<h1>本周炭素行业上下游市场行情回顾（2014.12.22-26）</h1>
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	<span>2014-12-29 15:13:33</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>杨雪</span>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
			<li>本周国内石油焦市场报价再次上涨，主营中石化、中海油部分炼厂上调10-30元/吨，山东地炼石油焦市场也普遍上调。本周，国内煤沥青市场继续偏弱运行，主产区（包括河北、山西、山东地区）中温沥青主流商谈价格1600-2000元/吨，改质沥青商谈价1900-2200元/吨。</li>
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		<ul>
			<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
			<li>炭素  石油焦  煤沥青  钢铁  电解铝  金属硅  黄磷  硅铁  电石</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 44.15pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt">上游动态：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>石油焦</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周国内石油焦市场报价再次上涨，主营中石化、中海油部分炼厂上调<span lang="EN-US">10-30</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，山东地炼石油焦市场也普遍上调。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中石化方面：本周三中石化石油焦报价再次小幅上调<span lang="EN-US">10-30</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，沿江地区九江、安庆、武汉、荆门、长岭石油焦报价均上调<span lang="EN-US">20</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，荆门石化<span lang="EN-US">3</span>套共<span lang="EN-US">120</span>万吨的焦化装置仍在检修中，沿江地区中硫石油焦出货较好，库存低位；山东地区济南炼化、青岛石化、胜利油田、青岛大炼油上调<span lang="EN-US">20-30</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；华北地区燕山石化、沧州炼厂、石家庄炼厂上调<span lang="EN-US">20</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；洛阳石化也上调<span lang="EN-US">10</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；华南地区石油焦报价平稳，出货为主。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中石油方面：本周东北地区低硫焦挂牌价保持平稳，成交情况不佳，仍实行成交优惠政策。西北地区石油焦价格持稳，但炼厂受下游铝业行情低迷影响销售情况不佳，库存中高位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中海油方面：本周舟山石化<span lang="EN-US">2#B</span>上调<span lang="EN-US">30</span>元至<span lang="EN-US">1350</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，惠州炼厂<st1:chsdate year="2014" month="12" day="15" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">15</span>日</st1:chsdate>开始恢复生产<span lang="EN-US">1#B</span>，库存低位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">地炼方面：本周地炼石油焦市场行情继续保持上扬局面，其中利津、华联、鑫泰、滨阳燃化、昌邑、正和、蓝星、华星、晨曦、永鑫、华龙、亚通、齐润、鲁清报价再次上调<span lang="EN-US">20-10</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨不等，垦利与京博指标调整价格随着变动。受焦化装置开率降低，以及主营集团连续拉涨影响，地炼厂家出货普遍较好，库存低位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">随着国际原油价格深度下跌，国内炼厂开工负荷不高，石油焦产量继续收紧，预计下周国内石油焦市场将延续稳中有涨局面。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>煤沥青</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周，国内<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">煤沥青</span>市场<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">继续偏弱运行</span>，主产区（包括河北、山西、山东地区）中温沥青主流商谈价格<span lang="EN-US">1600-2000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质沥青商谈价<span lang="EN-US">1900-2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。年底，下游碳素及<b>电解铝</b>企业资金面偏空，部分企业装置关停，对煤沥青有所压制，加上焦油市场不断释放利空，焦油加工企业稳价不易，不得不降价出货，后期煤沥青价格仍走低运行。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">以下是各区域市场行情动态：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">山西地区煤沥青市场总体调整不大，企业仍维持原报价，商谈重心较前期持平，地区内中温商谈价格<span lang="EN-US">1800-2000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质执行在<span lang="EN-US">1950-2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">河北地区煤沥青市场弱势运行，部分企业已签订新单，商谈重心走低<span lang="EN-US">100</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，地区内中温参考价在<span lang="EN-US">1900-2000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨的水平，个别偏低，改质煤沥青执行<span lang="EN-US">2000-2050</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">河南地区煤沥青市场偏弱运行，当地部分碳素企业装置关停，对煤沥青有所打压，后期价格回落为主，地区内中温参考价<span lang="EN-US">1650-2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质执行在<span lang="EN-US">2150-2250</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">华东地区煤沥青市场商谈偏软，价格略有走低，地区内持货商虽出货良好，但价格不断向下运行，地区内中温参考价在<span lang="EN-US">1650-2000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨的水平，改质煤沥青执行<span lang="EN-US">2000-2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt">下游行情：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>钢铁</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">近期国内钢坯价格呈加速下滑态势，<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">1-23</span>日，钢坯价格指数累计下滑<span lang="EN-US">5.7%</span>，唐山钢坯价格更是跌至近<span lang="EN-US">11</span>年新低，<span lang="EN-US">23</span>日报<span lang="EN-US">2130</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。分析认为，这主要是受年底资金链紧张影响，目前厂家为防止资金链断裂，均不惜低价出货。唐山作为中国最大的钢坯产地，其价格往往被当做中国钢铁价格走势的风向标。<span lang="EN-US">23</span>日下午，唐山普方坯再降<span lang="EN-US">20</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，部分外地资源现金含税出厂执行<span lang="EN-US">2130</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt">电解铝：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">电解铝</span>整体价格继续走势，徘徊在<span lang="EN-US">13000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨关口，持货商暂无抛货迹象，下游月底资金紧张接货有限，市场整体成交清淡。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">伦铝</span>价格震荡在<span lang="EN-US">1861-1911</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，整体下行，在<span lang="EN-US">24</span>日圣诞节前美国集中发布八项经济数据，数据虽好坏参半，但强劲的美国三季度<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>表现抢眼，美元美股纷纷收高，原油市场也在预期需求增加的情况下上涨，圣诞节前市场情绪谨慎基本金属走势分化，伦铝延续弱势，开盘<span lang="EN-US">1880</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨亚洲时段高至<span lang="EN-US">1889.8</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨后，伦铝再探新低，目前下方缺口扩大，<span lang="EN-US">1850</span>美元一线支撑有待考验。预计短期内伦铝依然延续弱势震荡的格局。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path><o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"></o:lock></v:shapetype><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">沪铝</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周震荡在<span lang="EN-US">13120-13295</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，沪铝受外盘影响较大，有反弹之意但是外盘目前大势依然向下，料也将抑制沪铝的整体走势，预计其弱势格局仍难扭转，因圣诞节伦铝休市，沪铝<span lang="EN-US">25</span>日再次逼近万三整数关卡支撑，近期消息面清淡，预计短期内沪铝维持弱势震荡格局，中长期低位盘整走势未变。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周华东地区现货市场铝锭价格震荡在<span lang="EN-US">13000-13080</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，电解铝价格围绕在<span lang="EN-US">13000</span>元关口，铝厂亏损不断升级，电解铝市场难反弹，持货商出货偏少，虽然价格下行但是铝厂并未有恐慌低价抛售的迹象，贸易商方面择机低价采购。下游采购方多以寻价为主，实际采购并不多，都是按需采购。而且从目前的走势来看，外盘还尚无止跌迹象<span lang="EN-US">;</span>相应的，国内铝价料也难以明显止跌，更是无法期待其能做出大幅反弹。因此对下游企业来说，眼下仍不到抄底的时候<span lang="EN-US">;</span>虽然我们认为铝价毕竟跌幅已经不小，但后市最多也就是转为缓慢下跌态势<span lang="EN-US">;</span>除非有重大利好消息出台，不然基本没有大幅反弹的希望。而就整体市况来看，房地产消费依然疲弱，铝市的下游需求很难获得根本性改善<span lang="EN-US">;</span>加之新建产能还在不停上马，这就导致国内铝市供大于求的状况越发加剧<span lang="EN-US">;</span>所以虽然铝价目前已是处于较低位置，但在熊市中没有最低、只有更低。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>金属硅</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">需求放缓，亚洲<span lang="EN-US">553#</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">金属硅</span>现货价格进一步下跌。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国现货出口<span lang="EN-US">FOB</span>价格由一周前的<span lang="EN-US">2010-2030</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨下跌至<st1:chsdate year="2014" month="12" day="18" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">18</span>日</st1:chsdate>的<span lang="EN-US">1980-2020</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">日本进口现货<span lang="EN-US">CIF</span>价格也由一周前的<span lang="EN-US">2020-2040</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨下跌至<st1:chsdate year="2014" month="12" day="18" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">18</span>日</st1:chsdate>的<span lang="EN-US">2000-2020</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一位福建生产商上周销售了<span lang="EN-US">100</span>吨金属硅，<span lang="EN-US">FOB</span>价格在<span lang="EN-US">2010-2020</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨（<span lang="EN-US">CIF</span>鹿特丹价格为<span lang="EN-US">2060-2070</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨）一月中旬从黄埔港装载；而另一位以<span lang="EN-US">FOB2010</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨（<span lang="EN-US">CIF2020</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨）价格出售了<span lang="EN-US">240</span>吨，<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月底装载。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一位香港贸易商<span lang="EN-US">FOB</span>报价在<span lang="EN-US">1980</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨出售了<span lang="EN-US">100</span>吨金属硅给欧洲东部买家，一月初从黄埔港装载。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">大多数中国卖家表示，国内和出口需求持续走低，尽管四川和云南地区减产，但市场供应量充足。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">预计出口需求在接下来得两个星期将下降，受圣诞节和新年假期影响。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国西南产区工厂表示，将关闭一个月交易，除了在国内市场销售，他们的货将囤积到明年预计价格更高的时候再卖。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国<span lang="EN-US">553#</span>金属硅黄埔港交易价格由一周前的<span lang="EN-US">12100-12300</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨下滑至<st1:chsdate year="2014" month="12" day="18" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">18</span>日</st1:chsdate>的<span lang="EN-US">12000-12200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 20.65pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; mso-char-indent-count: 1.96"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>黄磷</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周（<span lang="EN-US">12.19-12.26</span>）<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">黄磷</span>市场基本走稳，由于下游市场略显抵触，黄磷价格上行受阻。据不完全统计，本周西南地区黄磷开工率稳定在<span lang="EN-US">26.9%</span>左右，但下周进入<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份，黄磷价格若没有明显改观，部分企业有降低负荷的计划，所以后期开工有望小幅走低。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内黄磷市场<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">评述</span>：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">云南省：净磷出厂主流成交现汇价<span lang="EN-US">14400-14500</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，承兑价<span lang="EN-US">14700-14800</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。由于场内本身开工低位，库存少量，而部分开工企业主供前期订单，所以整体供应量偏低，但目前下游市场对于黄磷价格上行较为抵触，所以本周整体走稳为主。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">四川省：净磷出厂主流现汇价格：马边地区出厂现汇价<span lang="EN-US">14000-14300</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；石棉地区出厂价<span lang="EN-US">14300-14400</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；什邡到站价主流<span lang="EN-US">14700-14800</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；攀枝花地区出厂现汇价<span lang="EN-US">14400</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。由于下游市场开工不佳，对于黄磷采购力度较弱，部分企业谨慎观望，限制出货。目前来看，四川场内黄磷开工率仍维持高位，后期进<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份，部分企业有调整开工的打算。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">贵州省：净磷出厂主流成交承兑价<span lang="EN-US">14700-14800</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，高端成交<span lang="EN-US">15000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，据目前了解，贵州部分企业订单维持到<span lang="EN-US">15</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月初，所以场内现货货源有限。另外，贵州大部分矿山均处于停产状态，开阳地区部分黄磷企业表示黄磷矿短缺，由于库存不多，生产受限，所以<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月初有停车打算。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">湖北省：净磷出厂成交维持承兑<span lang="EN-US">16000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，目前湖北地区仅有个别拥有资源优势的企业维持开工，所以场内多属其他省份货源。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">后市预测：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">从目前的市场来看，黄磷后市令人堪忧。从丰水期进入枯水期，企业成本上行<span lang="EN-US">2000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，但黄磷的价格却仅有<span lang="EN-US">400-600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右的上行幅度，可以窥见，目前生产企业背负较大的生产成本压力。从下游市场来看，磷酸销售压力较大，虽然成本有<span lang="EN-US">150</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右的上行，但短时间下游市场表现弱势疲软，成本上行部分难以转移至终端市场，目前下游磷酸、草甘膦价格触底，对于黄磷价格接受度有限，所以对于黄磷价格上行形成较大的阻力。综上所述，黄磷市场虽然供应偏于低位，但后市价格仍将很大程度受到下游市场的牵制，预计下周黄磷市场将一窄幅调整为主，一方面观望市场动态，一方面与下游市场博弈。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>硅铁</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">据国家统计局最新数据显示：<span lang="EN-US">2014</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月国内<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">硅铁</span>产量为<span lang="EN-US">41.44</span>万吨（折合含硅<span lang="EN-US">75%</span>），环比<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月下降<span lang="EN-US">13.18%</span>，同比<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月下降<span lang="EN-US">13.78%</span>；<span lang="EN-US">1-11</span>月累计产量为<span lang="EN-US">473.34</span>万吨，同比<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年下降<span lang="EN-US">2.6%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">其中硅铁主产地：青海<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月产量<span lang="EN-US">9.42</span>万吨，<span lang="EN-US">1-11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">107.43</span>万吨；宁夏<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">硅铁产量</span><span lang="EN-US">11.4</span>万吨，<span lang="EN-US">1-11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">104.37</span>万吨；内蒙古<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月产量<span lang="EN-US">7.74</span>万吨，<span lang="EN-US">1-11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">86</span>万吨；甘肃<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月产量<span lang="EN-US">3.85</span>万吨，<span lang="EN-US">1-11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">47.8</span>万吨；陕西<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月产量<span lang="EN-US">2.97</span>万吨，<span lang="EN-US">1-11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">27.96</span>万吨。由于硅铁价格的持续走低，企业被迫限产求存，导致硅铁市场现货供应量减少，并且截止<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月减产规模仍在不断扩大当中。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 17.65pt; text-indent: 16.3pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21.1pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>电石</b>：</span></b><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">近期，国内电石市场交投气氛黯淡，厂家方面虽有意坚挺价格，但下游氯碱企业到货充裕，压车卸货的现象频现，且其自身产品行情疲软，对电石采购价格的压力增大，市场中不时有低端成交的现象发生。由于价格长期疲软，部分西北电石企业开工意愿不强，但仍有部分产能较大的装置保持高负荷运行，且氯碱企业自身配套电石炉开工良好，供需失衡的矛盾局面未见缓解。受乙烯法<span lang="EN-US">PVC</span>价格快速走跌的影响，国内电石法<span lang="EN-US">PVC</span>行情难有好转，短期内，电石市场难寻下游的利好支撑。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 19pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">近期，宁夏地区电石走势一般，交投气氛不佳。现当地一级品电石主流出厂价格在<span lang="EN-US">2500-2600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，更低价位亦有听闻。据了解，当地重点<span lang="EN-US">PVC</span>企业开工和负荷较高，对电石的需求量大，支撑市场成交重心在前期下调后逐步稳定，但考虑到外销出货受阻，当地新建电石装置的投产，预计短期该地区电石难有好转。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 19pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">新疆地区电石交投气氛稳定，主流成交价格未见明显变化。现阶段，疆内一级品电石主流出厂价格在<span lang="EN-US">2700-2800</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，低端出厂价格在<span lang="EN-US">2650</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，根据运距不同，成交价格略有差异。据了解，疆内氯碱装置开工平稳，供需关系未见变化，近期国内<span lang="EN-US">PVC</span>行情的疲软使电石价格面临较大的压力，预计，新疆地区电石市场后期走势难有较大突破。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 19pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">陕西地区电石市场走势平稳，交投气氛一般。据悉，当地一级品电石主流出厂价格在<span lang="EN-US">2450-2500</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，实际成交可商谈。据了解，当地重点<span lang="EN-US">PVC</span>企业开工和负荷较高，对电石的需求量大，支撑市场成交重心在前期下调后逐步稳定，但考虑到外销出货受阻，当地新建电石装置的投产，预计短期该地区电石难有好转。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 19pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">河北地区电石市场交投气氛黯淡，到货充足，主流成交价格出现<span lang="EN-US">50</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右的下调。现阶段，当地氯碱企业采购一级品电石的主流到厂价格在<span lang="EN-US">2800-2900</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，部分低端价格在<span lang="EN-US">2680</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右。据了解，当地到货仍显过量，下游氯碱企业对电石采购价格的压力增大，市场氛围难有好转，成交重心小幅走低。预计，随着价格的连续下调，当地电石行情多将止跌企稳。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 19pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">甘肃地区电石走势大体平稳，交投气氛一般。现当地一级品电石主流出厂价格在<span lang="EN-US">2650-2750</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，部分企业报价更高，实际成交价位多以随行就市为主。据了解，该地区受天气影响，电石外销不畅，部分下游行业受此牵连，到货紧缺，加之当地电石开工负荷偏低，该地区预计会将震荡小幅上行。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p>(关键字：炭素  石油焦  煤沥青  钢铁  电解铝  金属硅  黄磷  硅铁  电石)</p></div>
	<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：00491）</div>