<h1>2015楼市预测：房价继续降40% 房企淘汰</h1>
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	<span>2015-2-11 10:12:00</span>来源：<span>每日经济新闻</span>作者：<span></span>
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			<li>对于一、二线城市房价将继续下滑预测，报告列举的主要原因包括：市场投资属性过高，住房空置严重；居民投资理财渠道增加，住房投资全面退热，单靠刚性需求或改善性需求难以消化已有商品库存和支持房价上涨。</li>
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			<li>2015楼市预测：房价继续降40% 房企淘汰</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">日前，中国社科院财经院、城市与竞争力研究中心及社会科学文献出版社共同发布的《住房绿皮书：中国住房发展报告（2014~2015）》预测：</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">1.限购政策有望全面退出，中国房价以软着陆为主；</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">2.一二线城市房价的继续下滑将是大概率事件；</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">3.万科等地产寡头格局初现雏形；</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">4.未来一半以上房地产开发商将转行或在市场中消失；</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">5.高端住房市场需求将受到抑制。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">以下是具体解读。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none"><strong style="outline: none">一二线城市房价还会降</strong></p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">对于一、二线城市房价将继续下滑预测，报告列举的主要原因包括：市场投资属性过高，住房空置严重；居民投资理财渠道增加，住房投资全面退热，单靠刚性需求或改善性需求难以消化已有商品库存和支持房价上涨。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">&ldquo;住房限购或将全面放开，住房价格将走下神坛。&rdquo;报告称，目前，仍有北京、上海、广州、深圳四个一线城市及三亚由于其需求结构的特殊性尚在执行限购政策。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">未来一年，一、二线城市房价的继续下滑将是大概率事件。随着房地产市场不景气及调控政策的主方向向支持住房消费转变，仍在坚守限购的五个城市有望在一年内全面放开。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">&ldquo;住房限购全面放开后，住房市场&lsquo;供不应求'的假设难以立足，房价只涨不跌的神话将完全破灭。&rdquo;报告称。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">三、四线城市楼市已经经过一段时间的调整，且三、四线城市以中西部城市为主体，其经济增速要快于全国平均值，因而房价不太可能出现急速下跌，总体仍是稳中有降。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">未来住房市场将进入中速增长的常态，中国房地产进入&ldquo;白银时代&rdquo;。2015年的住房市场走势：整体延续衰退，一二线城市2015年下半年、三四线城市2016年下半年复苏。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none"><strong style="outline: none">楼市有望实现软着陆</strong></p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">2015年，中央和地方政府将密集推出救市政策，楼市有望实现软着陆。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">课题组分析认为，未来中央和地方政府有望推出的救市政策包括：全面取消住房限购政策；进一步放宽二套及以上住房的按揭贷款条件；</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">进一步降低住房交易税费包括营业税、契税、个人所得税等；政府收购过剩的商品住房用作保障房之用；加大旧城区及棚户区改造以扩张需求、减少供给；进一步放宽购房落户政策等。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">总体而言，密集救市政策的推出对于缓解市场恐慌、避免房价硬着陆有积极的作用，可以有效防止楼市崩盘。但是在住房投资收益过低、住房供给相对过剩的大环境下，即便政府强力刺激，房地产市场也将风光不再。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">城市人口流入的宏观拐点尚未出现，房价不会整体崩盘。从人口流向拐点看，中国作为发展极不平衡的大国，人口的城镇化、大城市化、郊区化、逆城市化等看似相互矛盾的动力层层递补、并存交错，因而宏观总量上的人口流向拐点目前其实是不存在的。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none"><strong style="outline: none">万科等地产寡头格局初现雏形</strong></p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">虽然2013~2014年度房地产市场整体行情黯淡，但万科、恒大等一批领军企业依旧业绩斐然。万科前三季度销售额接近1500亿元，恒大销售面积也超过1300万平方米；</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">更值得注意的是，龙头房企的销售额、销售面积的增速均远高于整体市场的负增长水平，其中部分房企2013~2014年度的销售额与销售面积增速甚至高于2012~2013年度增长水平，逆市增长势头强劲。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">统计结果显示，2014年前三季度销售额最多同时也是销售面积最大的七家千亿级房企包括：万科地产、绿地集团、恒大集团、保利集团、碧桂园、中海地产、万达集团。无论是销售额还是销售面积，前十名、前三十名房企近几年业绩的增长势头都保持稳健。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">虽然2013年全面回暖的市场行情没有为这些领军企业的业绩带来预期之中的突飞猛进，但2012年与2014年市场下行的不利环境也并未对其造成明显的负面影响。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">规模相对较小房企的业绩则出现了明显分化，华润置地、首开股份等公司的业绩均有明显下滑；旭辉、阳光城等周转速率较快的房企则实现了业绩较快增长。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">在房地产市场容量缩减的同时，大型房企仍然保持平稳较快的业绩增长率，这也就意味着小型房企正在被加速挤出。全面下行的市场环境促使房地产行业加速整合，2013~2014年度行业集中度急速提升。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none"><strong style="outline: none">30%-40%房企或遭到淘汰</strong></p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">在房地产业起步初期的&ldquo;黄金时代&rdquo;，急速膨胀的市场规模和与之伴随的巨大利润空间吸引了大量资本涌入，许多效率低下、管理落后的开发商仅依靠个别项目或买卖土地就能坐享高额利润。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">然而，随着房地产市场规制和监管措施的逐步完善，市场竞争强度已逐步升级；尤其进入2014年以来市场供求矛盾逐渐凸显，在交易萎缩、库存积压的条件下，规模小、效益差的房企更会加速失去其赖以生存的狭小市场空间。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">据国家统计局公布的数据，2012年房地产开发企业个数达到89859家。随着2013-2014年度房地产市场下行与行业集中度的大幅提升，数量巨大但竞争力较弱的中小型房企纷纷主动或被迫退市，房企数量明显减少。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">预计两年内会有30%~40%的房企遭到淘汰，而且数量缩减的趋势短期内不可能出现反弹。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">房地产行业的萎靡形势与逐渐下滑的利润率同样促使大量主营业务非房地产业的企业加速退出，诸如华东医药、北大荒、水井坊等来自医药生物、食品饮料、农林牧渔等行业的多家上市公司均已全面剥离房地产业务或明确表示即将退出。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none"><strong style="outline: none">高端地产将承压</strong></p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">世界发达经济体在2014~2015年将呈现结构性复苏，美国经济反弹将与欧元区和日本的经济低迷共存。绿皮书预计，东亚和东南亚较低的经济增速将抑制中国住房市场，房地产企业的海外投资则会削弱境内的住房市场供给。</p>
<p style="border-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; overflow: visible; text-transform: none; border-left: 0px; color: rgb(51,51,51); text-indent: 28px; padding-top: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; white-space: normal; list-style-type: none; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); orphans: auto; widows: auto; webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; outline: none">此外，海外置业将抑制我国的高端住房市场需求，预计世界经济对中国住房市场的影响总体是负面的，一二线城市，尤其是一二线城市的高端住房市场将承受较大的冲击。</p>
<p>(关键字：2015楼市预测：房价继续降40% 房企淘汰)</p></div>
	<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：00886）</div>