<h1>又一个铝价多头 国泰君安：电解铝每吨2万不是梦</h1>
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<span>2017-8-16 10:25:28</span>来源：<span>国泰君安</span>作者：<span></span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>国泰君安(19.880, -0.07, -0.35%)（601211）分析师刘华峰等8月7日发表研报，认为对标国内煤炭、钢铁供给侧改革，及铜与碳酸锂供需改变拉动价格激涨实例，电解铝价格上涨到2万元/吨并非遥不可及（目前SHFE铝价约14800元/吨），而市场对其价格弹性仍预期不足。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>电解铝 铝价</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span id="stock_sh601211"><a class="keyword" href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh601211/nc.shtml" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17,62,170); text-decoration: none">国泰君安</a></span><span id="quote_sh601211">(<font color="#008000">19.880</font>,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><font color="#008000">-0.07</font>,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><font color="#008000">-0.35%</font>)</span>（601211）分析师刘华峰等8月7日发表研报，认为对标国内煤炭、钢铁供给侧改革，及铜与碳酸锂供需改变拉动价格激涨实例，<b>电解铝</b>价格上涨到2万元/吨并非遥不可及（目前SHFE<b>铝价</b>约14800元/吨），而市场对其价格弹性仍预期不足。 </p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 首先，产能去化无须纠结：前期山东、新疆等产能去化重点区域去产能进展较为顺利，且后续仍有较多催化剂值得期待，去化最终效果或超市场预期。</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 其次，供改一旦落地，供需平衡将被打破，预计2018全球电解铝将短缺约394万吨，供求紧缺将打开价格上行空间。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/jahd-fyixtym5683779.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 国泰君安认为，电解铝供给端收缩无须再质疑。首先是煤炭、钢铁行业供改推进的巨大成功已经铺好了路，其次从微观来看，重点区域山东、新疆等产能去化顺利推进：新疆昌吉州人民政府关闭在建违规产能200万吨、魏桥主动去化25 万吨产能、信发已关停近53 万吨产能等印证产能去化有条不紊执行。</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 据亚洲金属网统计截至2017年7月，供给侧改革已影响约448万吨电解铝产能。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/4xvO-fyixtym5683795.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
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<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 而9月15日全国去产能大限，全国有望进入非合规产能清理的窗口期，类比煤炭的276天生产管制和钢铁行业取缔地条钢，叠加冬季采暖季节2+26城市的30%产能停产4个月，电解铝将迎来供需逆转，预计2018短缺约394万吨，铝价有望驶入加速上涨通道，2万元/吨或将加速到来。</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 继前期产能去化顺利进行，该机构认为后续产能去化仍有较多看点：</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 第一，供改去产能进入专项抽查、督查整改阶段后，产能去化将更为彻底：目前供改已完成企业自查、地方核查阶段，正式进入专项抽查阶段、即将步入督促整改阶段，我们认为随着后续两阶段专项抽查、及督查整改阶段时间节点9月15日及10月15日的迫近，相关企业违规产能去化节奏将进一步加快，产能去化将更为坚决。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/-LKq-fyixiay8021395.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 第二，“2+26”环保限产实际影响量或远超市场预期。</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 2017年2月20日，环境保护部办公厅印发《京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案》明确指出：各地采暖季电解铝厂限产30%以上，以停产的电解槽数量计；氧化铝企业限产30%左右，以生产线计；炭素企业达不到特别排放限值的，全部停产，达到特备排放限值的，限产50%以上，以生产线计。实施范围包括北京市，天津市及周边26个城市。</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 据阿拉丁统计，截至2017年4月，“2+26”方案中涉及的企业电解槽总槽数为12389台，30%应停槽数量约为3721台，若不考虑不同电解槽型对应产能不同，则可大致估算需减产295.7万吨，折合到取暖季需减产98万吨，2017年当年影响量约为38万吨。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/II1m-fyixiay8021405.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 而考虑到电解槽重启成本较高、需要一定时间周期，且“2+26”方案中对氧化铝及碳素的限产将进一步制约相关地区电解铝产能释放，国泰君安认为若“2+26”方案能严格执行，那最后影响的电解铝产量大概率会超过估算的98万吨（且4月以后又有不少电解槽停产如魏桥及信发），将对供给造成更大影响或远超市场预期。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/6ogI-fyixhyw8617460.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 国泰君安相信，供改一旦推进，将带来供需逆转，全球将进入供给缺口时代。中国产能或许有一定的富余，但海外过去几年每年消化了LME约100万吨库存，加上进口中国的电解铝才能达到供求平衡，一旦中国产量大幅下降，预计全球缺口将会凸显，2018年短缺数量将会达到394万吨左右。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/ClYt-fyixhyw8617469.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/WeuP-fyixhyw8617476.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><img alt="" src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/20170816/xAtX-fyixiay8021428.jpg" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none; padding-top: 0px" /></div>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; font: 16px/2em 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 目前电解铝板块开工率已经高达90%左右，国泰君安判断一旦非合规产能被强制清理，且冬季采暖季节环保停产将影响全国约100万吨产能（若再考虑氧化铝和阳极限产及电解铝复产复产成本巨大，则实际影响量将远超100万吨量级），电解铝短缺态势或在2017Q4即将凸显，供需拐点即将来临。电解铝价格即将步入加速上涨通道，2万元/吨并非遥不可及。</p>
<div class="img_wrapper" style="text-align: justify; padding-bottom: 5px; widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; margin: 5px auto; font: 12px/20px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 16px/32px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 国泰君安相信，电解铝行业进入供给缺口，将带来价格向上的巨大弹性。投资建议方面，基于对铝价有望在产能有效去化情形下高位企稳甚至加速上涨的判断，国泰君安认为，</span><span id="stock_sh601600" style="widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; font: 16px/32px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><a class="keyword" href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh601600/nc.shtml" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17,62,170); text-decoration: none">中国铝业</a></span><span id="quote_sh601600" style="widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; font: 16px/32px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">(<font color="#ff0000">6.960</font>,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><font color="#ff0000">0.26</font>,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><font color="#ff0000">3.88%</font>)</span><span style="widows: 1; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font: 16px/32px 'Microsoft YaHei', u5FAEu8F6Fu96C5u9ED1, Arial, SimSun, u5B8Bu4F53; white-space: normal; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">（601600）降本增效持续推进，业绩拐点已至。 </span></div>
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</p>
<p>(关键字：电解铝 铝价)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：00491）</div>