<h2 class="newsinfo_title">人民币汇率持续走高 中国内地未现热钱大量进入</h2>
	 <p class="divH10"></p>
	 <div class="divH20">
		<ul class="newsinfo_tips fl">
		  <li>2012-10-30 9:13:06</li>    
		  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
		  <li>作者：褚令晖</li>
		</ul>
		<!--ul class="newsinfo_tips fr">
		  <li>字号：</li>
		  <li><span class="pt5"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/btn_05.jpg" /></span></li>
		  <li><span class="pt5"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/btn_06.jpg" /></span></li>
		</ul-->
	 </div>
	 <div class="divH10"></div>
	 <div class="divH25">
	 <ul class="newsinfo_tips02 fl cGray01">
		<li><span class="newsinfo_ico"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_01.gif" /></span><a href="#">投稿</a></li> 
		<li><span class="newsinfo_ico"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_02.gif" /></span><a href="#">打印</a></li> 
		<li><span class="newsinfo_ico"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_03.gif" /></span><a href="#">收藏</a></li>
	<!-- Baidu Button BEGIN -->
	<div id="bdshare" class="bdshare_t bds_tools get-codes-bdshare">
		<span class="bds_more">分享到：</span>
		<a class="bds_qzone"></a>
		<a class="bds_tsina"></a>
		<a class="bds_tqq"></a>
		<a class="bds_renren"></a>
	</div>
	<script type="text/javascript" id="bdshare_js" data="type=tools&amp;uid=684790" ></script>
	<script type="text/javascript" id="bdshell_js"></script>
	<script type="text/javascript">
		document.getElementById("bdshell_js").src = "http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/js/shell_v2.js?cdnversion=" + new Date().getHours();
	</script>
	<!-- Baidu Button END -->
	</ul>
 </div>
 <div class="divH20"></div>
 <div class="newsinfo_introduceBox">
	<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="newsinfo_introduce">
		 <tr>
		   <td>
			   <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="newsinfo_introduce_tab">                     
				  <tr>
					  <td width="25" align="center"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_09.gif" /></td>
					  <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
					  <td>29日人民币对美元汇率中间价达近半年以来的高点,即期汇率也于早盘再创历史新高并逼近交易区间上限?</td>
				  </tr>
				  <tr>
					  <td width="25" align="center"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_11.gif" /></td>
					  <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
					  <td>汇率 人民币 热钱</td>
				  </tr>
			   </table>
		   </td>
		 </tr>
	</table>  
 </div>
<div class="divH20"></div>
<div class="over_x"><p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><strong><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">人民币汇率</font></span></strong><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近期继续走高?</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">29</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">日人民币对美元汇率中间价达近半年以来的高点</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">即期汇率也于早盘再创历史新高并逼近交易区间上限?分析人士指出</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近期人民币汇率持续走高主要受发达国家出台第三轮<strong>量化宽松政策</strong>影响</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">但中国内地并未面临<strong>热钱</strong>大量进入的局面?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,29</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">日</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">人民币对美元汇率中间价连续第三个交易日走高</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">报</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">6.2992,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">是今年</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">5</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">11</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">日以来的新高?即期市场上</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">人民币对美元汇率继上周五盘中突破</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">6.24</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">关口后</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,29</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">日早盘再度创出</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">6.2371</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">的历史新高?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">值得注意的是</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近期港元汇价持续走强</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">香港金管局</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">3</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年来首次入市</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">五天内四度买入美元</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">抛出港元</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">以稳定港元汇价?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">国际金融专家赵庆明认为</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近期确实存在国际短期资本涌入香港?美联储推出第三轮量化宽松政策后</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">国际上开始看空美元</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">看多非美元货币?最近中国公布了三季度宏观数据</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">整体上看</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">经济已经触底回升</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">这在一定程度上增加了亚洲尤其是香港对国际短期资本的吸引力</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">跨境资本流动趋势出现逆转?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">但他认为</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">这并不意味着中国内地经济面临国际游资的入侵?自</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">2003</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年前后</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">国际上出现人民币升值论以来</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">确实国际上有些热钱性质的资金进入内地?但与香港资本项目高度开放不同</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国内地对资本项目实行管制</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">这些热钱性质的资金主要通过贸易?个人汇款?外商直接投资以及相关外债等方式或渠道混入?无论哪种方式或渠道进入内地</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">都不是一朝一夕能实现的?也正因为如此</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">多数严谨的研究人员将其与国际上常见的热钱相区别</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">称其为热钱性质的资金?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">对外经济贸易大学金融学院院长丁志杰说</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近日人民币汇率持续走高主要由于发达国家政策变化导致汇率预期变化所致</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">不排除一部分投机性和套利性的资金进入</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">但不足以对中国经济造成危害?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">人民银行数据显示</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月份</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国金融机构外汇占款在</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">7</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月?</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">8</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月连续两月负增长后首次正增长</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">且月增长规模达</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">1306.79</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">亿元</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">创出今年以来的月度次高?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">赵庆明认为</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">这主要是外汇市场上对人民币汇率的预期由此前的贬值转向升值</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">企业和个人由此前的偏向持有外汇转为卖出外汇转持人民币?今年前</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">8</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">个月</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国外汇存款平均每个月增加接近</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">200</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">亿美元</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">今年</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">9</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">月份</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">不仅未增</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">反而减少</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">12</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">亿美元</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">恰恰解释了</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">9</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">月新增外汇占款的来源?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">受人民币贬值预期影响</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">继二季度后</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">第三季度中国资本和金融项目再现</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">710</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">亿美元逆差?前三季度资本和金融项目累计逆差达</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">854</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">亿美元?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">对此</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">国家外汇管理局表示</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">主要受国际金融危机和国内经济增速放缓等因素影响</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">自</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">2011</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">年四季度至今年三季度末</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国外汇市场供求平衡</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">外汇储备基本稳定?中国通过贸易等经常项目交易获得的外汇资产</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">不再为央行持有</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">而主要转为境内机构和个人分散持有</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">是藏汇于民的表现?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率表现强劲</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">但用于衡量海外市场对人民币升值预期的海外无本金交割远期市场</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">(NDF)</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">仍然存在一定贬值预期?远期结售汇也继续呈现逆差?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">国家开发银行研究院副院长曹红辉说</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">近期中国经济的积极因素正在逐步积累?但欧美债务危机短期内难以结束</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国出口大幅增长的趋势从中长期看难以维持</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">人民币并不存在大幅升值或大幅贬值的基础?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">丁志杰指出</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国国际收支正处于趋势性的改变时期?国际收支双顺差的格局正转变为经常项目顺差与资本和金融项目逆差的自平衡状态</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">外汇储备持续大幅增长的格局开始改变?随着人民币汇率接近均衡</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">中国将面临短期资本流入或流出频繁出现的现象</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">这对中国外汇管理提出一些新的挑战?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style="line-height: 120%; word-break: break-all"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">赵庆明说</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">尽管内地不会出现所谓的热钱大规模涌入</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">但是对于热钱或者说异常资金流入确实仍需保持高度警惕?监管部门应对热钱流出的主要渠道加强监控</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">对于不合法的外汇收入加大处罚力度</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">决不姑息?最近几年</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">热钱流入有所减少除了国际大环境有利外</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">与监管部门加大打击力度也是分不开的?除此之外</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><font face="宋体">政府层面应加强疏导</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt">,</span><font face="宋体"><span style="line-height: 120%; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">尤其要管理好市场预期?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 120%; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;（关键词：人民币 汇率 美元 量化宽松）</font></o:p></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
	<div class="divH20"></div>
	<div class="pT25 t-r f14 cGray01">（责任编辑：00675）</div>
	<div class="divH20"></div>