<h1>石墨电极：18~20年供需或由紧平衡转向过剩 石墨电极或不会掣肘短流程发展</h1>
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	<span>2018-3-27 9:28:49</span>来源：<span>广发证券</span>作者：<span></span>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
			<li>一、石墨电极：电弧炉炼钢关键耗材、原料成本占比达66.88%，超高功率化是发展方向</li>
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			<li>石墨电极 供需 紧平衡转向过剩</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p><span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">一、<b>石墨电极</b>：电弧炉炼钢关键耗材、原料成本占比达66.88%，超高功率化是发展方向</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">石墨电极是无定型碳经过石墨化炉焙烧而成的石墨制品。从生产工艺上看，石墨电极以石油焦、针状焦和煤沥青为主要原材料，原材料成本占比达51.83%。经文中测算，1 吨超高功率石墨电极需针状焦1.02 吨，煤沥青0.29 吨，若按3 月16 日原材料价格计算，超高功率石墨电极的成本价已达39797 元/吨；石墨电极生产工序多达11 道，普通功率石墨电极的生产周期在50 天以上，而超高功率石墨电极的生产周期长达65 天以上；从发展趋势看，超高功率电弧炉是主流发展方向，电弧炉功率提升将驱动500mm 以上直径的高功率和超高功率石墨电极发展；根据中国炭素行业协会统计数据，我国高功率及超高功率石墨电极占比逐年提高，2016 年占比达73%。</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">二、需求端：17 年国内、海外石墨电极表观消费量分别增长3.06%、10.56%，预计18~20 年全球需求年均复合增速达4.88%</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">石墨电极是电炉炼钢关键耗材，且是易耗品，根据高占彪等人2009 年在《炭素技术》期刊上发表的《对电弧炉冶炼中石墨电极消耗及使用的探讨》一文，钢铁冶炼常用交流三相电弧炉石墨电极消耗量在1.5~2.5 kg/t，平均为2.0kg/t；根据我们于2018 年3 月6 日发布的《炼钢工艺发展路径专题之一：短流程VS 长流程-环保与经济性加速短流程发展，上游原材料及耗材产业链或受益》深度报告，2017 年海外在建短流程电弧炉产能为3676.2 万吨，2018~2019 年计划新建电弧炉产能为8835.5 万吨，国内已官方宣布进行产能置换新建电弧炉设计产能为3118万吨，据测算预计2018~2020 年全球将新增石墨电极需求9.27、14.19 和4.92 万吨，合计28.38 万吨。</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">三、供给端：17 年海外、国内产能利用率分别仅72%、64%，国内在建项目产能52.4 万吨，年均复合增速或达13.18%</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从海外看，根据文中测算，2017 年海外石墨电极产能为78 万吨，产能利用率为71.86%；根据各公司年报，2017 年7 家海外龙头石墨电极厂商产能为72.6 万吨，产能份额为93.08%；日本Showa Denko（昭和）为海外产能最大石墨电极厂商，2017 年产能为25 万吨。受制于行业景气度降低、利润下降等影响，海外石墨巨头自2012年以来进行了多次减产、合并，根据印度HEG 公司年报，7 大海外石墨电极厂商产能由2012 年的95.8 万吨大幅下降24.22%至2017 年的72.6 万吨；从国内看，根据中国炭素行业协会统计数据，2017 年我国石墨电极产能为92 万吨，产量为59.09 万吨，产能利用率仅为64.23%；2017 年以来，国内各地市人民政府官网已公开宣布投产、在建、拟建的石墨电极项目总产能至少为52.4 万吨，国内年均复合增速或达13.18%。</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">四、<b>供需</b>平衡：预计2018 年全球石墨电极供需基本平衡，2019、2020 年石墨电极或供大于求</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">根据文中测算，若新增产能均能够满产，则2018 年供需缺口为1 万吨，考虑到原有产能或可通过提高产能利用率实现增产填平供需缺口，2018 年全球石墨电极或处于供需紧平衡的状态；2019 年后，随着国内新建石墨电极项目达产，全球石墨电极总供给开始大于总需求，即2019、2020 年全球石墨电极市场或处于供大于求的状态。</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">五、投资建议：长流程置换短流程成理性选择，2020 年前石墨电极或不会成为短流程发展掣肘</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">通过分析我们认为，政策鼓励短流程，环保限产常态化、超净排放推高环保成本，长流程置换短流程成理性选择，短流程炼钢的发展将驱动石墨电极特别是超高功率石墨电极需求；在高价格、高盈利刺激下，国内已统计到的国内在建石墨电极项目总产能达52.4 万吨，2018 年石墨电极供需基本平衡，19、20 年或将出现供过于求，因此18~20 年石墨电极或将不会成为短流程发展的掣肘因素。</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<br data-filtered="filtered" style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" />
<span style="text-align: left; widows: 2; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; text-indent: 0px; display: inline !important; font-family: Simsun; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; float: none; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">五、风险提示：我国宏观经济大幅下滑；电弧炉产能投放不及预期；炭素制品及原材料价格出现较大波动</span></p>
<p>(关键字：石墨电极 供需 紧平衡转向过剩)</p></div>
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