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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">今年中国粗钢产需将达9亿吨</h2>
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						      <li>2018-8-16 6:45:53</li>    
							  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
							  <li>作者：杨进先</li>
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												  <td>今年中国粗钢产需将达9亿吨</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>粗钢</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">今年以来，在环保限产要求不断的背景下，全国<b>粗钢</b>与钢材产量仍实现了较大幅度增长，不断创下新高。分析师陈克新分析指出，全年全国粗钢产量将达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨，加上</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">多万吨的粗钢进口量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">以钢材进口量折算</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，全部新增资源量势必突破</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">今年，在&ldquo;蓝天保卫战&rdquo;的攻坚要求下，各地纷纷出台环保措施，其中钢铁行业成为控制排放的主要领域。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">如</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月初，唐山市政府发布《唐山市钢铁、焦化超低排放和燃煤电厂深度减排实施方案》，此后一个月内唐山各级政府单位发布限产相关政策高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">次。生态环境部近日下发的《京津冀及周边地区</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018~2019</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》意见征询稿要求，对钢铁、焦化、铸造行业实施部分错峰生产，建材行业实施全面错峰生产。其中，重点城市采暖季钢铁产能限产</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">50%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">；其他城市限产比例不得低于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">30%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。方案相较去年执行力度更严，限产时间有可能延长。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">数据显示，今年上半年，全国粗钢产量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">45116</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万吨，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">；钢材产量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">53085</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万吨，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，增速提高</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4.9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个百分点。其中，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份全国粗钢产量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8020</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万吨，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7.5%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">；钢材产量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9551</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万吨，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7.2%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">在陈克新看来，全国粗钢与钢材产量持续的较大幅度增长，主要是源于消费需求的拉动。&ldquo;一般而言，当年生产的粗钢与钢材只能有两条出路：首先是进入消费，剩余部分进入库存，表现为社会库存量与钢铁企业库存量的相应增加。&rdquo;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">考虑到今年以来全国钢材社会库存与钢铁企业库存同比均未有大幅增长，甚至比前期库存高点还有显著下降，这就表明上半年全国粗钢与钢材产量，也包括较大幅度的增长量，基本上都转化为消费量。换言之，上半年的全国粗钢新增资源量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">同期产量加进口量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">45818</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万吨，而同期的全国粗钢实际消费量也大约在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4.6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨左右。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">陈克新在分析下半年全国粗钢</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">钢材</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">供需形势时指出，在需求侧，决策部门扩大基建投资来稳定国内经济增长，应对外部需求严峻形势；加之偏向宽松的货币政策与更加积极的财政政策配合，且人民币汇率贬值对于出口关税壁垒有一定抵消效应，如果不出现大的意外，全国粗钢</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">钢材</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">总需求将有增无减，会突破</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨整数关口。在供应侧，决策部门扩内需的拉动加之较高利润的驱使，钢铁企业势必在下半年积极增产。全年全国粗钢产量会达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨，再加上</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">多万吨的粗钢进口量</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">以钢材进口量折算</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，全部新增资源量势必突破</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨。如果下半年全国钢材库存没有异常增加，那么全年粗钢实际消费量会达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿吨。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：粗钢)</p></div>
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