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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">港口库存不断增加 铁矿石“空头”氛围更浓了</h2>
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						      <li>2016-6-22 8:47:57</li>    
							  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
							  <li>作者：杨进先</li>
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									              <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
												  <td>近日受下游市场表现不景气的影响，铁矿石市场难有起色，各钢企对原料库存量严格把控，采购态度也不积极。在钢企不断降低原料库存的打压下</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>铁矿石 库存</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">近日受下游市场表现不景气的影响，<b>铁矿石</b>市场难有起色，各钢企对原料<b>库存</b>量严格把控，采购态度也不积极。在钢企不断降低原料库存的打压下</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">铁矿石港口库存量不断增长，国外矿山的发货量也不断增加，铁矿石市场供给压力加大，下游市场需求力度走弱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">与此同时，消息称全球最大的铁矿石生产商巴西淡水河谷正与多家亚洲矿业公司磋商，有可能出售巴西铁矿石资产，交易规模最高或达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">70</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">接受经济导报记者采访的业内人士表示，由于行业惯性，铁矿石行业还处在扩产阶段，铁矿石供应量将只增不减。以上因素造成了铁矿石供应量远大于需求量，价格将会持续处于低位。而近期铁矿石市场价格仍将有回落，市场看空情绪再起。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">铁矿石压港严重</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&ldquo;现在我们的铁矿石基本上是按需采购，库存在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨左右，差不多够</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">天使用，此前高峰期库存量曾达上百万吨。&rdquo;山东一家本土钢铁企业的采购部经理王博告诉导报记者。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在王博看来，熊市之中，钢厂购矿意愿低迷，普遍回归此前长期执行的低库存策略，将原料压缩至仅满足当前生产所需的极低水平，因而企业原料库存压力有限。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">分析师在接受导报记者采访时表示，今年以来其所在的钢厂一直采取&ldquo;低库存、多批次&rdquo;的采购策略，铁矿石库存属于偏低水平。据钢铁协会监测，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月末，企业进口铁矿石库存量为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4100</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，环比下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，降幅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.11%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">企业铁矿石库存降低的背后，则是港口库存在攀升。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">数据显示，全国进口铁矿石港口库存量为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.02</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨，环比上升</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">178</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，同比上升</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1855</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨；</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1-4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份，全国生铁产量为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨，同比减少</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">864</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨；而同期进口铁矿石</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3.25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨，同比增加</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1858</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨。铁矿石市场供大于求态势仍较明显。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">而机构提供的最新数据显示，中国港口铁矿石库存增至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.02</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨，为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2014</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以来最高水平。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">铁矿石港口库存增加的同时，国外矿山的发货量却有增无减。近一周，澳大利亚铁矿石出货</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1552</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，增加</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">116</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨；力拓发中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">523</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，增加</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">61</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨；必和必拓发往中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">449</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，增</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨；</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">FMG</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（澳大利亚第三大铁矿石出口商）发往中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">384</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，增加</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">53</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">据连云港检验检疫局最新施检数据显示，</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="16" month="6" year="2016"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">16</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">连云港口岸单日进出港铁矿石散货船共计</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">艘，共承载各类铁矿石</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">110.7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，创连云港口岸铁矿石单日到港数量之最。而该港</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份单月铁矿石进口量创下了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">852.3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨的历史记录。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">价格或持续低位</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">分析师认为，虽然中国正在大力稳步推行钢铁行业去产能和经济稳增长策略，但附加值高的加工钢、精密钢和高强钢却在逐渐增加，且国际铁矿石市场的供大于求趋势在未来两至三年内不会改变，仅会因价格的下跌而淘汰高成本矿山，但低成本大矿山的增产也在逐渐弥补此缺口。所以铁矿石供需市场均在缩量，但供应缩量大于需求。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">数据显示，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月末，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">CSPI</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（钢材基准价格指数）国内钢材综合价格指数为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">69.97</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">点，比</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月末降低</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">14.69</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">点，降幅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">17.35%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，环比由升转降。据钢铁协会旬报统计，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月中上旬会员钢铁企业粗钢平均日产量为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">177.66</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨，比</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份上升</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.13%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，仍保持高水平。进入夏季后，随着钢材需求减弱、钢价下行以及在去产能、去库存的背景下，钢铁生产继续扩大的可能性较小，铁矿石需求也难以增加。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">据导报记者了解，当前华东地区已正式进入梅雨季节，全国地区出现大范围高温降雨天气，这令本来脆弱的钢材市场基本面再受冲击。国内钢市需求疲软的现状短期依然难改，预计短期国内钢价仍将延续弱势整理走势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">分析师在接受导报记者采访时表示，世界各国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">增长缓慢，对原料等商品消耗量减少。此外中国作为世界产钢第一大国，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2014</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年钢铁产量达到顶峰，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2015</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年开始下滑，对铁矿石需求量远远低于供应量。再次，成品钢材价格大幅下跌，多数钢厂出现亏损，压低铁矿石价格。最后，由于行业惯性，铁矿石行业还处在扩产阶段，铁矿石供应量将只增不减。以上因素造成了铁矿石供应量远远大于需求量，价格将会持续处于低位。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：铁矿石 库存)</p></div>
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