<h1>尿素：行情继续疲软 业内信心不足3月第三周</h1>
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<span>2013-3-22 10:34:09</span>来源：<span></span>作者：<span>杨卢义</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>本周国内尿素行情仍有小幅波动，南方大部分地区出厂价以稳为主，北方地区则受农业市场回暖而略带涨势。</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>尿素 尿素分析</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">行情回顾：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt">本周国内<b>尿素</b>行情仍有小幅波动，南方大部分地区出厂价以稳为主，北方地区则受农业市场回暖而略带涨势。由于今年春耕期间不断有“倒春寒”侵扰，农业返青行情明显被推迟。也因此出现不少对后市本就缺少信心的经销商提前抛售，此举令下游悲观情绪加重。好在企业及时挺价，逐渐使行情得以企稳。截止本周末，山东、河北等北方区域企业报价稳定在2100-2140元/吨，且在农业市场启动的利好支撑下，行情已被业内看好；南方大部分地区农业需求疲软，两湖以及两广市场呈现跌势；西南地区更是因为气头尿素企业普遍复产出现了供求过剩的局面。总体较上周相比，尿素走势还算乐观。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="432" x:str="" style="width: 324pt; border-collapse: collapse">
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<td class="xl78" height="19" width="72" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: #99ccff; width: 54pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><strong><font size="2" face="宋体">省份</font></strong></td>
<td class="xl76" width="72" x:num="41355" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: #99ccff; width: 54pt; border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><strong><font size="2" face="宋体">13-3-22</font></strong></td>
<td class="xl78" width="72" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: #99ccff; width: 54pt; border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><strong><font size="2" face="宋体">省份</font></strong></td>
<td class="xl76" width="72" x:num="41355" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: #99ccff; width: 54pt; border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><strong><font size="2" face="宋体">13-3-22</font></strong></td>
<td class="xl78" width="72" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: #99ccff; width: 54pt; border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><strong><font size="2" face="宋体">省份</font></strong></td>
<td class="xl76" width="72" x:num="41355" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: #99ccff; width: 54pt; border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><strong><font size="2" face="宋体">13-3-22</font></strong></td>
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<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">河北</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2080-2100</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">湖北</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2170-2190</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">云南</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2240-2250</font></td>
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<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">山西</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2060-2080</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">河南</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2130-2150</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">贵州</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2200-2220</font></td>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.25pt">
<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">天津</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">-</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">福建</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2200-2220</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">广西</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2250-2260</font></td>
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<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">山东</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2110-2130</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">广东</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">-</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">重庆</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2150-2160</font></td>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.25pt">
<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">江苏</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2180-2200</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">海南</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2150-2250</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">内蒙古</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2200-2230</font></td>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.25pt">
<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">安徽</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2110-2120</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">黑龙江</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2280-2300</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">陕西</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2150-2200</font></td>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.25pt">
<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">江西</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2180-2200</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">吉林</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2250-2260</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">宁夏</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2100-2110</font></td>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.25pt">
<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">浙江</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2200-2230</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">辽宁</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2250-2280</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">甘肃</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2100-2150</font></td>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.25pt">
<td class="xl79" height="19" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent; height: 14.25pt; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">湖南</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2190-2200</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">四川</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2150-2200</font></td>
<td class="xl79" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: transparent; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">新疆</font></td>
<td class="xl77" style="border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-left: windowtext; background-color: white; border-top: windowtext; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid"><font size="2" face="宋体">2000-2050</font></td>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">影响因素：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><strong>国内需求：</strong>凭借对农业用肥推迟的说法，经销商对春耕仍有一丝期盼，加之复合肥企业采购在即。因此，普遍看好四月的国内市场。然而目前下游库存情况并不明朗，不免令业内有些担忧。从省级以及大农资公司的操作来看，短期除了销售库存以外，似乎没有采购计划。而且这一切还要看北方返青肥使用以后的需求情况来定。高氮肥企业采购也是慢条斯理，有意进一步看清尿素走势。预计本月底到四月上旬，国内需求暂时看好。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p><strong>尿素集港：</strong>由于本周国内尿素价格小幅波动，集港订单量也有所减少，前期高价集港的贸易商多少有些悔意。但考虑到后期出口仍被看好，也只能暂时保持观望态度。目前集港价已跌至2170元/吨左右。根据目前国际尿素价格推算，中国离岸价仍能支撑国内2200元/吨以上的出厂价。但从目前仅是在高关税的情况下，报价虚高。如果按尤日内的离岸价计算国内企业出厂也能达到2140元/吨。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">后市预测：</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt">综上所述，月底随着北方农业市场启动，下游库存也会得以消化。如果经销商依旧看好后市，就会很会进行新一轮采购。而且复合肥企业在看到短期不存在跌价可能性的情况下，也会采购生产高氮肥的原料，尿素企业销售压力将得以缓解。预计四月上旬，山东尿素价格有望反弹至2180-2200元/吨。后市暂时看好。</p>
<p>(关键字：尿素 尿素分析)</p></div>
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