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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">社科院报告：房地产市场有望实现“软着陆”</h2>
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						      <li>2018-11-13 6:53:35</li>    
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												  <td>社科院报告：房地产市场有望实现“软着陆”</td>
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									              <td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
												  <td>房地产</td>
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					 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">明年房价怎么走？如今是众说纷纭，有专家说</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2019</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年是楼市的转折点，房价趋势可能发生逆转，有媒体说明年房价会暴跌甚至崩盘。那么，<b>房地产</b>市场真实的情况到底如何？</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日，住房大数据联合实验室、中国社科院财经战略研究院住房大数据项目组发布的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">142</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个城市大数据房价指数</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(BHPI)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">快报显示，与上月相比，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月，一二三四线城市房价均稳中有降，&ldquo;金九银十&rdquo;的&ldquo;银十&rdquo;黯然失色。报告显示，与</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月相比，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月一线城市房价环比下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.635%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，涨速比上月进一步回落</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.165</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个百分点。广州、北京、深圳、上海四个一线城市房价均环比下跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">报告认为，房价上涨预期有了显著的改变。市场观望情绪增强，投资投机热情下降。房地产调控政策保持了其平稳性与延续性，部分开发商及住房投资者关于调控政策放松的预期落空。货币化棚改政策的调整，对二三四线城市房地产热起到了釜底抽薪的作用。报告根据近期趋势推测，短期内房价稳中有降的城市个数将进一步增加。少部分近两年房价上涨过快的城市可能出现快速下跌。全国房地产市场有望成功实现&ldquo;软着陆&rdquo;。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">另一组数据显示，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">70</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">城房价，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">36</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个城市房价下降。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月房价数据，对</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">70</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个大中城市住宅销售价格数据进行算术平均，计算得知，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">70</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个大中城市住宅销售价格环比增幅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.15%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，增幅持续低落，其中</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">36</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个城市房价处于降幅状态，最高降幅环比达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3.8%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，这也体现了本轮楼市调控政策的有效性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">数据显示，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月全国多地房价持续走低，占比达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">51.4%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月洛阳房价降幅达到最高，为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">8382</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">平米，环比降幅</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">3.8%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月上海、深圳等一线城市出现房价降幅，其中上海降幅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.622%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">55095</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">平米；深圳降幅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.096%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">54386</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">平米。在楼市调控政策下，预计全国房价将继续走低。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">我们以深圳的房价情况来做说明。深圳是这一轮楼市调控的急先锋，相应调控措施基本都比同级别城市更严厉，所以，从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">&middot;</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">31</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">加码新政以来，深圳楼市开始加速下跌，全盘翻绿，其中，宝安和福田下滑幅度最大，宝安均价下滑</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.1%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，福田下滑</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.0%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。深圳</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月一手住宅成交均价</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">54071</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">平方米，环比下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">平方米。一手住宅成交量为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1835</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">套，环比下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">18.3%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，月成交量继续下滑。成交面积</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">17.82</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">万平方米，环比下滑</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">19.10%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">目前的情况是，短期内房价稳中有降。那么，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2019</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年房价走势会不会暴跌甚至崩盘呢？我认为这种概率几乎是零。正像社科院报告推测的，少部分近两年房价上涨过快的城市可能出现快速下跌。全国房地产市场有望成功实现&ldquo;软着陆&rdquo;。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">正像经济日报最近评论的，一些城市房地产市场稳中微降和涨幅回落是因城因地制宜、精准施策调控的结果，也是预料之中的结果。当前，在&ldquo;房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的&rdquo;定位要求下，热点城市楼市降温，全国市场总体趋稳，房地产市场呈现平稳健康态势，恰恰是调控取得良好成效的体现。当然，我们也注意到个别城市、个别区域甚至个别楼盘存在的波动，但这不能一叶障目。首先，个别现象不能反映总体情况；其次必须明确的是，房地产市场平稳健康发展是宏观调控追求的目标。</span></p>
<p>(关键字：房地产)</p></div>
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