<h1>氢钙5月评：本月DCP市场价格上涨</h1>
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	<span>2021-5-31 16:33:21</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>刘冰</span>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
			<li>本月DCP市场价格上涨</li>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
			<li>氢钙 市场 评述</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p>中 商 网 讯</p>
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<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 24.1pt"><span style="line-height: 150%; color: #191919; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
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<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">本月<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span><b>市场</b>价格上涨。价格上涨原因分析：第一，原料硫酸价格上涨，且供应紧缺<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第二，市场产能、产量不足，部分企业装置持续低负荷生产，交货紧张。本月<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>市场行情运行呈现出如下特征：第一，原料价格持续上涨，<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>企业生产成本压力较大<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第二，因硫酸紧缺以及云南地区<span lang="EN-US">&ldquo;</span>限电<span lang="EN-US">&rdquo;</span>政策影响，云南主产区多数企业装置开工受限，部分暂停生产，部分持续低负荷生产，产能产量不足，企业发运前期预收订单为主，交货较为紧张<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第三，原料成本高支撑，加之场内供应量有限，磷酸<b>氢钙</b>市场价格不断上行，据跟踪统计，本月云南主产区<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>涨幅约<span lang="EN-US">200-250</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，四川产区涨幅约<span lang="EN-US">400</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，湖北地区涨幅约<span lang="EN-US">350</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第四，<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>市场价格上涨至高位运行，场内交投较为谨慎，一方面，<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>企业因生产成本较高，签单谨慎，另一方面，下游对于市场高价拿货谨慎。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">价格方面：本月国内<span lang="EN-US">17%</span>粉状饲料级磷酸氢钙市场均价在<span lang="EN-US">1906</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，环比上涨<span lang="EN-US">8.60%</span>。云南主产区涨幅约<span lang="EN-US">200-250</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，四川产区涨幅约<span lang="EN-US">400</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，湖北地区涨幅约<span lang="EN-US">350</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。截止目前，云南主产区因硫酸货紧价高，多数企业持续停签停报，个别参考出厂报价上涨至<span lang="EN-US">2050-2100</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。四川产区主流出厂报价上涨至<span lang="EN-US">2300</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，主流成交价格至<span lang="EN-US">2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，湖北地区主流出厂报价上涨至<span lang="EN-US">2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，主流成交价格至<span lang="EN-US">2200</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右。贵州地区参考出厂报价至<span lang="EN-US">2100</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，赤峰川联参考出厂报价至<span lang="EN-US">2100</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。价格上涨原因分析：第一，原料硫酸价格不断上涨，企业生产成本持续加压<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第二，硫酸供应紧缺及云南地区<span lang="EN-US">&ldquo;</span>限电<span lang="EN-US">&rdquo;</span>政策影响，<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>市场产能产量开工不足，企业交货紧张<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第三，贸易商出货表现较好，市场货源流通加速。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">供应方面：本月国内<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>产量预计<span lang="EN-US">17.73</span>万吨，较上月产量增加，开工率同步提升，但<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>整体市场产能产量开工依然表现不足。本月<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>市场整体开工率约<span lang="EN-US">39.22%</span>，多数企业装置并未开满，部分装置持续低负荷运行或暂停生产。分析原因：第一，原料硫酸紧缺<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第二，云南地区<span lang="EN-US">&ldquo;</span>限电<span lang="EN-US">&rdquo;</span>政策影响<span lang="EN-US">;</span>第三，环保因素。截止目前，场内装置停车企业有：富民世翔、云南新龙、昆明云盘山、四川盘龙、绵竹三佳、四川汉源、湖北楚襄、贵州利丰达。云南立隆、四川金鸿、山东利丰达装置持续处于停车状态。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">需求方面：本月<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>市场价格不断上涨，下游采购较为谨慎，按需拿货为主，对于前期已签订单接货积极性较高。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">成本方面：本月云南地区<span lang="EN-US">98%</span>硫酸接货价格上涨约<span lang="EN-US">70</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，四川地区<span lang="EN-US">98%</span>硫酸接货价格上涨约<span lang="EN-US">105</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，截止目前，云南地区<span lang="EN-US">98%</span>硫酸接货价格上涨至<span lang="EN-US">600</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨左右，四川地区<span lang="EN-US">98%</span>硫酸主流到厂价上涨至<span lang="EN-US">540-650</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。理论上，目前云南地区企业生产成本约在<span lang="EN-US">1920</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，四川地区企业生产成本约在<span lang="EN-US">2014</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">利润方面：本月<span lang="EN-US">DCP</span>市场成本与价格同向增长，但盈利情况依然表现不佳。每次价格上涨之后，短时市场高价新单成交量并不多，企业多以执行前期订单为主，而随着原料持续上涨，在生产成本不断加压下，企业执行前期订单基本毫无利润可言甚至出现亏损情况。理论上，目前云南主产区生产毛利润约<span lang="EN-US">30</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，四川地区生产毛利润约<span lang="EN-US">186</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="宋体">后市预测：预计短期内原料硫酸依然货紧价高，成本面高支持下，加之产能产量有限，磷酸氢钙市场价格行情仍有上行可能。具体行情走势仍需关注后期原料硫酸价格及场内供应情况。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
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<p>(关键字：氢钙 市场 评述)</p></div>
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