<h2 class="newsinfo_title">石墨电极：库存高企后的石墨电极市场分析及预测</h2>
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		  <li>2012-9-12 17:06:57</li>    
		  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
		  <li>作者：杨雪</li>
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					  <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
					  <td>受下游钢铁、金属硅、黄磷企业减停产增多，下游企业开工率低，出口受阻等因素的影响，石墨电极企业面临越来越大的销售压力。随着时间的推移，石墨电极库存量自年初以来呈逐月递增的趋势。</td>
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					  <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
					  <td>石墨电极 石墨电极市场分析   石墨电极库存</td>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><font face="宋体">受下游钢铁、金属硅、黄磷企业减停产增多，下游企业开工率低，出口受阻等因素的影响，石墨电极企业面临越来越大的销售压力。随着时间的推移，石墨电极库存量自年初以来呈逐月递增的趋势。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><font face="宋体">据中华商务网分析，石墨电极库存量和年初相比增幅近<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>，其中普通功率石墨电极和高功率石墨电极，受下游金属硅和黄磷开工率低的影响，企业今年库存量和去年相比增幅<span lang="EN-US">60-70%</span>。今年西南地区丰水期，黄磷的开工率云南地区<span lang="EN-US">70%</span>、贵州地区<span lang="EN-US">40% </span>四川地区<span lang="EN-US">60% </span>，与和去年同期相比黄磷的开工率下降<span lang="EN-US">10-15%</span>。金属硅今年丰水期，湖南、贵州几乎全部停产，四川开工率<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>，云南地区开工率<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>，与去年同期金属硅的开工率下降<span lang="EN-US">20-30%</span>。超高功率石墨电极库存量目前增幅不是很明显，大概在<span lang="EN-US">3%</span>左右。其主要原因，一是超高功率石墨电极所供应的钢种（例如不锈钢）市场需求缩减程度有限，二是国内超高功率石墨电极供应量增幅不明显，新增产能尚未投放市场，三是原料针状焦价格上涨明显，但超高石墨电极价格却不增反减，抑制了国内超高功率石墨电极产量的增幅，据中华商务网统计<span lang="EN-US">1-8</span>月份超高功率石墨电极产量和去年同期相比下降近<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><font face="宋体">鉴于目前石墨电极库存的高企，下游需求缩减，石墨电极市场供大于求，石墨电极销售压力不断增大，价格战成为企业间的赢得市场份额的有力手段，招标现场低端价格频现。据悉近期钢厂年度标<span lang="EN-US">UHP<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="False" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">600mm</st1:chmetcnv> </span>低端<span lang="EN-US">26000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，目前主流市场成交价格在<span lang="EN-US">28000-29000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。截止目前为止，石墨电极市场主流价格<span lang="EN-US">RP </span>直径<span lang="EN-US">300<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-600mm</st1:chmetcnv> </span>出厂含税价<span lang="EN-US">10500-12000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨、直径<span lang="EN-US">700<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="1200" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-1200mm</st1:chmetcnv></span>出厂含税价<span lang="EN-US">12500-18000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，<span lang="EN-US">HP </span>直径<span lang="EN-US">300<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-600mm</st1:chmetcnv></span>出厂含税价<span lang="EN-US">13500-16000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨 ，<span lang="EN-US">UHP</span>直径<span lang="EN-US">300<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-600mm</st1:chmetcnv></span>出厂含税价<span lang="EN-US">20000-29000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。据中华商务网统计，<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份石墨电极价格下降幅度与去年同期相比，<span lang="EN-US">RP </span>直径<span lang="EN-US">300<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-600mm</st1:chmetcnv> </span>同比下降<span lang="EN-US">10-12%</span>，<span lang="EN-US">HP </span>直径<span lang="EN-US">300<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-600mm</st1:chmetcnv></span>同比下降<span lang="EN-US">18-20% </span>，<span lang="EN-US">UHP </span>直径<span lang="EN-US">300<st1:chmetcnv unitname="mm" sourcevalue="600" hasspace="False" negative="True" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" w:st="on">-600mm</st1:chmetcnv></span>主流价格保持不变，但低端价格同比下降<span lang="EN-US">10-12%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><font face="宋体">面对下游需求不断萎缩，石墨电极生产企业产量也较去年同期有所缩减，但受石墨电极生产周期长因素的影响，目前石墨电极生产企业产成品数量减幅不明显。据中华商务网不完全统计，<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1-8</span>月中国石墨电极产量较去年同期下降<span lang="EN-US">8.6%</span>，其中超高功率石墨电极产量较去年同期下降<span lang="EN-US">9.28%</span>，高功率石墨电极产量较去年同期下降<span lang="EN-US">5.4%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><font face="宋体">出口方面，<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月中国石墨电极出口量<span lang="EN-US">18979</span>吨，环比下降率<span lang="EN-US">5.68%</span>；<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1-7</span>月累计出口<span lang="EN-US">137874</span>吨，与去年同期相比下滑<span lang="EN-US">14215</span>吨，同比下降率<span lang="EN-US">9.35%</span>。受全球经济下滑和美国、巴西、墨西哥等地区反倾销的影响，目前中国石墨电极出口的特点，一是单批次出口数量小，二是出口国家数量增多。据企业介绍目前大单子很少，都分散为众多小单子做，这样一是风险小，二是能否不断扩展市场。<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月中国石墨电极出口国家达到<span lang="EN-US">58</span>个。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Default" style="text-indent: 25.2pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.4"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体"><font face="宋体">后市预测分析，国庆节过后云南地区即将进入平水期，鉴于今年黄磷、金属硅下游需求乏力，四季度黄磷、金属硅开工率继续下降，对石墨电极的需求将会进一步缩减，石墨电极生产企业的销售压力将会越来越大，中小型石墨电极企业正在进行去库存，河南、山东、山西、河北地区石墨电极生产集中地多数企业都在减产、停产去库存，企业资金周转的压力越来越大。超高功率石墨电极受原料针状焦成本压力的影响，企业利润将越来越薄弱，就目前市场需求情况而言，四季度价格上调将是奢望。企业有效缩减产量仍是解决目前石墨电极市场供大于求的关键。四季度市场利空因素作用下，石墨电极市场不乐观形势加剧。</font></span></p>
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<p>（关键字：石墨电极 石墨电极市场分析&nbsp;&nbsp; 石墨电极库存）</p>
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