<h1>金属硅：2014年金属硅市场形势分析与2015年预测</h1>
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<span>2015-1-4 9:35:24</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>袁瑀婷</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>进入2014年，金属硅整个供应呈现下滑趋势，一些产区饱受高电价影响，开工持续偏低。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>金属硅 金属硅市场形势分析</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p><strong>1. 2014年中国<b>金属硅</b>市场分析及2015年金属硅市场展望</strong></p>
<p><strong>1.1 2014年中国金属硅市场分析</strong></p>
<p>进入2014年，金属硅整个供应呈现下滑趋势，一些产区饱受高电价影响，开工持续偏低。</p>
<p>下面来回顾全年市场行情：</p>
<p>1月恰逢元旦及农历新年，商家多在12月中下旬陆续备足1-2月所需金属硅，年末下游铝合金及有机硅等行业进入消费淡季，采购量减少，而此时一些工厂需回笼资金，年前让利销售，因此导致市场价格出现松动。而本月中旬又迎来春运高峰，产品运输不畅，运输车辆难找，且成本增加，也导致金属硅市场成交不乐观。多数业者在进入1月中旬开始退市进入休假期，市场逐渐呈现有价无市的局面。2月受农历新年影响，金属硅市场整体交投气氛清淡，因节日气氛尚未消退，商家多数处于休假当中，市场成交寥寥无几，而南北方各省受到雨雪天气影响，天气恶劣导致运输不畅，一系列的利空因素导致节后市场气氛低迷，上旬市场基本无成交。元宵节过后市场活跃渐显活跃，询盘有所增加，且工厂报价较为坚挺，一方面，目前正值枯水期，市场开工率仅在30%左右，各地资源紧张，工厂多以维持合同户为主，由于生产成本居高不下，市场无低价出货意向。3月开始金属硅市场出现逆转局面，价格由2月份跌势转为涨势，西南产区枯水期，市场开工率约在三成左右，主产区在四川、云南及新疆，而湖南及贵州开工企业寥寥。随着年后各地库存的消耗，各地市场现货紧俏，涨势一直持续到5月，4-5月末进入丰枯水期交替之际，不过乐观的是金属硅市场虽观望气氛逐渐浓厚，但价格依旧高位坚挺至6月下旬，因丰水期开工后，工厂产出率偏低，市场资源依旧有限，因素价格仍趋于稳定。上半年金属硅市场除年初受节日影响行情偏差外，其余几个月整体价格已涨势为主。</p>
<p>进入下半年，硅价以跌势为主，酷暑7月随着西南主产区矿热炉大面积恢复生产，市场供应量放大，前期供货紧张的局面得到改善，由于市场出现供大于求的现象，金属硅成交周周连续下行，成交清淡。进入丰水期后，市场开工率有所增加，当然，虽今年整体市场开工不如去年，但市场需求毕竟有限，随着开工企业增加，产品供应量呈现放大趋势，因此价格出现松动。商家在价格开始出现下跌的同时，已经驻足观望，且对后市不看好，受买涨不买跌心态影响，购货较为谨慎，除按需采购外，其余商家均在等待价格继续下降。时值下游行业消费淡季，铝合金及三氯氢硅行业需求有限，加之国外市场处于夏休。9月，金属硅市场一路上扬，价格涨幅千元左右。往年市场价格上涨表现在10月份后，而今年稍有提前，一方面，国外市场夏休结束，已陆续采购四季度订单，在出口方面或好于前期；另一方面，由于产区电价以及原料硅石等客观因素，影响产品产出率。随着近期下游对低品位金属硅购买需求增加，其价格也逐渐上涨，工厂多以订单为主，库存稀少，因此惜售心理增强，对于报价十分坚挺，硅价便呈现上涨走势。10月，金属硅市场整体表现清淡，价格呈下行趋势。由于10月恰逢国庆长假，上旬市场成交寥寥，下游用户购买积极性偏低，多数持观望态度。月中，金属硅市场运行平稳，市场对电价调整传闻愈演愈烈，硅企并不急于销售，随着后期成本的升高，各地区将出现停产减产迹象，供应量将有所减少，市场价格依旧保持坚挺。月末，逢工厂缴纳电费，一些工厂开始低于主流报价出货。 11月金属硅市场延续10月末走势，硅价继续呈现下行趋势，由于前期市场价格上涨频率快，导致价格偏高，而市场开工一直处于平稳中，故产品出现供大于求的局面，迫于无奈，硅企降价销售。年末，下游铝合金、有机硅等行业需求清淡，而铝合金因受环保要求，部分企业出现停产迹象，对金属硅需求有所减少。虽然进入枯水期后工厂将面临停炉，供应将减少，但眼下市场需求再次减弱，对金属硅市场无疑是一个打击，部分已计划停产的企业待原料消耗完毕后将关闭矿热炉，手中库存也不急于清理。12月硅市交投气氛清淡，市场主流价格依旧处于下滑通道，虽然枯水期电价调整后已有工厂表示将在本月内陆续停产，但目前硅市现状依旧表现为供应不平衡，工厂销售不畅，由于各地电价情况不一，近期金属硅价格略显混乱，加之市场后期走势并不明朗，因此观望情绪浓厚。金属硅下游行业市场需求清淡，国内下游铝合金企业会在11月进行冬储，但是今年由于铝硅价差收窄，铝合金厂采购金属硅的成本增加，当前维持按需采购，导致对原料采购减少。目前四川及云南部分地区已出台电价调整通知，涨幅基本在0.1元/千瓦时，这样一来，成本将增加千元或更多，企业利润空间受到打压，一些工厂剩余原料仍未消耗完，处于消耗原料的工厂或将会在本月陆续停产，而坚持开炉生产的企业压力依旧不小，年末市场需求转淡，多数工厂均有库存，一些为回笼资金也低价出货，因此市场存在竞争压力，因此硅市仍以弱势为主。下半年硅市除9月价格大幅走高外，随后便呈现一路下行走势。</p>
<p><strong>1.2 2014年1月-2014年12月中国金属硅价格分析</strong></p>
<p>1-2月金属硅市场价格低位运行，由于新年将至，下游行业需求清淡，市场采购量较少，到了3月价格出现回升，因当时西南产区正执枯水期，开工率偏低，在年后商家陆续返回市场后，购货热情逐渐升温，涨势持续至6月，随着丰水期电价下调，6月中下旬市场价格便开始回落，一直持续至8月，市场开工率偏高，下游需求有限导致价格下跌，9-10月价格以小幅上涨为主，商家陆续准备四季度订单，市场采购热情得以提升。10月过后下游市场需求转淡，对金属硅需求减少，前期的上涨速度过快使商家难以接受，因此价格便出现下滑至年末。</p>
<p><img alt="" width="599" height="286" src="/ContentImage/ArticalImages/2015/01/04/20150104082028/092644.gif" /></p>
<p><strong>2. 2014年中国金属硅出口市场行情回顾</strong></p>
<p>2014年1-10月，中国累计出口金属硅约72.3万吨，相比去年1-10月的56.9万吨有所增加，今年除2月出口数量偏低外，其余各月出口量均在6-8万吨的水平，2月时值中国农历新年，出口市场需求大幅回落，多数商家早在1月中下旬便退市休假，而外商也赶在节前提前备好所需用量，因此出口数量出现大幅回落。随着节日气氛消退，3月出口市场便迎来好转，市场购货积极性提高，因此出口数量也随之上涨。5-6月出口数量相对而言稍有下滑，因国内市场5月进入丰枯水期交替之际，外商驻足观望，采购热情降低，多数等待金属硅价格回落后再开始采购，7月出口量大幅增长，主要为国外市场夏休，外商提前备货，而国内硅价自7月回落开始，出口采购也好于前期，直至9月出口市场继续向好，由于国内市场8月末价格上涨，整体市场看涨心态显著，购货积极性提高，部分外商开始补货，9月出口市场成交活跃，出口数量有所增加。10月受中国国内硅市价格走跌及10月末将调整生产电价影响，外商驻足观望，出口数量有所回落。</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">149,805,338<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">74,235<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">162,350,009<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">64,087<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">140,693,897<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">67,198<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">148,582,340<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">85,041<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">190,431,540<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">81,182<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">184,026,651<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">89,669<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">208,632,753<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">76,934<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">183,227,599<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes">
<td width="50%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 50%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: #99ccff; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2014</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年<span lang="EN-US">1-10</span>月合计<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
</td>
<td width="23%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 23.36%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: #99ccff; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">722,725<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td width="26%" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 26.64%; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: #99ccff; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1,619,964,178<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</p>
<p><img alt="" width="602" height="308" src="/ContentImage/ArticalImages/2015/01/04/20150104082028/092808.gif" /></p>
<p><strong>4. 2015年中国金属硅市场后市预测</strong></p>
<p><strong>1、 宏观方面</strong></p>
<p>展望2015年，世界经济将继续保持复苏态势，国内基本面和改革因素仍可支撑经济中高速增长，但一些短期、结构性与长期性因素将会对经济增长造成冲击和制约。要把2015年经济增长保持在合理区间，要继续实施和完善积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，发挥好改革和各类政策的合力。今年我国的经济增速虽有所回落，但在结构调整、改善民生等方面取得了一些积极进展，经济运行中不乏亮点。一是经济结构继续优化。二是就业与居民收入增长较快。三是消费热点继续保持热度。四是化解产能过剩和节能减排取得积极进展。经济运行中的突出问题和矛盾，在充分肯定今年经济工作取得的成绩的同时，也要认识到当前经济运行中还存在着一些突出的问题和矛盾，特别是经济下行压力较大的风险不容忽视。一是投资增长后劲不足。二是融资瓶颈约束凸显。三是企业经营依然困难。</p>
<p>不利因素和风险隐患在于：一是世界经济中的风险性不确定性因素仍较多。首先，全球经济总体未恢复到危机前增长水平，国际贸易保护主义不断抬头以及由于土地、劳动力等综合成本上升造成我国出口国际竞争力有所下降，这些因素仍持续对我国外贸出口造成不利影响。其次，主要发达经济体宏观政策分化和转换带来的冲击。第三，地缘政治形势更加动荡。<br />
二是房地产市场短期难以出现强劲回升。今年以来房地产市场景气度不断下降，虽然已出台了解除限购、放宽首套房贷款认定标准和降息等政策，这些政策可能在边际上改善房地产市场形势，但受房地产市场阶段性过剩严重、房价下行预期强等因素影响难以很快扭转低迷态势。房地产行业前后向产业关联度高，与钢铁、建材、家电、装饰材料等多个行业紧密相关，且房地产投资占固定资产投资比重达四分之一，房地产市场低迷将严重掣肘投资及相关行业的增长。三是环保指标造成的强约束。“十二五”规划中期评估显示，环保指标完成进度滞后，规划中4个节能环保的约束性指标都未能达标。为了确保节能环保指标在“十二五”后两年达标，国家将“实施最严格的资源节约和生态环境保护制度”。2015年是“十二五”规划的收官之年，有些地方为完成环保指标，可能会采取强制措施。四是供给因素约束不断加强。劳动力、土地、资本等供给因素进一步趋紧，对经济增长的约束不断加强。</p>
<p><strong>2、 下游市场</strong></p>
<p>多晶硅：在2011至2013年持续的产能过剩以及价格低谷持久的痛苦时期后，全球多晶硅市场在2014年强劲反弹。价格的持续上涨以及对于终端市场发展新的信心，日前激励产能扩张计划的恢复以及重新启动许多此前关闭的工厂。多晶硅价格回升让多晶硅生产企业重拾信心，即使今年年初价格小幅下滑也没能阻挡企业复产、扩产的脚步。加上目前开工的产能，预计未来2年国内总产能将超过30万吨，但多晶硅国内年消费量仅16万吨左右。从目前的市场发展趋势来看，多晶硅价格反弹至25美元/千克以上的可能性微乎其微，成本在25美元/千克的企业将不具备任何竞争优势，这部分的产能接近10万吨。由此推断，我国多晶硅行业将再现产能结构性过剩。</p>
<p><strong>3、 供应方面</strong></p>
<p>2015年金属硅产能将进一步增大，其中包括新疆地区16万吨左右的产能。今年年末金属硅库存较多，再加上明年新增产能的投放，下游则无法完全消化，明年金属硅市场或仍将过剩。新疆地区明年新建投产的金属硅产能较多。确定投产的包括3台16500KVA、2台12500KVA拟建，2台12500KVA投产。此外，据悉东方希望预计明年将在新疆投产10万吨金属硅。如此一来，明年新疆地区新增产能总计将增加16万吨左右。</p>
<p>综上，企业不断扩大产能规模，而下游需求依旧处于过剩当中，预计2015年金属硅市场受供应过剩影响，形势依旧严峻。<br />
</p>
<p>(关键字：金属硅 金属硅市场形势分析)</p></div>
<div class="v2_comtent_info04">（责任编辑：01066）</div>