<h1>黄磷1月评：磷价格先下跌后走稳。</h1>
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	<span>2020-2-5 11:28:43</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>刘冰</span>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
			<li>1月黄磷价格先下跌后走稳。</li>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
			<li>黄磷 市场 评述</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font face="宋体"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">12</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">月<b>黄磷</b>价格下调，需求清淡。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></font></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">1</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">月黄磷价格下调，供应下降。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">【价格分析】<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">2020</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月黄磷价格先下跌后走稳，月初价格延续<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份跌势，累计下调<span lang="EN-US">500-600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨<span lang="EN-US">;</span>中下旬价格走稳。从均价看，<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月黄磷月均价<span lang="EN-US">16362</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，环比下跌<span lang="EN-US">7.6%</span>。分阶段看影响价格的原因如下：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">第一，<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月上旬，黄磷<b>市场</b>价格继续下行，调幅收窄，累计下调<span lang="EN-US">500-600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。市场交投氛围相对较好，新单成交量有所增加。部分下游采购商春节前补货，工厂出货压力缓解，价格下调速度放缓。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">第二，<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月中下旬，市场行情清淡。由于春节临近，黄磷企业报价偏少，以走稳为主。市场上交投冷清，仅有少量新单成交。下游采购需求减少，多观望春节后市场行情。市场逐渐进入春节模式，厂家以发运节前订单为主。临近年末物流停运，市场收发货速度放缓。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">【供应分析】<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">2020</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月黄磷产量减少。据不完全统计，<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月产量约<span lang="EN-US">4.621</span>万吨，环比下调<span lang="EN-US">1.97%</span>，同比减少<span lang="EN-US">3.3%</span>。其中，和<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月相比，云南地区减少<span lang="EN-US">1%</span>，贵州地区增加<span lang="EN-US">34%</span>，四川地区减少<span lang="EN-US">28%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">2020</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月主产区供应变动总结如下：<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">云南地区<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月产量约<span lang="EN-US">2.73</span>万吨，环比下调<span lang="EN-US">1%</span>。月初昆明地区有个别工厂复产<span lang="EN-US">;1</span>月底，受春节和新型冠状病毒疫情影响，发货受阻，工厂原材料短缺，部分工厂装置停炉，与月初相比，云南地区黄磷装置开工率从<span lang="EN-US">46%</span>下降到<span lang="EN-US">32%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">贵州地区供应增加。<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月产量<span lang="EN-US">5140</span>吨，环比上调<span lang="EN-US">34%</span>。<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月下旬开阳地区和瓮安地区复产的两家企业在本月生产逐渐稳定，整体供应增加。截止月底，贵州地区装置开工率<span lang="EN-US">24%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">四川地区<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月产量约<span lang="EN-US">7740</span>吨，环比下调<span lang="EN-US">28%</span>。在<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月下旬有个别工厂安排检修，个别工厂春节前停炉，川内供应下降。截止月底，四川地区装置开工率<span lang="EN-US">14%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">【需求分析】<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">1</span><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">月黄磷需求市场采购积极性低，春节前备货现象不明显。从下游主要产品看，磷酸开工下降，内销和出口市场均表现不佳<span lang="EN-US">;</span>草甘膦部分工厂设备检修，<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份产量有所下降，市场内有库存仍需消化<span lang="EN-US">;</span>其他磷化物供需清淡，对黄磷保持按需采购。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">【后市分析】<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">预计<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月黄磷市场观望调整，市场交投恢复缓慢。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">第一，从需求看，受新型冠状病毒疫情影响，下游部分企业复工时间延迟，短期内需求市场恢复缓慢。部分省份发布了企业延期开工的通知，湖北省复产时间在<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月<span lang="EN-US">13</span>日之后，浙江省、江苏省、广东省、云南省、吉林省等多地政府要求企业复产时间在<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月<span lang="EN-US">9</span>日之后。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt">第二，目前多地高速路段<span lang="EN-US">&ldquo;</span>封路<span lang="EN-US">&rdquo;</span>，物流运输短期内很难恢复正常，企业发运受限<span lang="EN-US">;</span>此外部分企业将面临原料短缺问题，预计短期内有降负荷生产的可能。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p>(关键字：黄磷 市场 评述)</p></div>
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