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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">矿价跟随钢价波段式下跌</h2>
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						      <li>2017-1-5 8:34:12</li>    
							  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
							  <li>作者：杨进先</li>
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									              <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
												  <td>矿价跟随钢价波段式下跌</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>矿价 钢价</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">供应端政策性收缩</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">PK</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">终端需求回落</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，大部分工业品迎来了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以来的超级大牛市。其中，黑色系表现最为亮眼。展望</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，供应侧改革进一步发酵，但终端需求面临下滑风险，<b>矿价</b>或跟随<b>钢价</b>呈波段式下跌。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">除了供给侧改革之外，终端需求的弱复苏为今年价格大涨加了一把火。继</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2015</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中国粗钢产量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年来首次负增长后，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年粗钢产量恢复正增长，且表观消费量同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.8%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。从需求分项来看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的需求支撑主要源自房地产、汽车和基建。展望</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，基建增速或能维持</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，汽车增量由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">15%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">下降至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">7%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，但房地产需求下滑是大概率事件。房地产需求下滑，基建部分少量对冲，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年粗钢消费预计下滑</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">市场对</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中国房地产需求下滑分歧不大，矛盾点主要在需求拐点落地时点。我们认为，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">房地产需求下滑是大概率事件，且拐点可能已经在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年年底出现。根据我们的需求模型，房地产需求将拖累</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年钢材</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个百分点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">供应侧改革对传统需求逻辑主线形成冲击。&ldquo;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">276</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">政策&rdquo;引发了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年动力煤、焦煤、焦炭的大涨，而年底中频炉事件启动，让市场将</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">焦点转至钢铁行业去产能。但与去年煤炭行业去产能不同的是，今年钢铁行业去产能面临终端需求下滑，技术实施难度大的困境，年内钢铁去产能对市场冲击或更多为脉冲式。去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底，江苏中频炉全部关停消息突然传出，随后山东、四川、唐山等地跟进，涉及关停产能近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">8000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万吨。按照</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">Mysteel</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">全国中频炉</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿&mdash;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨的产能估算，涉及关停产能已过半。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">由于中频炉完全依赖废钢而不涉及铁矿石和焦煤，故其去产能有利于传统高炉的需求提高。假设终端需求零增长，中频炉停产或提高铁矿石需求</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，这也是年末市场多头的主要逻辑之一。不过去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底环保大检查过去后，随着年底钢厂利润快速攀高，已有少量中频炉悄然复产，后续进展仍待观察。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">除拆除过剩产能外，另一干扰产量释放的手段在于环保限产。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">全年环保限产成为常规化调控手段，上半年园博会、下半年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">G20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">峰会均出现较长期的限产，而年底随着北方雾霾加重，高炉开工始终限在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">75%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">附近，中长期限产无疑更严，这也是造成黑色短期冲击的因素之一。但今年钢铁去产能预计难以重演煤焦的大涨行情，较之去年的区别主要有：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">第一，去年需求弱复苏，今年需求不乐观。煤焦大涨背景在于去年房地产需求温和向好，且供应端直接去产量。但今年房地产需求已然下滑，需求端大概率走弱，而供应端政策导向为去产能而非直接去产量。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">第二，钢铁行业去产能技术性难度大于煤炭。煤矿国有企业占比大、产地集中，钢铁企业民营占比大且极为分散。钢铁行业有效去产能需一系列人员、资金配置。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">第三，钢铁去产能表现为脉冲式冲击。去年煤炭去产能冲击较大的原因是政策延续性超预期。煤炭&ldquo;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">276</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&rdquo;政策</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月即开始执行，但在库存缓冲下直到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月现货才全面紧缺。目前年钢铁行业不是大规模集中拆高炉而导致产能不够，在充裕资金和利润支撑下，供应端短暂收缩后能够看到产量随即跟上。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">因此，虽有市场炒作钢铁去产能，但实际效果尚待观测。去产能冲击配合环保限产常态化，钢厂中长期利润重心上移，今年大概率不会重现供不应求。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">综上，今年矿价整体趋势较为悲观，或从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">80</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元高位回落至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元。考虑行业低库存和一季度供需错配行情，黑色高点或出现在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月&mdash;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月。宏观方面，警惕原油价格上涨和货币环境变化的影响。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">套利方面，对钢厂中长期利润普遍看好，建议年内逢低做多钢厂利润；铁矿石</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1705</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合约大幅贴水，关注</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月&mdash;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月合约正套。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>(关键字：矿价 钢价)</p></div>
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					  <div class="pT25 t-r f14 cGray01">（责任编辑：01112）</div>
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