibri">8.7%</font><font face="宋体">，增速回落</font><font face="Calibri">0.1</font><font face="宋体">个百分点。今年的“金九”明显成色不足，“金九”的余热难以撼动楼市“降温”的大势。</font><font face="Calibri">9</font><font face="宋体">月份</font><font face="Calibri">70</font><font face="宋体">城中，新房、二手房价格环比上涨的城市数量皆为今年以来最少，价格环比下降的城市数量则为今年以来最多。虽然短期内的需求仍有韧性，但由于调控政策不放松，加之施工淡季到来，预计后期房地产相关建材消费维持平淡。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">7<font face="宋体">、钢厂调价分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10<font face="宋体">月钢厂政策稳涨跌均现。月初旺季下游需求释放尚可，终端多按需补库，加之成本端表现坚挺，钢厂挺价意愿较为浓厚，指导价格整体稳中上扬。而中下旬期螺走势震荡，现货观望情绪愈发浓厚，且商家对后市预期普遍看空，操作上多积极出货降库为主，市价偏弱震荡。后市来看，进入秋冬季，各地区环保限产不断趋严，河北、山东、山西等各地区纷纷启动重污染天气应急预案，钢厂开工率偏低，整体库存压力不大，且部分市场资源出现断货情况，厂商挺价意愿强烈，然天气渐寒，尤其北方资源多数南下，需求释放不及预期，商家心态仍较为谨慎，综合考虑，预计下月钢厂政策整体稳中偏强。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">三．期货市场分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1<font face="宋体">、期螺综述及技术分析</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <font face="宋体">截止</font><font face="Calibri">10</font><font face="宋体">月</font><font face="Calibri">31</font><font face="宋体">日，期螺主力</font><font face="Calibri">RB2001</font><font face="宋体">合约开盘</font><font face="Calibri">3458</font><font face="宋体">，最高</font><font face="Calibri">3458</font><font face="宋体">，最低</font><font face="Calibri">3256</font><font face="宋体">，收盘</font><font face="Calibri">3367</font><font face="宋体">，收盘价较上月跌</font><font face="Calibri">103</font><font face="宋体">，跌幅为</font><font face="Calibri">2.97%</font><font face="宋体">，成交</font><font face="Calibri">60465194</font><font face="宋体">手，月末持仓为</font><font face="Calibri">3195424</font><font face="宋体">手。 </font><font face="Calibri">10</font><font face="宋体">月期螺呈现先跌后底部小幅反弹格局。由于适逢国庆，交易日期较其余月份偏少。从技术指标来看，日</font><font face="Calibri">K</font><font face="宋体">线一度跌破</font><font face="Calibri">BOLL</font><font face="宋体">下轨，目前处于</font><font face="Calibri">BOLL</font><font face="宋体">中轨下方，</font><font face="Calibri">KDJ</font><font face="宋体">高位拐头向下，</font><font face="Calibri">MACD</font><font face="宋体">处于红柱区间；周线图</font><font face="Calibri">KDJ</font><font face="宋体">位于</font><font face="Calibri">30</font><font face="宋体">附近，</font><font face="Calibri">MACD</font><font face="宋体">绿柱略收窄。综合考虑，期螺短期有涨幅过大趋势，中长期指标表现有所好转。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2<font face="宋体">、下月期螺市场预判及策略</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <font face="宋体">预计</font><font face="Calibri">11</font><font face="宋体">月期螺或涨后回来，主要运行区间为</font><font face="Calibri">3300-3400,11</font><font face="宋体">月投资者上半月应以波段操作思路为主，中旬以后见机转空，总仓位控制在</font><font face="Calibri">20%</font><font face="宋体">以内。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font face="宋体">四、下月趋势预判</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric; mso-pagination: none; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0000"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <font face="宋体">对于十一月行情，我们预计或为前高后低的走势，主要原因如下，（一）、从利多的角度来看：</font><font face="Calibri">1</font><font face="宋体">、短期河北、山东、江苏、安徽等地受空气污染影响，环保限产和钢厂检修的情况有所增加；</font><font face="Calibri">2</font><font face="宋体">、当前的下游需求仍然表现出较强的韧性，使得社会库存进一步去化；</font><font face="Calibri">3</font><font face="宋体">、在当前利润情况下，部分短流程钢厂减产，供给端基本保持稳定，进一步大幅上行的概率较小； （二）、从利空的角度来看：</font><font face="Calibri">1</font><font face="宋体">、十一月随着气温下降，需求必然会进一步走弱，导致供给被动显强，钢价承压 ；</font><font face="Calibri">2</font><font face="宋体">、多地严查超载后，市场发运的效率受到一定的影响，导致在途资源积压在中转站；</font><font face="Calibri">3</font><font face="宋体">、十月制造业</font><font face="Calibri">PMI</font><font face="宋体">数据环比回落且不及预期，宏观经济仍有下行压力。综上所述，我们预计十一月行情或为前高后低的走势，下跌幅度大约在</font><font face="Calibri">50-110</font><font face="宋体">元</font><font face="Calibri">/</font><font face="宋体">吨。</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p>(关键字：建筑钢材 月报)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：01202）</div>