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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">财政逐步支出 央行结束连续净投放</h2>
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<li>2018-8-23 6:46:32</li>
<li>来源：中商网撰写</li>
<li>作者：杨进先</li>
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<td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
<td>财政逐步支出 央行结束连续净投放</td>
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<td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
<td>财政 央行</td>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">在连续</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日实施流动性净投放之后，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">22</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日，<b>央行</b>没有继续开展逆回购操作。央行称，临近月末<b>财政</b>逐步支出，可对冲政府债券发行缴款等因素的影响。市场人士称，月末财政支出增多，资金面应无太大问题，本周后两日有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">900</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元央行逆回购到期，央行会否对冲值得关注。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">央行未开展逆回购操作</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">22</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日，央行未开展公开市场操作，因无央行流动性工具到期，此举未造成净回笼或净投放。此前持续了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日的净投放也宣告就此终结。从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">15</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日开始，央行先后运用</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">、逆回购等工具实施流动性净投放，累计净投放</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3465</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">除了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">续作是“规定动作”之外，央行这一轮净投放的目的主要是对冲税期、政府债券发行缴款的影响。根据相关安排，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">15</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日是本月主要税种申报缴款截止日，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">15</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日及其前后几日是税期因素对流动性扰动最大的时期。另外，从上周开始，地方债发行节奏加快，单周发行量突破了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，而地方债发行缴款也会造成财政存款暂时性上升，形成流动性回笼。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">本周以来，税期扰动解除，前两日央行继续开展公开市场操作，以对冲政府债券发行缴款的影响。不过，随着月末财政支出逐渐增多，流动性供求矛盾缓解，央行继续提供流动性支持的必要性有所下降。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">22</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日，央行交易公告指出，临近月末财政逐步支出，可对冲政府债券发行缴款等因素的影响，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">22</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日不开展公开市场操作。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月末财政支出逐渐发力</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">从往年来看，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月是传统的税收小月，财政支出大于收入，财政存款多会下降，从而增加流动性。而财政库款划拨多集中在月末进行，今后一周半时间，财政支出有望逐渐增多，形成一定的流动性供给。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">另外，《关于做好地方政府专项债券发行工作的意见》</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">财库</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">72</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">号文</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">其实有两方面的要求，一是加快地方专项债发行，二是加快债券资金拨付使用。因此，虽然地方债加快发行会给流动性造成一定的扰动，但如果财政支出节奏加快，将有望在一定程度降低债券发行对流动性的冲击。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">事实上，一些机构认为，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份及</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月上旬，流动性之所以极为充裕，除了央行实施定向降准、开展</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">操作等投放了较多资金以外，可能还与财政支出加快有关。数据显示，今年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份，财政存款减少</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6888</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，减少量多于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6165</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元；</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份，财政存款增加</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9345</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，增加量少于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">11600</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">当然，今后一两个月，地方债、国债等政府债发行仍将给流动性造成持续性的影响。对此，除了财政资金加快支出以外，可能也需要央行适时适量开展货币政策操作，熨平流动性波动，保持流动性合理充裕。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">国盛证券刘郁称，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">23</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">24</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日将分别到期</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">400</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">900</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元央行逆回购。从以往情况来看，政府财政支出往往集中在月末进行，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">22</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日可能还不到财政支出的时点。最近两天资金利率出现见顶回落的迹象，关注届时央行是否投放资金对冲逆回购到期。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：财政 央行)</p></div>
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