<h1>11月金融数据惊喜与惊讶并存 房贷比重攀升至84%</h1>
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<span>2016-12-15 8:31:13</span>来源：<span>转载</span>作者：<span></span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>央行14日发布的11月金融统计报告令人惊喜，也让人有些惊讶。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>金融 数据 房贷</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">央行</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">14</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">日发布的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月<b>金融</b>统计报告令人惊喜，也让人有些惊讶。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">惊喜的原因是，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2016</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年政府工作报告中提出了“两个</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">13%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”的货币政策调控目标，即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">M2</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">（广义货币）增速</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">13%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，社会融资规模余额增速</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">13%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。而根据央行公布的<b>数据</b>，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月末社会融资规模存量为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">154.36</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">万亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">13.3%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，已完成了上述两大目标的其中之一。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">此外，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月社会融资规模同比出现了大幅增长。民生银行</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(9.850, 0.18, 1.86%)</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">首席研究员温彬对第一财经记者表示，从上述数据可以看出，实体经济正在企稳，因此企业的融资需求也在逐渐增大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">惊讶是因为，在多地出台楼市调控政策后，居民住<b>房贷</b>款数据的表现依旧强劲。数据显示，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月住户部门新增贷款中的中长期贷款（主要是房贷）比重从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">75%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">进一步攀升至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">84%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，大幅高于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">47%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。另一个出人意料的数据是，在人民币对美元持续贬值、未来贬值压力依然很大的背景下，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月外币贷款反而增加了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">20</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元，这是近两个月外币贷款首度出现正值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">实体经济回暖</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">央行发布的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月金融统计报告显示，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份社会融资规模增量为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1.74</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">万亿元，比去年同期大增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">7111</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元。这与表外信贷比重加大有很大关系。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">根据央行数据，除了对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">8463</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元，同比少增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">410</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元外，委托贷款、信托贷款、未贴现的银行承兑汇票、非金融企业境内股票融资都出现增长。其中，委托贷款增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1994</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元，同比多增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1083</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元；信托贷款增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1625</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元，同比多增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1926</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“当银行端表内融资不能够满足银行贷款需求时，表外例如信托融资，委托贷款比前期有快速上升，支持了企业融资需求，对支持企业复苏起到关键性作用。”温彬说。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">未贴现的银行承兑汇票在增加也印证了这一点。数据显示，未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1173</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元，同比多增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">3718</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元。一位票据行业资深市场人士对第一财经记者表示，现在经济出现向好，企业签票意愿肯定有所提升。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">不过，在上述票据专业人士看来，银行承兑票据增量主要在银行表内，不然无法统计。但存量银行承兑汇票既有在表内也有表外，一些银行将银行承兑汇票卖断以削减信贷规模。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">温彬对第一财经记者表示，从数据来看，企业通过银行的信贷变动并不大，但企业的贷款需求在增加，且是通过银行表外的方式（委托贷款、信托）来实现融资目标。受资本金、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">MPA</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">考核等因素约束，银行表内信贷增长不会太明显。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">多名知情人士向第一财经记者证实，中央经济工作会议已于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">14</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">日在北京召开。会议将决定</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2017</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年经济发展和改革的方向、目标及政策取向、工作重点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">展望未来，我国经济运行不可能是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">U</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">型，更不可能是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">V</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">型，而是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">L</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">型的走势。经过调整后，中国经济将进入质量更高、效益更好、更可持续的新的发展阶段。根据新华社报道，有媒体对权威经济学家的观点进行了调查，对于今年三季度的中国经济，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">54%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">的经济学家认为已经达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">L</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">型“竖杠”末端，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">38%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">认为已经进入“横杠”，只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">8%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">认为尚未到达“竖杠”末端。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">房贷何时放缓</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月人民币贷款增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">7946</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元，同比多增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">857</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元。如果分部门看，住户部门贷款增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">6796</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元。一般情况下，住户部门中长期贷款以房贷为主，而</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月这部分的增量为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">5692</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元，较</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">4891</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿元大幅增长，占住户部门贷款的比重为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">84%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，高于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">75%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">47%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">7</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月，住户部门新增贷款占人民币新增贷款的比重曾突破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">100%</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，引发了市场对于房地产泡沫的担忧。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月末、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月初，一些房地产过热城市出台了一系列楼市调控政策。从上述数据可以发现，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的房贷数据依然表现强劲。“看来</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份银行依然加大了居民住房贷款的力度。”温彬表示，但也可能是数据迟滞的原因。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">中金研究分析认为，在限购、限贷等力度加大的情况下，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份金融数据仍主要反映房地产相关融资的滞后表现，随着房地产调控和资金面偏紧等因素，未来贷款和社融增长可能会有所放缓。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">东方证券</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(15.550, -0.31, -1.95%)</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">首席经济学家邵宇对第一财经记者表示，从房贷数据看，还没有明显回落的迹象，但是楼市交易量肯定会下降。由于严格的楼市政策还是会持续很长一段时间，甚至不排除可能还会加码。在这样的背景下，政策的注意力可能需要转移到对杠杆的调控和对泡沫风险的控制上来。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月金融数据的另一大亮点便是外币贷款增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">20</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元，这是近两个月外币贷款首度出现正值。此前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月外币贷款减少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">41</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月外币贷款减少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">53</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">在美联储加息等各类预期及因素的影响下，人民币对美元贬值预期空前加大，资金流出压力也不小。第一财经记者采访发现，当前资金流出结构中，对外直接投资、居民境外旅游、子女上学，以及企业偿还外债都占据相当大比重，可谓资金流出“三巨头”。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">而按照上述金融数据，外币贷款增加表明，企业在人民币贬值预期下偿还外债、造成资本流出的情况出现好转。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 120%; text-align: left; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“到了今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">6</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份之后，形势已经发生改变，企业外债有所上升，我们观察到企业外债去杠杆化进程基本结束。”一位接近央行的人士对第一财经记者表示。数据显示，今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">3</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月末外币外债为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">7600</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元，到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月末已达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">8500</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元，上升了近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1000</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">亿美元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">中国金融期货交易所研究院研究员赵庆明表示，资本流出是多方面原因造成的，而非某一个原因，当前最主要的原因还是企业境外投资及家庭持有外汇存款。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：金融 数据 房贷)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：00908）</div>