<h1>本周炭素行业上下游市场行情回顾（2016.4.5-8）</h1>
<div class="v2_comtent_info01">
<span>2016-4-11 14:22:11</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>杨雪</span>
</div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info02"><a title="投稿" class="v2_content_ico01">投稿</a><a title="打印" class="v2_content_ico02">打印</a><a title="收藏" class="v2_content_ico03">收藏</a>
<!-- Baidu Button BEGIN -->
<div class="bdsharebuttonbox">
<a class="bds_more" data-cmd="more">分享到：</a>
<a title="分享到QQ空间" class="bds_qzone" href="#" data-cmd="qzone"></a>
<a title="分享到新浪微博" class="bds_tsina" href="#" data-cmd="tsina"></a>
<a title="分享到腾讯微博" class="bds_tqq" href="#" data-cmd="tqq"></a>
<a title="分享到微信" class="bds_weixin" href="#" data-cmd="weixin"></a>
<a title="分享到人人网" class="bds_renren" href="#" data-cmd="renren"></a></div>
</div>
<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>
<!-- Baidu Button END -->
<div class="v2_comtent_info03">
<ul>
<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>本周国内石油焦市场平稳为主，主营集团部分炼厂石油焦价格小幅调整，山东地炼焦市稳中小涨。本周，河北地区煤沥青市场走势回落，部分深加工企业轮番检修，但终端刚需不足，实单签订情况仍显一般。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>炭素 石油焦 煤沥青 钢铁 金属硅 黄磷 电石 电解铝 硅铁</li>
</ul>
<div class="clear_hu"></div>
</div>
<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 44.15pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt">上游动态：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>石油焦</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周国内石油焦市场平稳为主，主营集团部分炼厂石油焦价格小幅调整，山东地炼焦市稳中小涨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中石化石油焦价格整体平稳，个别炼厂小幅下调。其中华北地区天津石化出货一般，库存中位；石家庄炼厂指标稳定，出货良好；燕山石化石油焦自用为主，计划<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月初至<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月中旬全厂停工检修；沧州炼化日产量<span lang="EN-US">400</span>吨，下游碳素客户接货平稳。沿江地区武汉石化预计<st1:chsdate year="2016" month="4" day="9" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">9</span>日</st1:chsdate>全厂停工计划检修，石油焦库存低位；九江石化<span lang="EN-US">3#B</span>石油焦下调<span lang="EN-US">80</span>元至<span lang="EN-US">1020</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；安庆石化<span lang="EN-US">3#A</span>石油焦下调<span lang="EN-US">100</span>元至<span lang="EN-US">1250</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；荆门石化受武汉炼厂检修影响，出货较好；长岭石化石油焦硫<span lang="EN-US">1.95%</span>，出货尚可。华东地区金山石化日外销量约<span lang="EN-US">1200</span>吨，石油焦硫含量<span lang="EN-US">4.6%</span>；高桥石化硫含量最新检测结果<span lang="EN-US">4.3%</span>，出货一般；金陵石化出货尚可，库存低位；扬子石化价格出货良好，库存低位，价格小幅推涨；镇海炼厂计划<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月月<span lang="EN-US">24</span>日焦化装置停工检修。山东地区齐鲁石化出货尚可，库存低位；胜利石化焦化装置<st1:chsdate year="2016" month="3" day="31" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日起</st1:chsdate>停工检修，库存低位；青岛石化出货一般，库存中位；青岛大炼油价格出货良好，库存低位；齐鲁石化出货一般，库存中位；济南石化日产量<span lang="EN-US">500</span>吨左右，出货尚可。华南地区广州石化高硫焦出货平稳，库存无压；广西北海炼厂出口为主，库存低位；茂名石化<span lang="EN-US"> 1#</span>焦化装置<st1:chsdate year="2016" month="3" day="16" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">16</span>日</st1:chsdate>至<st1:chsdate year="2016" month="4" day="27" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">27</span>日</st1:chsdate>停工检修，库存低位。西北地区塔河石化高硫焦出货尚可，库存中位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中石油东北低硫焦行情延续平稳，大庆、抚顺报价无变动，库存中位；吉林、辽阳石化中硫焦出货尚可，库存中低位。西北地区玉门石化<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份石油焦价格下调<span lang="EN-US">50</span>元至<span lang="EN-US">1380</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨；新疆乌鲁木齐石化价格下调至<span lang="EN-US">1290</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，出货好转；克拉玛依、独山子石化石化出货良好，库存无压。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中海油惠州炼厂出货一般，成交优惠；舟山石化出货尚可，炼厂反映库存低位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周山东地炼石油焦市场行情延续稳中小涨。其中低硫焦出货不佳，价格小幅下调；中硫焦出货情况较好，价格小幅推涨；高硫焦方面，由于价格较低，硫含量<span lang="EN-US">5.5%</span>左右成交价格在<span lang="EN-US">550</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右。富海集团联合石化预计<st1:chsdate year="2016" month="4" day="12" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" w:st="on"><span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">12</span>日</st1:chsdate>全厂陆续停工检修；东营亚通石化全厂检修延后至<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月中下旬；正和石化、昌邑石化预计<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月份全厂停工检修。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周长江现货铝价震荡上扬，且正处传统炼厂检修季，预计下周焦市行情稳中小涨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>煤沥青</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周，河北地区<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">煤沥青</span>市场<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">走势回落</span>，部分深加工企业轮番检修，但终端刚需不足，实单签订情况仍显一般。目前中温参考价在<span lang="EN-US">1300-1350</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质煤沥青执行<span lang="EN-US">1530-1600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，高位多属于报盘，新单价格趋于低位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">以下是各区域市场行情动态：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">东北地区煤沥青市场观望整理，老客户间合作稳定，但受下游企业还盘制约，高位窄幅回落。目前中温参考价<span lang="EN-US">1600-1650</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质执行在<span lang="EN-US">1650-1700</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，商投气氛不旺，行情走势趋淡。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">山西地区煤沥青市场运行一般，高位出货不畅，市场交投气氛清淡。目前中温参考价在<span lang="EN-US">1350-1400</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质煤沥青执行<span lang="EN-US">1500-1550</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，厂家报盘高位，实际成交价格趋于偏低水平。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">河北地区煤沥青市场走势回落，部分深加工企业轮番检修，但终端刚需不足，实单签订情况仍显一般。目前中温参考价在<span lang="EN-US">1300-1350</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，改质煤沥青执行<span lang="EN-US">1530-1600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，高位多属于报盘，新单价格趋于低位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt">下游行情：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>钢铁</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周结束，四月份将进入中旬，清明小长假过后国内<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">钢价</span>涨势如虹，现货市场报价连连上涨，虽然本周之内期<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">钢市</span>场曾有涨跌互现的行情，但从现货市场看基本趋于稳拉涨之势。热卷、中厚板、冷板和线螺等主要产品的市场报价已提升到一个新的高度。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">以上热卷均价与去年末的最低价价相比，至少提升了<span lang="EN-US">40%</span>以上，螺纹钢至少提起升了<span lang="EN-US">32%</span>以上。多数<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">钢厂</span>由亏转盈，而且三四月份钢厂的出厂价大部分高于市场报价。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周钢市的主要特点：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一、在三月份大幅拉涨的基础上，四月份预期较好，市场信心充足，进入四月份以来持续拉涨的的势头从为减弱，商家心理压力减轻，放手提价成为主要策略。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">二、从价格变化的区域看，热卷和线螺等主要产品报价的涨幅北方高于南方，尤其是华北地区拉涨幅度较强，华北地区尤以京津 地区为甚，至本周末，北京地区的线螺报价领先国内最高价，高线报价接近<span lang="EN-US">2600</span>元。再看热卷，本周以来天津市场热卷涨幅最大，至本周末天津地区<span lang="EN-US">4.5</span>以上热卷报价超过<span lang="EN-US">2630</span>元，高于上海及乐从市场，这是很少有的行情。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">三、支撑钢价大幅拉涨的最有利的因素应该是市场资源增长缓慢，而且远远低于预期，在三月份以来钢价快速上涨的前题下钢厂增产或复产的速度没有预期快。市场上资源少，商家手中资源不多，出货压力不大，提价的底气较为充足。华北地区价格拉涨高于其它区域 ，原因也是多方面的，比较重要的原因是唐山地区即将召世园会有关，当地很多钢厂被限产，钢坯库存很少，因此本周钢坯 得以大幅反弹，报价超过<span lang="EN-US">2030</span>元以上。另外京津冀一体化的战略得以一步落实，相当多的工程项目动工，有力地助长了下游 需求， 北京线螺，天津卷板的大幅提升就是最好的体现。北京线螺自三月份拉涨后市场成交以越来越好的态势发展。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">四、市场资源补足不到位及钢厂复产或增产缓慢其中原因可能很多，但资金紧张的局面没有得到宽松是其中较大的影响因素，从部分商家的反映看，商家在经营中资金短缺仍然是最大的问题，各类银行对钢铁产业链的资金控制仍然十分严格，一般实力不够强的商家很难从银行贷到款，没有钱也就不能大批量进货，从实际情况看，大部分商家在钢厂的订单增加并不多。从钢厂看，由于长期亏损导致大部分钢厂资金短缺，原材料采购不足，难以快速增产，另外国家对钢铁企业过剩产能的严格控制及环保的要求也使钢厂的增产能力受到较大阻力。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">五、本周钢价大幅拉涨也增加了市场风险，毕竟下游需求并不理想，钢价的大幅拉涨单边行为较为明显，港口铁矿存量已超过<span lang="EN-US">1</span>亿吨，宝钢沙钢等大企业增产计划已十分明确，宝钢的增产幅度将超过<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>，目前主要产品的吨钢利润已超过<span lang="EN-US">300</span>元，一季度大部分钢厂已有盈利，因此后期的增产速度有望快速回升，在钢价的剌激下市场资源增加也是必然的，如果需求仍得不到大量释放，钢价回落的风险还是存在的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>电解铝</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周截止至<span lang="EN-US">7</span>日，<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">伦铝</span>收盘价周均价至<span lang="EN-US">1524.3</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，较上周均价上涨<span lang="EN-US">9</span>美元。伦铝周内维持区间震荡，周内最高至<span lang="EN-US">1543</span>美元，最低至<span lang="EN-US">1495.5</span>美元一线。<span lang="EN-US">LME</span>铝周库存累计减少<span lang="EN-US">26525</span>吨至<span lang="EN-US">2756525</span>吨。本周，<b>沪铝</b>延续高位弱势振荡，运行区间为<span lang="EN-US">11520-11830</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，收盘周均价在<span lang="EN-US">11757.5</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，较上周上涨<span lang="EN-US">7.5</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，盘中表现远抗跌于伦铝。目前铝市期限结构转为近低远高的正向排列，沪铝<span lang="EN-US">1605</span>和<span lang="EN-US">1606</span>合约正价差为<span lang="EN-US">20</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，显示远期合约下跌意愿较弱。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周，现货铝锭报价<span lang="EN-US">11670-11900</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨之间，周均价在<span lang="EN-US">11775</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，较上周均价上涨<span lang="EN-US">33</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。铝锭周内升水略有缩窄，报平水至升水<span lang="EN-US">10</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨出货<span lang="EN-US">;</span>中间商逢低接货，现货依然相对坚挺。现货市场上氧化铝价格连续第二周下滑，市场消息人士称，截至<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月末，总计约<span lang="EN-US">280</span>万吨氧化铝产能已经重启。氧化铝复产逐步呈现，原料端价格开始回落，冶炼企业利润空间扩大，未来扩产及复产预期可能性加大。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">综上，沪铝趋势看涨不变，近期回调，关注<span lang="EN-US">12000</span>的整数压力。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>金属硅</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">金属硅</span>市场成交价格维稳上扬，在产工厂盼涨心态浓厚，报价再度上扬，然而并没有在刺激工厂复产的作用上体现优势，全国各地区停产工厂复产还是较少，在产工厂盼涨心态强，在此整体开工率低、走货畅通的情况下再度报高价，拉涨市场成交价格。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">开工情况：目前湖南地区<span lang="EN-US">59</span>台金属硅矿热炉正常开启<span lang="EN-US">6</span>台，开工率在<span lang="EN-US">10.17%</span>，环比上月增长<span lang="EN-US">10.17%</span>，预计月度金属硅总产量<span lang="EN-US">3530</span>吨，环比增产<span lang="EN-US">3530</span>吨。湖南地区电价在<span lang="EN-US">0.49-0.54</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>千瓦时，均较高，而电价调整迟迟不见通知，工厂多数观望市场，目前价格在小幅上扬，极个别工厂准备复产。贵州金属硅矿热炉总共<span lang="EN-US">53</span>台，正常开启<span lang="EN-US">3</span>台，开工率约为<span lang="EN-US">5.66%</span>，环比上月上涨<span lang="EN-US">2.02%</span>，预计月度金属硅总产量<span lang="EN-US">2350</span>吨左右，环比上月增产<span lang="EN-US">780</span>吨左右。贵州地区电价下调<span lang="EN-US">0.12</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>千瓦时，目前电价在<span lang="EN-US">0.44</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>千瓦时，工厂多数表示开工仍困难，对后市不看好，大部分计划下半年复产。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">后市预测分析，南方各地金属硅复产缓慢，开工持续低位，而下游采购还是有所减少，贸易商及下游工厂均不囤货，预计下周市场报价将持续上扬，而成交价格波动幅度不大。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>黄磷</b>：</span></b><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">本周（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">2016.4.2—2016.4.8</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">黄磷市场</span>整体行情<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">走弱</span>。云南地区开工上行，市场供应增多，而下游需求疲软，主流价格下行，四川地区受云南行情较弱形势影响，加之场内电价调整政策迟迟未出，厂家多观望，主流行情稍有走弱，价格仍在弱势调整中。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">国内主产区一周黄磷行情：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">云南：云南地区黄磷市场淡稳运行。当前场内主流现汇成交价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12300-12400</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，主流承兑出货价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12600-12700</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。云南地区受电价政策影响，企业陆续调整开工，近期内略有微调，但幅度不大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">贵州：贵州地区黄磷市场平稳运行。当前场内主流净磷出厂承兑价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12400-12500</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，主流成交价格在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12300-12500</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。短时黄磷市场盘整运行。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">湖北：黄磷市场交投清淡，当前主流成交承兑价至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">13800 </span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨左右，市场仍旧开工低位，需求清淡。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">四川：四川地区黄磷市场开工上行，当前主流价格：马边地区出厂承兑价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12600-12700 </span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨；石棉地区现汇价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12600 </span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，什邡主流到站价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">13000-13600 </span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨；攀枝花地区主流现汇价格</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12200 </span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，会东地区出厂现汇价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">12100-12200 </span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt">/</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; text-indent: 24pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">后市分析：黄磷市场开工稳定，下游多正常生产，按需采购，黄磷企业出货压力有所增加。电价政策的调整，导致黄磷企业观望情绪浓厚，预计近一段时间内黄磷市场仍以弱稳走势为主。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>硅铁</b>：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本周<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">硅铁</span>市场价格走势总体延续上周跌势，厂家报价多在<span lang="EN-US">72#</span>硅铁<span lang="EN-US">4300</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，实际成交价格根据采购量与付款方式不同而有所差别。自上周标杆性钢厂河北钢铁敲定<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月硅铁价格以来，本周陆陆续续有钢厂定价，北方绝大多数钢厂价格<span lang="EN-US">75B</span>硅铁定价为<span lang="EN-US">4700</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">而钢厂方面的情况，受到世园会影响，唐山地区将有绝大多数钢厂减产停产，这就表示，下游需求的直接减少，当然，也有人表示：钢厂的减产，或将刺激钢价上涨，钢价上涨刺激市场，硅铁价格不一定会下跌。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; text-indent: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">下周，钢厂招标陆续完成，市场基调敲定，<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月的钢招价格基本敲定在<span lang="EN-US">4700-5000</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨之间，北方多数定价在<span lang="EN-US">4700</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。一般而言，在月中，硅铁价格变化不大，因此，预计下周硅铁价格将弱稳运行。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 19.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; background: white"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21.1pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt"><b>电石</b>：</span></b><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">国内电石市场整体呈现稳中求涨趋势，局部地区价格水平上浮</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">50-80</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">/</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。据了解，受前期电石价格持续低位影响，部分企业迫于生产压力降负或停车。加之下游</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">PVC</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">装置开工负荷平稳，使得局部地区电石到货稳定性受到一定影响，过裕货源量明显减少。面对此局面，部分氯碱企业纷纷提价以争取更多货源，使得电石价格缓步上行。上周西北部分氯碱装置停车，配套电石的外销在一定程度上缓解了货源紧张的局面，但在整体市场积极推涨的环境下，交投重心仍有一定幅度的上调。区域价格方面，东北地区电石到货价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2230-2280</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">/</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨；西北地区电石到货价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2050-2150</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">/</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨；华北地区电石到货价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2200-2450</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">/</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨；华中地区电石到货价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2400-2550</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">/</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨；西南地区电石到货价格为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2450-2550</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">/</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>(关键字：炭素 石油焦 煤沥青 钢铁 金属硅 黄磷 电石 电解铝 硅铁)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：00491）</div>