<h2 class="newsinfo_title">磷酸：9月第三周国内磷矿石市场分析评述 12.09.24</h2>
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<li>2012-9-24 8:58:35</li>
<li>来源：中商网撰写</li>
<li>作者：石化编辑</li>
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<td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
<td>磷酸 国内磷矿石 磷矿石市场</td>
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<td>磷酸 国内磷矿石 磷矿石市场</td>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 19.5pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体">本周（<span lang="EN-US">9.14-9.21</span>）</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">磷矿石开采成本上升，预计未来价格下跌空间不大。目前当地中小型企业平均吨成本（码头价）在<span lang="EN-US">390 </span>元左右，成本包括开采和运输，资源管理费<span lang="EN-US">(</span>占<span lang="EN-US">1/3)</span>，开采权和固定资产折旧等，而税前价<span lang="EN-US">580 </span>元，毛利率仅<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>，并不如市场之前预期磷矿石企业已经进入暴利阶段。随着磷矿石资源属性日益突出，具体体现在开采权价格将继续上升<span lang="EN-US">(</span>目前行业平均<span lang="EN-US">15‐20 </span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨储量），未来磷矿石价格将受成本的强烈支撑。在产量和价格上，当地政府主导作用强大。在探矿权和采矿权的发放上，当地政府以项目配资源，只有企业在当地投资磷矿深加工项目，才会配以一定的磷矿石资源。此外，当地政府通过资源管理费和配额制度，控制成本和销量，变相主导了磷矿石的价格。目前宜昌地区市场平均资源管理费达到<span lang="EN-US">140 </span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，占到磷矿石总成本的<span lang="EN-US">1/3</span>，而实行配额，控制了企业的产销量，即控制了企业的每吨折旧。预计未来政府对磷矿石资源的把控只可能更为严格，企业对政府的依赖性也可能越来越大。磷矿石储量还有提升的空间。之前市场普遍认为湖北磷矿石矿区已经开发成熟，未来获得大规模储量空间不大，但据我们了解的情况，仅在湖北夷陵地区，在三峡坝区所划红线之内，还存在大量未开发的磷矿资源。未来，随着当地政府对磷矿开采权的分发趋严，那些产业发展符合政府未来方向，大力带动当地财税收入和就业，具备良好政府关系的企业，有望获得更多矿产资源的配套，增厚资源储量。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 4.5pt; text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 19.5pt; text-align: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">贵州地区：</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">贵州地区整体矿山开采稳定，</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??">贵州地区磷矿石市场成交良好，走势平稳。开阳地区</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??">品位磷矿石车板价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman">620-650</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??">吨，出货顺畅，产量稳定，</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">贵州福泉地区多数磷矿山暂未复采，磷矿山整体出货量减少，矿企暂无明显调价计划，<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>品质坑口价<span lang="EN-US">445</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">云南地区：</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">云南地区磷矿山整体开采率依旧不高，市场新单成交清淡，<span lang="EN-US">28%</span>品质坑口含税<span lang="EN-US">300</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右。<span style="color: black">部分四川企业为维持生产，在云南地区部分采购磺磷矿石，外发有所提高。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">四川地区：</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">四川地区磷矿石市场供应紧张。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">乐山雷波县受道路运输影响持续，磺磷矿少量经货车外运，多数磷矿石积压库存，市场现货供应不足小幅支撑当地报价，<span lang="EN-US">28%</span>品质标矿<span lang="EN-US">330</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右；马边地区磷矿山整体出货量不稳，多数矿山受前期整顿影响持续，<span lang="EN-US">28%</span>品质县城交货价<span lang="EN-US">345</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">湖北地区：</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">湖北地区磷矿石成交量持续稳定，部分磷肥厂家采购，加之受雨水影响矿山停采较多，出货紧张。湖北地区</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">主销低品位磷矿石，高品位自用为主，暂不对外报价，目前磷矿石价格稳定，开采正常，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">品味磷矿石船板价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">380</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">24</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">品味船板价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">340-350</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">湖南地区：</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">湖南地区磷矿石市场，<span lang="EN-US">28</span>品位磷矿石坑口价<span lang="EN-US">600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，<span lang="EN-US">24</span>品位磷矿石<span lang="EN-US">350</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，价格稳定，出货紧张，主供省内化肥企业，也有部分发货至广东广西等地。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">后市预测：</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">下游磷肥市场需求低迷，但磷矿开采率偏低，同时受雨水和运输影响较大，<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月末部分贵州矿山陆续开采，价格略微上涨，基于此预计<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月磷矿石成交稳中有升。</span></p>
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