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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">人民币汇率创逾5个月新低</h2>
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<li>2018-6-20 8:30:34</li>
<li>来源：中商网撰写</li>
<li>作者：杨进先</li>
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<td>人民币汇率创逾5个月新低</td>
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<td>人民币 汇率</td>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="19" month="6" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，在美元指数大幅反弹的情况下，<b>人民币</b>兑美元<b>汇率</b>再度走弱，在岸人民币兑美元汇率大幅收跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">575</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">点报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.4743</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，创逾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个月新低。市场人士指出，近期美欧央行“一鹰一鸽”表态助升美元指数，全球贸易形势下避险情绪升温也有利于美元多头，短期内人民币兑美元汇率可能偏弱运行，但汇率预期稳定导致其继续下行的空间也将有限。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">人民币明显走跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="19" month="6" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">早间，中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币兑美元中间价报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.4235</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，较前一日调升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">71</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个基点，不过受美元指数日内大幅反弹影响，人民币即期汇率明显走跌。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">从盘面上看，银行间外汇市场上，昨日在岸人民币兑美元汇率低开近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">300</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">点报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.4450</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，上午低位盘整较长时间，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">13</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">后突然加速下行，盘中迅速跌破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.45</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.46</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.47</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">关口，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">16:30</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">收盘报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.4743</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，创逾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个月新低，较上一交易日大跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">575</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">点。随后人民币汇率又继续下探，至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">00</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.4760</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，逼近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.48</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">关口。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">香港市场方面，离岸人民币兑美元即期汇率日内由涨转跌，日内连破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.45</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.46</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.47</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.48</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.49</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">五道关口，截至北京时间</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">00</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6.4892</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">345</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">此次人民币汇率大跌仍是受到美元走强的影响。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">19</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日盘中，美元指数突然拉升，从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">94.54</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">快速上行至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">95.25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">附近，盘中涨幅超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">0.5%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，多头势头强劲。主要非美货币则相应明显走软，如欧元兑美元昨日跌逾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">0.7%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，澳元兑美元跌近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">短期偏弱震荡</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">市场人士指出，全球贸易形势再起波澜，引发避险情绪升温，有利于美元多头积累人气，叠加近期美欧央行“一鹰一鸽”表态的背景，若美国经济数据继续向好，包括人民币在内的主要非美货币可能将继续承压。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">申万宏源证券在最新研报中指出，尽管美联储</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月利率决议小幅上修年内加息预期，但美联储内部对于年内加息路径及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2019</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年联邦基金利率预期的分歧仍然显著。此外，美国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月制造业产出与工业产出均环比大幅下滑，全球贸易形势再度紧张化、解决方案或将落地，中长期来看，松财政、紧货币的政策及贸易保护举措，都将对美国经济产生负面影响。而欧央行政策声明虽然偏鸽，但对核心通胀的乐观程度有所改善。欧央行继续稳健开启紧缩进程仍然可期，年内欧元与英镑汇率难以进一步走弱，预计美元指数中期将承压。而我国年内国际收支有望维持小幅净流入，人民币汇率大概率将窄幅波动。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">东兴期货则表示，美国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月整体通胀和核心通胀进一步回升，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月制造业指数好于预期，二季度经济表现靓丽，通胀的回升也使得美联储增加了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的加息次数，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2019</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年将继续加息周期。欧元区二季度经济仍然没有走出一季度的疲弱状态，高频数据显示经济尚处于回落状态，欧央行</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月利率会议表态鸽派，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">QE</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">将在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年结束，四季度购债规模进一步减半至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">150</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿欧元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月，欧央行退出宽松货币政策的节奏是非常谨慎的，不及市场此前预期的迅速，欧元兑美元回落。短期内，新兴市场货币仍将维持弱势。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>(关键字：人民币 汇率)</p></div>
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<div class="pT25 t-r f14 cGray01">（责任编辑：01112）</div>
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