<h2 class="newsinfo_title">电解铝：利多因素叠加 铝价延续上周反弹行情</h2>
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<li>2012-9-17 9:55:45</li>
<li>来源：中商网撰写</li>
<li>作者：褚令晖</li>
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<td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
<td>中商网讯：本周（9.10-9.14）伦铝价格强势上涨，国内铝价受外盘带动，延续上涨行情，美国推出QE3，上周欧洲央行购债计划的推出及德国法院同意ESM也令欧元区逐步走向正规；此外，从中国官方公布的货币数据来看，中国政府也正在实施宽松的货币政策。众多利多因素的叠加令铝价反弹。从周均价看，LME伦铝环比</td>
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<td width="25" align="center"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_11.gif" /></td>
<td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
<td>铝价 伦铝 美联储 QE3 库存</td>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">中商网讯：本周（9.10-9.14）伦铝价格强势上涨，国内<strong>铝价</strong>受外盘带动，延续上涨行情，美国推出QE3，上周欧洲央行购债计划的推出及德国法院同意ESM也令欧元区逐步走向正规；此外，从中国官方公布的货币数据来看，中国政府也正在实施宽松的货币政策。众多利多因素的叠加令铝价反弹。从周均价看，LME伦铝环比上涨6.9%,沪铝1212合约环比上涨1.6%，上海现货铝环比上涨0.44%。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p>外盘市场，本周<strong>伦铝</strong>价格继续大幅冲高，波动幅度主要维持在2020-2150美元/吨之间。受<strong>美联储</strong>的宽松预期推动，伦铝自周初起就一路连续冲高；周四晚间，随着<strong>QE3</strong>的落实，铝价更是出现大幅拉升，周末盘中时最高一度上探至2150美元附近；从技术上分析，目前铝价上方已再无明显阻力，短期内或有重返2200美元上方的可能。但市场对此次量化宽松的影响，已经提前消化了大部分；所以预计后市铝价能继续冲高的空间或许已经不大。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: center">图一 沪铝1211LME三个月铝对比走势图<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" width="340" height="225" src="/ContentImage/ArticalImages/2012/09/17/2012091709554500675/095618.jpg" /></p>
<p style="text-indent: 21pt; background: white; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">LME<strong>库存</strong>本周继续上升，截止9月14日增加137550吨至5008975吨。沪铝1212合约周均价环比上涨1.6%，上海现货铝周均价环比上涨0.44%，上海期货交易所铝库存增加6140吨至387176吨。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: center">图二 沪铝1211现货铝价对比走势图<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" width="340" height="225" src="/ContentImage/ArticalImages/2012/09/17/2012091709554500675/095650.jpg" /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan">沪铝主力合约本周也延续升势，波动幅度主要维持在15700-15990元/吨之间。总体上看沪铝本周的走势其实应算相对偏弱的，除周初时受外盘提振而大幅高开外，其后一直是维持着小幅震荡的走势；不过外盘走势实在强健，才支撑着沪铝没有出现较大回调；也正是如此前所预期的那样勉强站稳15700元/吨上方，保持向上运行的趋势不变。仅周末时，受美联储正式推出QE3的重大利好影响，沪铝才终于再次大幅跳空高开，不过随后即呈现回调态势；还好回调幅度不深，所以后市仍有继续冲高的希望，不过预计其应难有效突破16100元/吨附近阻力；因为突破该阻力位后，铝价就有望继续向16400元/吨方向运动；目前来看，沪铝短期内或不具备如此大的反弹动能。<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">单位：元/吨</span></div>
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<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">日期</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">长江</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">华通</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">广东</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">中铝</span></div>
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<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-10</span></div>
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<div align="center">15470</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15465</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15460</div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15733.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-11</span></div>
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<div align="center">15440</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15455</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15430</div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15733.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-12</span></div>
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<td width="53" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 40pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15440</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15460</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15430</div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15733.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-13</span></div>
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<div align="center">15430</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15435</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15430</div>
</td>
<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15733.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-14</span></div>
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<td width="53" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 40pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15540</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15555</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div>15530</div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15833.33</div>
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<p> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan">本周现货市场铝锭价格尾随期铝震荡上行，华东铝价波动在15410-15560元/吨之间。周初时，现货铝价一度小幅高开，但随后期铝开始逐步震荡回调，带动现货铝价也一路相应下挫；直至周五早盘时，受美联储正式推出QE3的影响，隔夜外盘股市和金属价格皆全线大涨，而国内沪铝也相应大幅高开，虽随后有所回落，但仍是推动着现货铝价也创出了近阶段的新高。而从当前形势来看，预计短期内铝价或仍有小幅冲高的可能，目前下游需求仍持续不振，供需失衡已令统计在案的铝库存就达到了近90万吨，而隐藏库存更是要远远超过这个数字；所以未来对市场来说，去库存阶段仍将经历一个漫长的过程。华南现货市场铝锭价格波动幅度在15550-15760元/吨之间。近期华南地区现货铝价走势与华东地区极为相似，两地的价差一直维持在200元/吨左右。不过华南地区市场成交情况或更趋低迷；特别是逢涨时，下游都鲜有接货意愿。目前来看，上下游供需双方的意见分歧较大，短期内市场交投情况或仍难有明显好转的趋势。<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></o:p></span><o:p>（关键词：铝价 伦铝 美联储 QE3 库存）</o:p></p>
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<div class="pT25 t-r f14 cGray01">（责任编辑：00675）</div>
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