<h1>今年春节期间库存被动上涨明显 短期钢铁市场或反弹无望</h1>
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<span>2014-2-10 9:51:54</span>来源：<span>钢联资讯</span>作者：<span></span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>历年春节期间，钢材社会库存环比均会出现较大幅度攀升，而今年在贸易商冬储意愿不强，蓄水池作用弱化，资金相对紧张的情况下，钢材库存在节前第2、3周出现近7年最大环比增幅之后，近两周仍然出现两位数的增长，特别是矿石港口库存创近年来的新高，港口焦煤库存也增幅明显。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>钢铁 库存 上涨</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p>历年春节期间，钢材社会<b>库存</b>环比均会出现较大幅度攀升，而今年在贸易商冬储意愿不强，蓄水池作用弱化，资金相对紧张的情况下，钢材库存在节前第2、3周出现近7年最大环比增幅之后，近两周仍然出现两位数的增长，特别是矿石港口库存创近年来的新高，港口焦煤库存也增幅明显，在市场需求不振的背景下，显然，<b>钢铁</b>市场短期压力犹存。</p>
<p><strong>今年贸易商冬储意愿不强 春节期间库存被动<b>上涨</b>明显</strong></p>
<p>据我的钢铁网同口径调查统计，截止2014年2月7日全国主要城市钢材库存量达1630.95万吨，较2014年1月24日增长14.05%。也就是说，春节7天假期及节前一周，全国钢材社会库存量两周内增长了14.05%，是2008年以来春节期间环比涨幅最小的一年。2013年春节期间，钢材社会库存量两周内上涨了16.73%，环比涨幅最高的一年在2009年，达到26.48%。</p>
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<td valign="middle" width="576" colspan="8" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 432.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">历年春节前后钢材社会库存环比增幅</td>
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<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">时间</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节前四周</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节前三周</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节前两周</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节前一周+春节期间（共两周）</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节后一周</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节后两周</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">节后三周</td>
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<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2008年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">4.14%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">5.09%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">6.40%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">18.95%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">10.09%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">0.42%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">-3%</td>
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<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2009年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">3.19%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">4.25%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">3.82%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">26.48%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">14.48%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">10.19%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">6.15%</td>
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<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2010年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.74%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.48%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">4.24%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">17.83%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">8.03%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.69%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">-1.32%</td>
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<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2011年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.08%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">1.78%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">4.82%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">15.94%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">6.30%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.12%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">1.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2012年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">1.02%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">3.43%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">3.07%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">15.18%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">9.66%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">6.44%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2013年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.24%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">3.28%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">4.64%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">16.73%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">13.50%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">6.44%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2014年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2.13%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">4.47%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">6.37%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="96" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 72.15pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">14.05%</td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)"> </td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.45pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)"> </td>
<td valign="middle" width="68" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 51.55pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</p>
<div align="left">
<p> （来源：钢联云终端、钢联资讯整理）</p>
<p>根据历史数据显示，通常春节前几周钢材社会库存量将逐步攀升，并在春节期间涨幅明显上升，一方面是节前成交清淡，另一方面贸易商有冬储习惯。不过，迫于钢价低迷及资金紧张，贸易商今年冬储意愿较低，普遍加快出货回笼资金。令市场忧虑的是，今年春节期间，钢材社会库存量依然维持较快增长，显示终端需求疲软，加大了贸易商节后去库存的压力。2014年1月份中国制造业PMI回落至50.5%，季节性因素影响下工业经济增长继续放缓。</p>
<p>春节过后，随着终端需求加大采购力度，钢材社会库存量攀升势头将逐周减弱，一个月左右之后库存开始下降。今年春节后，钢材社会库存预计还将增长15%-20%，阶段性高位或达到1870万吨-1950万吨。</p>
<p><strong>资金紧原料弱库存高 钢市短期无利好</strong></p>
<p>2013年起，我的钢铁网对五大品种（热轧板卷、螺纹钢、线材、中厚板）库存新增了城市样本。据此统计，截止2014年2月7日全国主要城市钢材库存量达1788.76万吨，较1月24日增长14.69%，同比（2013年2月8日）增长10.7%。相应的，今年春节后钢材社会库存阶段性高位预计达到2050万吨-2150万吨。</p>
与此同时，重点钢企库存量依然居高不下，截止2014年1月中旬末达到1304.38万吨，同比大幅增长21.7%，考虑到贸易商库存不低，进货不积极，钢企在即将到来的新一轮调价中极为被动。</div>
<div align="left"> </div>
<p>此外，据我的钢铁网统计，截止2014年2月7日全国41个主要港口铁矿石库存总量为10286万吨，环比增474万吨，连续第七周上涨，自2012年2月后再度突破1亿吨。由于钢企去库存压力较大，对原材料采购也较为谨慎，节后首日煤、焦、钢等期货价格均出现较大跌幅。</p>
<p><strong>2008年至2013年春节后钢价走势</strong>
<table align="center" style="padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-collapse: collapse; padding-top: 0pt; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)"> </td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">春节后一个月钢价走势</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">3月份钢价走势</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2008年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">上涨</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">上涨</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2009年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">下跌</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">盘整偏弱</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2010年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">盘整偏强</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">上涨</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2011年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">先扬后抑，震荡运行</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">下跌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2012年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">先抑后扬，震荡运行</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">上涨</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle" width="72" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 54pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">2013年</td>
<td valign="middle" width="172" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 129pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">先扬后抑，震荡运行</td>
<td valign="middle" width="150" style="border-bottom: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0pt; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 112.5pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: medium none; border-right: rgb(0,0,0) 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 0pt; mso-border-left-alt: none; mso-border-right-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-top-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0); mso-border-bottom-alt: 0.5000pt solid rgb(0,0,0)">下跌</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</p>
<p> </p>
<p>根据上表，春节后一个月钢价走势往往决定着3月份钢价运行。6年来，春节后钢价多为震荡运行。节后钢价出现明显下跌的是在2009年，主要是钢材社会库存压力过大，供需失衡引起。2013年春节前在钢价、矿价持续攀升的刺激下，贸易商大量囤货，但随着国内经济增速回落，终端需求没有跟进，贸易商进入漫长的去库存阶段，钢价被迫回落。</p>
<p>今年春节期间钢材社会库存增幅虽低于去年同期，不过考虑到钢厂库存以及样本以外的库存，增量可能不比去年低，钢价依然承受着不小的压力，短期内仍有下探空间。由于今年贸易商对节后市场预期谨慎，钢价、矿价没有虚高的成分，预计节后钢价波动幅度不会像去年那么激烈，反弹的时间点可能延后至3月份。</p>
<p>总体来看，由于去年年中开始的“微刺激”举措效应减退，且政策面更注重改革和调结构，预计今年第一季度宏观经济将延续偏弱格局。且随着节前公开市场投放的资金到期，节后流动性大概率趋紧，近期某大型钢贸商资产被封，显示钢铁行业融资困难。在中间商拿货意愿较低的情况下，钢材库存同环比均呈双位数增长，预计节后贸易商继续采取快进快出的操作方式。钢企难以将库存压力转到贸易商，对铁矿石、焦炭等原材料价格也将进行打压，短期内钢铁市场没有重大利好消息来推动钢价反弹，预计在旺季到来之前，呈现弱势盘整态势。</p>
<p>(关键字：钢铁 库存 上涨)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：00491）</div>