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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">四季度基建增速有望企稳回升</h2>
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						      <li>2018-9-27 6:41:08</li>    
							  <li>来源：中国证券报</li>    
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									              <td width="60"><b>导读：</b></td>
												  <td>四季度基建增速有望企稳回升</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>基建</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">近期，稳投资系列政策信号不断加强，万亿<b>基建</b>项目正加快推进和储备，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">条例有望年内出台，新增专项债发行也已超万亿。专家认为，在政策、资金相关政策不断细化落地、基建项目审批加快、信贷数据中长期贷款企稳及专项债发行提速等共同作用下，四季度基础设施建设投资增速将企稳，逐步有所反弹，并带动整个投资走稳。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">中西部基建将发力</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">聚焦基建投资，发改委释放出多重利好，一大批项目正加快推进和储备，而交通基建则是稳投资的&ldquo;重头戏&rdquo;之一。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">据记者梳理显示，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年至今发改委共审批核准</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个基建项目，总投资额超三千亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">同时，多省市加快基建补短板。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">近日，湖北省发改委组织召开了全省交通项目协调推进会。会议提出，要加大基础实施补短板力度，有力有序推动交通项目建设。推进综合交通三年攻坚战项目，列出储备项目、开工项目清单，各负其责推进实施。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">江西省日前召开加大基础设施领域补短板推进重大项目建设工作会议时提出，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2020</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年，将继续加大综合交通建设力度，全面实施铁路建设&ldquo;</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">853</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">&rdquo;工程，全方位打造三大交通经济圈。江苏省近日印发《江苏省长江经济带综合立体交通运输走廊规划</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(2018-2035)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">》，同时，黑龙江、山东、海南、四川等地也纷纷加快推进基建项目落地和储备。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">中金公司分析师詹奥博认为，目前宁夏、四川、云南等西部</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">省份均在加快重大项目投资进程，预计基建&ldquo;补短板&rdquo;的重点仍将是以中西部地区为主的铁路、高速公路等重大工程。当前铁总正加速推进一批重大铁路工程进度，预计川藏线将于年底前启动部分招标，目前川藏线尚未招标的项目合计规模达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4-5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">千亿元；此外西宁</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">-</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">成都铁路等项目也在陆续招标；城际铁路方面，陕西、南昌、浙江等城市都在加速推进，预计铁路投资将为基础设施建设投资带来较大增量。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">融资环境逐步缓解</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">作为基建融资的重要渠道，地方政府债发行提速，尤其专项债增速显著。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">发改委近日表示，将加快</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.35</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万亿地方债发行和使用。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">据中诚信国际统计，新增专项债发行自</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月开始，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月份提速，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月分别发行</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">412</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1091</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4280</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，共计发行</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">5783</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月当月发行量或超</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">5000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿。从已发行专项债来看，募集资金多用于市政建设、交通运输、保障性住房建设安居工程等基础设施建设领域。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">此外，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月信贷数据中，与基建领域更相关的非金融类中长期贷款新增</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3425</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿元，意味着对基建类贷款的投放或将延续上升趋势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">方面来看，截至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月末，财政部</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">入库项目高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">11.8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万亿，其中已开工</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万亿，已签约项目</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6.1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万亿。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">大岳咨询总经理金永祥表示，下半年以来</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">项目融资有所松动，此前一些融资比较困难的项目已能融到资；从政策层面来看回暖迹象明显，近日出台的一系列文件频频提到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，此外，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">条例也有望年内出台；同时，专项债发行也开始提速，这对于基建和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">是非常有利的。四季度</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">有望企稳回升，但目前的监管要求下，回升速度不会太快。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">中信证券分析师罗鼎认为，融资环境的好转与基建增速的改善存在一定时滞，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月基建增速进一步惯性探底。但财政部《关于规范推进</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP </font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">工作的实施意见</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">征求意见稿</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">》将利好</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">项目中长期发展，而</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月以来专项债发行提速，将为后期基建反弹蓄力。在政策、资金相关政策不断细化落地、信贷数据中长期贷款企稳、以及专项债发行提速等共同作用下，四季度基建触底反弹可期。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">基建投资有望企稳</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">对于基建投资走势，交通银行首席经济学家连平表示，基础建设投资增速在今年出现大幅度下挫，主要是由于金融环境不佳、地方政府融资能力受到限制，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PPP</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">项目整治等因素。目前政策已经转向，同时还注入了许多相关的资源，未来几个月，基础设施建设投资增速将企稳，逐步有所反弹。今年的基础设施建设投资在下半年反弹之后会带动整个投资走稳。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">华宝基金副总经理李慧勇认为，基建本身具有逆周期性和调结构双重属性，在国内基建投资仍有空间的情况下，往往成为逆周期调控的工具，即在经济内生增长动力弱时，加大基建投资；在经济内生增长动力强时，主动调减投资，进而达到熨平经济周期波动的目的。上半年基建投资的减速更多体现了主动特征，随着经济不确定性的增加，国家将适度加大基建投资的力度，使得基建增速恢复。因此，基建虽然现在差，但未来预期好，市场信心有望进一步得到修复。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：基建)</p></div>
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