<h1>2012年4月份中国甲醇市场回顾及后市预测</h1>
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<span>2012-5-3 8:41:20</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>陈建兵</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>4月初由于国内产量预期增加，传统下游产品甲醛需求较差，甲醇市场价格盘整下滑。4月中旬以来，甲醇外盘一路上涨，甲醇CFR中国从380美金涨至目前的405美金，涨幅6.5%，外盘持续上涨引发月末华东甲醇逼空行情。到截稿时为止江苏港口出罐价格高至3130-3150元/吨。</li>
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<ul>
<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>甲醇 甲醇市场</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月初由于国内产量预期增加，传统下游产品甲醛需求较差，<b>甲醇</b>市场价格盘整下滑。<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月中旬以来，甲醇外盘一路上涨，甲醇<span lang="EN-US">CFR</span>中国从<span lang="EN-US">380</span>美金涨至目前的<span lang="EN-US">405</span>美金，涨幅<span lang="EN-US">6.5%</span>，外盘持续上涨引发月末华东甲醇逼空行情。到截稿时为止江苏港口出罐价格高至<span lang="EN-US">3130-3150</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。本月南非和西班牙主权信用评级遭降，国内成品油价格上调后降价促销，醇醚燃料、甲醇制烯烃、甲醇制乙二醇等新兴能源消费需求增加。国产甲醇与港口价格差距拉大，对港口价格也有一定冲击。谷雨节气后，雨水增多，下游甲醛跟涨乏力。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">伊朗、印度、马来西亚、文莱和国内部分甲醇装置检修影响。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">伊朗甲醇即期或者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black"><font face="Times New Roman">TT</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">外盘还有出货，信用证和船运担保问题，并没有阻止伊朗甲醇货源外运，但进口数量恐有所减少。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、进口货减少有限</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">据悉从</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><st1:chsdate isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="10" month="4" year="2012" w:st="on"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">10</span>日起</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-size: 14px">，伊朗甲醇生产商因找不到合适的船，甲醇装运数量大幅缩减。受此影响，伊朗<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月对华装运甲醇的总量由此前每月平均<span lang="EN-US">30</span>万吨减至<span lang="EN-US">15</span>万吨左右，而其中大部分是</span><st1:chsdate isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="10" month="4" year="2012" w:st="on"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">10</span>日前</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-size: 14px">装运。而据伊朗有关人士表示，即便找到船，也主要以小吨位的船为主，且优先装运如苯乙烯、乙二醇等高附加值的货物，而甲醇装运优先级较低。考虑到<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月下旬伊朗装运的甲醇有可能要延至<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月内抵达中国，同时考虑到伊朗目前租船和清洗船只的情况，初步预计伊朗<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月内到达中国的甲醇总量将进一步削减至<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万吨以内。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、天气影响</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月月底谷雨节气后，我国大部分地区雨水明显增多，板材厂家进入生产消费淡季，甲醛销售价格跟涨乏力。</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份中国甲醇进口量环比增加</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月份我国甲醇进口量较上个月有所增加，进口量恢复到接近<span lang="EN-US">50</span>万吨，但同比去年同期有所减少，其中从伊朗进口的甲醇不到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万吨，同比去年同期增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black">12%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">。进口量较去年又明显增加的来源国，主要有巴林、新西兰、德国、委内瑞拉、文莱。较去年同期进口量显著减少的来源国主要有：印尼和日本。</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、下游开工率下降</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">今年春节后甲醛需求恢复一直比较缓慢，产能过剩严重，下游板材厂家开工不足，生产消费萎缩，南方今年雨季提前到来，下游需求更加惨淡。由于二甲醚厂家停车或检修装置增加，二甲醚近期销售价格虽然有所回升，但销售还未有太大改观。</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、国内新增产能和重启检修装置</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.75pt; line-height: 21pt; text-indent: 21pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月份内蒙新奥甲醇装置停车检修，博源和苏里格甲醇轮流检修，兖矿国宏和榆林生产也不稳定，开开停停。但内蒙久泰甲醇可能还要推迟停车检修，截至<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月初，目前大部分甲醇装置都已恢复生产，加之泸天化甲醇重启，新疆吐哈甲醇恢复销售，预计<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份国内甲醇整体产量还将有所增加。</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14px"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">综上所述：<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份后南方大部陆续进入雨季，二甲醚销售价格还较差，生产积极性不高，国内产量继续提高，<span lang="EN-US">4-5</span>月份进口货减少多少，还存在很大疑问，但外盘价格高企，对进口商接盘积极性有所打击，加之中国股市引来利好消息刺激，交易费下降，甲醇期货和电子盘还可能推高现货价格可能，但整体幅度还是有限。</span></span></p>
<p>(关键字：甲醇 甲醇市场)</p></div>
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