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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">下一轮调控重点须从房价转向地价</h2>
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						      <li>2018-8-20 6:48:34</li>    
							  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
							  <li>作者：杨进先</li>
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									              <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
												  <td>下一轮调控重点须从房价转向地价</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>房价 地价 调控</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">对开发商来说，高价拿地不可能低价售房。拿的<b>地价</b>格越高，<b>房价</b>就会越高。反之，则越低。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">根据上海易居地产研究院数据，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4~7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月，地价同比增幅已连续</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月下跌，而房价同比增幅连续</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月小幅上涨，到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份，房价同比涨幅已大于地价同比涨幅。这也是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份以来，地价涨幅首次低于房价涨幅。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">众所周知，地价是房价的主要构成部分，从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2003</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年房地产市场放开以来，地价占房价的比重就一直处于上升态势。在建筑成本、各种规费等相对稳定的情况下，影响房价的主要因素应当是地价。地价涨，则房价涨；地价稳，则房价稳；地价下降，房价也就能够下降。否则，房价很难出现下降。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">事实也是，发达国家之所以房价比较稳定，最主要的原因之一就是地价占房价的比重不是很高。美国地价占房价的比重长期徘徊在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">20%~30%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">之间，主要城市也就在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">30%~40%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。英国则保持在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">25%~38%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">之间，瑞典只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">20%~22%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。因此，房价的变动主要是由市场的变化引起的。一旦市场处于低迷状态，房价很快就能出现下降现象。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">更重要的，房价不受制于地价，相关的风险会更小。因为开发商无法利用土地从银行获得更多资金支持，土地与金融的关系也就没有那么密切，即便出现房价下跌，也不会给银行带来很大的风险。相反，如果土地与金融的关系过于密切，开发商的贷款主要依赖于土地的价值从银行获得。那么，一旦房价下跌，就有可能引发金融风险。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日本房地产危机的爆发，很大程度上源于土地与金融的关系过于密切。根据日本通产省和日本银行</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1998</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年的调查，日本主要城市地价占房价的比重在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">60%~75%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">之间，东京则超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">85%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。所以，日本最终爆发房地产市场危机，导致日本经济出现严重衰退，直到现在房地产危机留下的影响都未完全消除。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">正因为如此，如何降低地价在房价中的比重，对解决房价过高的问题，特别是遏制房价上涨具有十分重要的作用。只有让地价上涨的步伐停下来，房价上涨的步子才能放慢，并最终回到理性轨道。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">目前一系列的<b>调控</b>政策，已经对开发商、炒房者等参与者的行为形成了有效约束。从开发商的角度来看，资金闸门的持续收紧，已经让相当一部分开发商没有了继续疯狂拿地、尤其是高价拿地的动力。一些资金实力不强的开发商，甚至已经通过股权转让的方式保持资金平衡，确保资金链不断裂。资金实力较为雄厚的开发商，也不敢再像过去一样拼命负债拿地，而是择地而拿，没有十足把握赚钱的土地，一般不会轻易出手。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">如此一来，土地流拍的现象日益明显。据中原地产研究中心统计数据显示，今年前</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月，一线城市土地流标共有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">13</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗，创下</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2012</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年以来的新高，而去年同期仅有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗土地流标；二线城市土地流标共</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">154</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年同期为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">77</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗；三线、四线城市土地流标合计达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">629</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗，而</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年同期为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">284</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗。今年前</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月，全国房地产市场土地流标共</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">796</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">宗。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">显然，土地流拍现象增多与地价涨幅下降是密切相关的。正是因为开发商拿地的动力减弱，才导致地价上涨的动力下降，继而带来地价涨幅回落。如果对开发商的融资环境再收紧一点，调控的力度再加大一点，开发商拿地的动力会进一步降低，流拍等现象会更多，地价也会更加趋于理性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">此前，调控的重点主要放在后端的房价上，限购限售限贷等，确实对房价起到有效的遏制作用，房价涨幅明显放缓。当政策发力到一定时候，如果继续紧盯房价不放，而不把重点转向地价上，房价上涨的内在动力就难以得到有效遏制。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">毕竟，对开发商来说，高价拿地不可能低价售房。拿的地价格越高，房价就会越高。反之，则越低。所以，下一轮调控重点必须从房价转向地价。一方面，有效增加土地供给，缓解土地供需矛盾，以此降低地价；另一方面，降低土地出让金征收比例，降低土地成本。在此基础上，加大市场整治力度，坚决遏制炒房。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">近期出现的两年多来地价涨幅首次低于房价涨幅消息，传递的是积极信号。至少，说明调控已经产生比较好的效果，遏制房价上涨已经传导到地价，并有可能与房价产生互动，最终推动房价的下降。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：房价 地价 调控)</p></div>
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