<script type="text/javascript" src="/UpLoad/js/Attention.js">//收藏关注JS</script> <h2 class="newsinfo_title">多国改革遇逆风 欧元区经济承压</h2> <p class="divH10"></p> <div class="divH20"> <ul class="newsinfo_tips fl"> <li>2018-12-11 6:49:41</li> <li>来源:经济参考报</li> <li>作者:</li> </ul> <ul class="newsinfo_tips fr"> <table> <tr> <td><input type="button" value="收藏" onclick='Start("5319289")' /></td> <td><input type="button" value="关注" onClick="StartAtt('01112')" /></td> </tr> </table> </ul> </div> <!-- Baidu Button BEGIN --> <div class="bdsharebuttonbox"> <a class="bds_more" data-cmd="more">分享到:</a> <a title="分享到QQ空间" class="bds_qzone" href="#" data-cmd="qzone"></a> <a title="分享到新浪微博" class="bds_tsina" href="#" data-cmd="tsina"></a> <a title="分享到腾讯微博" class="bds_tqq" href="#" data-cmd="tqq"></a> <a title="分享到微信" class="bds_weixin" href="#" data-cmd="weixin"></a> <a title="分享到人人网" class="bds_renren" href="#" data-cmd="renren"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{},"image":{"viewList":["qzone","tsina","tqq","weixin","renren"],"viewText":"分享到:","viewSize":"16"},"selectShare":{"bdContainerClass":null,"bdSelectMiniList":["qzone","tsina","tqq","weixin","renren"]}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> <!-- Baidu Button END --> <div class="newsinfo_introduceBox"> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="newsinfo_introduce"> <tr> </dl> </td> <td> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="newsinfo_introduce_tab"> <tr> <td width="25" align="center"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_09.gif" /></td> <td width="60"><b>导读:</b></td> <td>多国改革遇逆风 欧元区经济承压</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25" align="center"><img src="/ContentImage/ReleFiles/2011/20111213/images/ico_11.gif" /></td> <td width="60"><b>关键字:</b></td> <td>改革 欧元区 经济</td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="divH20"></div> <div class="over_x"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">本周,法国总统马克龙将发表讲话,意在平息正在持续发酵的抗议示威活动,并减少<b>经济</b>损失。<b>欧元区</b>多国正面临<b>改革</b>受阻、经济增速和信心同时下滑的冲击,未来改革成效将决定欧元区经济前景。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">马克龙或推新政化解矛盾</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">最近一个周末,一些法国民众在巴黎以及部分外省地区发起新一轮示威活动,抗议法国政府上调燃油税导致油价上涨。为控制局面,在圣诞消费旅游季到来之际挽回经济损失,马克龙将发表讲话,预计将公布有安抚性质的经济措施。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">法国政府发言人</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日证实,总统将在本周初做出“重要宣布”。马克龙</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日将会见一大批地方民选官员、工会和行业组织。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">刚刚过去的周末里,巴黎香榭丽舍大街的商店闭门谢客,戴高乐广场、协和广场等地禁止机动车辆通行,巴黎市内多个地铁站及埃菲尔铁塔、卢浮宫等主要景点关闭。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">分析人士指出,持续发酵的抗议活动不仅让法国经济和国际形象受损,还可能导致法国总统马克龙上台以来推进的改革进入“失速”轨道。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">《金融时报》报道称,马克龙安抚抗议者的努力(包括取消燃油税上调计划,这是他上任以来首次重大政策逆转)迄今被认为太少且太晚。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">马克龙希望“在当下这个危急时刻让所有政治、地区、经济和社会力量为了国家汇聚起来,以便聆听他们的心声、他们的建议,目的是动员他们采取行动”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">眼下,局势在很大程度上取决于马克龙可能会公布的政策。《金融时报》文章指出,其中一个方法是大举增加支出,以此摆脱危机。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">法国政府计划从明年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日起上调燃油税,引发民众强烈不满。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">17</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日以来,一些民众连续四个周末在巴黎及其他外省地区举行抗议活动。实际上,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年以来法国柴油和汽油价格均出现不同程度的上涨,民众已经颇为不满。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">法国经济和财政部长勒梅尔近日在新闻发布会上表示,自从针对政府上调燃油税的示威抗议活动开始以来,法国经济受到“严重和持续”的影响,抗议活动波及地区的批发业销售额下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">15%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">25%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,零售业销售额下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">20%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">40%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,餐饮业营业额下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">20%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">50%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,酒店业的预订人数更是罕见地下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">15%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">20%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">法国国家食品工业协会发布公报说,近期持续的示威抗议令法国食品行业蒙受严重损失,预计该行业的损失高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">135</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿欧元,中小企业成为最大受害者。法国商品运输和物流行业协会则表示,抗议活动和骚乱已给该行业造成至少</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿欧元损失。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">法国政府的让步并未平息民众的不满情绪。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">改革不力引发多国不满</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">马克龙执政一年多来,推进了一系列整体上削减民众福利水平的改革举措,希望引领欧元区成员财政稳健改革,没想到事与愿违,引发了改革抵触情绪。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">马克龙将取消“巨富税”、资产税等,鼓励法国人将目光从“分蛋糕”转向“做蛋糕”。这些改革措施尽管利在长远,但短期内势必触动一些阶层的利益,导致民众不满增加。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">当地媒体分析称,改革进程中民众缺乏获得感是此次示威运动席卷法国的重要原因之一。据报道,近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年来,法国工资水平上涨不多,而中低收入群体的税收负担却始终十分沉重,他们没有感到自己是改革的受益者。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">分析人士指出,此轮示威活动或导致马克龙锐意推进的改革进入“失速”轨道。马克龙此次迫于压力放缓改革步伐,将造成负面示范效应。此外,暴力骚乱严重打击他的执政威信,以后将更难凝聚人心推进改革。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">另一方面,马克龙取消明年上调燃油税的计划后,弥补财政收入缺口将成为法国政府面临的一大难题。如果这一问题解决不当,将导致法国明年财政赤字增加,进而影响到马克龙在欧盟范围内的威信,令他“重塑”欧盟的雄心受挫。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">法国抗议潮在上周末也蔓延至比利时与荷兰,数百人涌上布鲁塞尔与鹿特丹街头。比利时群众要求总理米歇尔下台,试图冲进总理办公室、欧洲议会等重要组织所在地。荷兰则有数百抗议者和平示威、唱歌并向路人递上鲜花,邀请参与抗议。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">拖累欧元区经济增速</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">欧元区主要经济体近期表现不尽如人意,加之民众对改革措施不满,可能进一步拖累欧元区经济增长速度。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">意大利财政预算案赤字增加率超出欧盟标准,与欧元区整体经济改革相悖。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">外界对意大利经济的预期也持续走低。美国投行摩根士丹利最新研究报告预计,明年意大利经济增速只有约</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">%,这一数字明显低于其他机构先前的评估。欧盟委员会预计为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">%,国际货币基金组织预计为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">%。而意大利国家统计局预计明年意大利经济增长率为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">%。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">“外界一度曾相信意大利明年经济增速将达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.4</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">%或</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">1.5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">%,但这个数字一直在下调。”意大利国家统计局前经济学家安东尼奥·埃斯波西托告诉媒体。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">另外,欧元区经济“火车头”德国也遇到增长逆风。根据</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月发布的数据显示,受全球贸易摩擦和国内汽车行业产出下降影响,德国经济三季度环比下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.2%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2015</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年第一季度以来的首次萎缩。而德国三季度出口萎缩,制造业</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PMI</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">创</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">32</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">个月新低,综合</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">PMI</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">创近四年新低。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">一直以来,德国经济的表现很大程度决定了欧元区经济的增长或萎缩。虽然三季度欧元区仍保持扩张,但</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">0.2%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">的环比增速明显低于上半年,“趋冷”的方向与德国一致。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">对于欧洲经济下行风险,市场提前给予判断。据机构不完全统计,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2018</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年初至今,欧洲主要国家股市跌幅都在两位数,欧洲股市创下</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月以来新低。</span><font face="Calibri"> </font><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">意大利指数下跌了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">14.86%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,德国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">DAX</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">指数下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">16.49%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,法国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">CAC40</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">指数下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9.40%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,西班牙</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">IBEX35</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">指数下跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">12.23%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。而</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">MSCI</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">欧洲指数竟然下跌达到了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">15.59%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">全球市场调查机构</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">IHS Markit</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日前公布,欧元区</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月综合采购经理人指数</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">(PMI)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">终值从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">53.1</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">降至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">52.7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">,为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月以来最低水平。而企业乐观气氛处于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Calibri">2014</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年底以来最低,明年经济下行风险升高。</span></p> <p>(关键字:改革 欧元区 经济)</p></div> <div class="divH25"></div> <div class="pT25 t-r f14 cGray01">(责任编辑:01112)</div> <div class="divH25"></div>