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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">资金面持续宽松 静候MLF操作</h2>
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						      <li>2018-9-4 6:41:14</li>    
							  <li>来源：中商网撰写</li>    
							  <li>作者：杨进先</li>
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									              <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
												  <td>资金面持续宽松 静候MLF操作</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>资金 MLF</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月初时点，央行继续停做逆回购，无碍<b>资金</b>面呈现季节性宽松。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日，货币市场利率多数走低，资金面持续宽松。市场人士预计，续做到期</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri"><b>MLF</b></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">料将是本周央行唯一的一次公开市场操作，量价均值得关注，而央行逆回购大概率将持续停做。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月初流动性充裕</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">不出市场所料，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日，央行公开市场操作仍没有动静，央行逆回购交易自</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">22</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日起已连停</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日。因无央行流动性工具到期，昨日央行资金投放量和回笼量均为零。央行公开市场业务交易公告称，目前银行体系流动性总量处于较高水平，可吸收政府债券发行缴款等因素的影响，故不开展公开市场操作。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">昨日市场资金面一派宽松，货币市场利率多数走低。银行间市场上，存款类机构短期回购利率纷纷走低，其中隔夜回购利率微跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.5BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2.25%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，代表性的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">天期回购利率跌逾</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2.58%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">14</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">天回购利率则大跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">17BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2.40%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">21</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">天和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月期回购利率则上涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1-2BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">Shibor</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">方面，昨日除</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">Shibor</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">走平外，其余各期限下行</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.1BP-3.2BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">不等，其中隔夜品种跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3.2BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，跌幅相对较大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">Shibor</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">则小跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.7BP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2.89%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">交易员称，昨日市场资金面持续宽松，各期限资金均有供给，早盘大中型银行纷纷融出隔夜资金，需求很快得到满足，午后资金面宽松依旧，并保持至收盘。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">关注</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">操作量价</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">从以往来看，月末月初时点，资金面通常都比较宽松，这主要是因为月末财政支出形成流动性投放，增加了金融机构可用资金，而月初流动性供求面对的扰动因素较少。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份一般是税收小月，全月财政支出多大于收入，形成财政库款净投放。再考虑到积极财政的定调，市场预计下半年财政支出力度将加大，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份财政支出规模可能超过历史季节性规模。财政支出通常集中在月末进行，因此，目前银行体系超储率可能处于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月下半月以来的一个相对高位。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">本周地方债发行暂时放缓，政府债发行缴款因素对流动性的影响可控。数据显示，目前计划于本周发行的地方债不到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">100</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，加上国债之后，政府债计划发行额只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元出头，与之前数周相比，处于较低的水平。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">本周公开市场到期压力也不大，没有央行逆回购到期，周五有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">笔</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">到期，共</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1765</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">鉴于月初资金面压力不大，且没有央行逆回购到期，市场预计央行大概率将继续停做逆回购。对于到期</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">的续做则值得关注。一是价的方面，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份美联储加息几乎是板上钉钉，此前市场对于人民银行的反应已有讨论，在公开市场利率上调与否这点上存在较大分歧，此次</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">操作提供了观察窗口，二是量的方面，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份只有这</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">笔</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">到期，央行开展多大规模的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">操作对短期流动性影响较大。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：资金 MLF)</p></div>
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