<h2 class="newsinfo_title">电解铝：基本面压制 铝价小幅回落</h2>
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<li>2012-9-24 10:26:32</li>
<li>来源：中商网撰写</li>
<li>作者：褚令晖</li>
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<td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
<td>本周（9.17-9.21）随着市场利多因素逐渐被消化，铝价受制于基本面因素的影响，小幅回落。从周均价看，LME伦铝环比上涨1.5%,沪铝1212合约环比下跌0.06%，上海现货铝环比上涨0.4%。</td>
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<td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
<td>铝价 基本面 LME铝价 沪铝 库存</td>
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<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">中商网讯：本周（9.17-9.21）随着市场利多因素逐渐被消化，<strong>铝价</strong>受制于<strong>基本面</strong>因素的影响，小幅回落。从周均价看，LME<strong>伦铝</strong>环比上涨1.5%,沪铝1212合约环比下跌0.06%，上海现货铝环比上涨0.4%。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p>外盘市场，本周伦铝呈大幅回落态势，波动幅度主要维持在2100-2190美元/吨之间。因QE3的影响已逐渐减弱，加之原油价格又遭到大幅回调，所以伦铝也呈现出承压回落的态势；但笔者认为这仅是因铝价短期内冲高过快，而进行的一轮阶段性回调、休整。目前对国际铝价来说，基本面的影响正日趋转弱，而金融属性的影响却得到前所未有的增强。这正是因为那些超大型贸易商的存在，如高盛、嘉能可等金融资本已控制了绝大多数的铝库存，并且将其作为抵押品，用以融资来买入更多的库存；而维持这种操作方式的前提，就是铝价在整体趋势上要维持上涨。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: center">图一 沪铝1211LME三个月铝对比走势图<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" width="340" height="225" src="/ContentImage/ArticalImages/2012/09/24/2012092410263200675/102710.jpg" /></p>
<p style="text-indent: 21pt; background: white; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">LME库存本周继续上升，截止9月21日增加76875吨至5085850吨。沪铝1212合约周均价环比下跌0.06%，上海现货铝周均价环比上涨0.4%，上海期货交易所铝库存增加9299吨至396475吨。<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: center">图二 沪铝1211现货铝价对比走势图<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" width="340" height="225" src="/ContentImage/ArticalImages/2012/09/24/2012092410263200675/102737.jpg" /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan">本周沪铝主力合约也小幅回落，波动幅度主要维持在15685-15990元/吨之间。沪铝本周走势相对外盘依然偏弱，而且随着铝价上行动能的逐渐转弱，后市或难免再遭回调风险。不过从中长期趋势来看，伦铝或将转为上升趋势，所以沪铝受其带动应也难再有太大跌幅，而且此后也会随之逐步小幅回升；因此对后市的预期就是短期看跌、而中长期看涨。<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">单位：元/吨</span></div>
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<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">日期</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">长江</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">华通</span></div>
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<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">广东</span></div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt">中铝</span></div>
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<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-17</span></div>
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<div align="center">15570</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15570</div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">15500</span></div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15833.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-18</span></div>
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<td width="53" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 40pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">15550</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15550</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15480</span></div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15833.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-19</span></div>
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<td width="53" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 40pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">15540</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15540</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15500</span></div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15833.33</div>
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<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-20</span></div>
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<td width="53" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 40pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">15520</span></div>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15520</span></div>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15510</div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15733.33</div>
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<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td width="92" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 68.85pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">2012-9-21</span></div>
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<td width="53" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 40pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; background: white; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt">15530</span></div>
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<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center"><span style="color: black">15530</span></div>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="51" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 38.3pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div>15530</div>
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<td width="78" nowrap="nowrap" style="border-bottom: windowtext 1pt solid; border-left: #ece9d8; padding-bottom: 0cm; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 58.65pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; height: 15pt; border-top: #ece9d8; border-right: windowtext 1pt solid; padding-top: 0cm">
<div align="center">15733.33</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan">本周华东地区现货铝价整体呈小幅震荡态势，波动幅度主要维持在 15500-15590元/吨之间。由于国内期铝波动空间相对偏小，所以导致现货铝价也呈现震荡走势；周初时，现铝延续前期升势尚一度小幅冲高，但随后即一路连续回调，仅周末时略显企稳反弹。不过铝价的小幅波动，对萧条已久的现货市场来说，并不能引发多大变动；下游商家依然是维持按需采购，而且随着铝价再次表现滞涨，商家对后市的信心都明显下降。而从当前形势来看，预计短期内华东铝价或将继续向15400元/吨方向回调，然后就可能转为震荡走势。华南现货铝价大幅反弹，波动幅度在 15550-15760元/吨之间。华南与华东市场的价差一直维持在200元/吨左右。不过从总体上看，华南地区市场成交情况或更趋低迷；特别是逢涨时，下游都鲜有接货意愿。目前来看，上下游供需双方的意见分歧较大，短期内市场交投情况或仍难有明显好转的趋势。</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="text-align: left; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span><o:p>（关键词：铝价 基本面 LME铝价 沪铝 库存）</o:p><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<div class="pT25 t-r f14 cGray01">（责任编辑：00675）</div>
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