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<h2 class="newsinfo_title">逆回购停摆 MLF续做成看点</h2>
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<li>2018-12-14 8:34:53</li>
<li>来源：中国证券报</li>
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<td>逆回购停摆 MLF续做成看点</td>
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<td width="60"><b>关键字：</b></td>
<td>逆回购 MLF</td>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">昨日，公开市场操作继续停摆，央行<b>逆回购</b>连续停做的时长纪录被刷新至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">35</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个工作日。央行称，当前银行体系流动性总量仍合理充裕。随着月中税期高峰、缴准日来临，央行将如何续做今日到期的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman"><b>MLF</b></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">成为近期货币政策操作的一大看点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">央行展现定力</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">昨日央行公告称，目前银行体系流动性总量处于合理充裕水平，可吸收国债发行缴款等因素的影响，</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="13" month="12" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">13</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">不开展逆回购操作。当日无央行逆回购或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到期，实现零投放零回笼。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">财政部于本月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日发行的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年期和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年期续发国债，缴款日均为</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="13" month="12" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">13</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，发行总额为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">770</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月以来，国债发行缴款规模累计已超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2100</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。政府债券发行缴款会即时推高财政库款，形成对银行体系流动性的回笼效应。不过，央行不为所动，自</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="26" month="10" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">26</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以来，央行已连续</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">35</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个工作日未开展逆回购操作，持续停摆的时长继续刷新纪录；</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月初分别到期的两笔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">也只被等额续做。近期央行在流动性管理上展现出的定力引起关注，分析认为，这种定力主要源自流动性的稳定表现。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月以来，银行体系流动性总体保持合理充裕，个别时候处于较高水平，市场资金面持续宽松。分析人士指出，央行基于既定流动性管理目标开展逆向调节。当前，维护流动性合理充裕是央行的操作目标，流动性水平低于合理充裕或高于合理充裕，都可能促使央行进行调控，以引导流动性回归既定目标水平。从公开市场业务交易公告传递的信息来看，近期银行流动性总量多数时候合理充裕，个别时候处于较高水平，央行投放流动性的动力和必要性不强。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">关注</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">续做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月财政存款变化上看，今年底财政投放进度较快，形成了央行公开市场操作之外的另一条流动性供应渠道，从而降低了对央行流动性投放的需求。历史上，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月份是全年财政投放的高峰期，财政库款下拨形成的流动性供应依旧可观。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">不过，财政支出往往集中在月末进行，月中时点上，资金供求仍可能面临一些扰动。一是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">14</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2860</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到期，是本月到期的第二笔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，到期量比第一笔多出将近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。二是这笔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到期适逢本月税期高峰。按以往经验来看，</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="17" month="12" year="2018"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">17</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">及其前后一两个工作日，将是税期因素对流动性扰动最大的时期。本月第二笔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到期的时点，恰好处于税期高峰时点上。三是该笔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到期，临近本月中旬的法定存款准备金缴退款日，考虑到年末金融机构揽储影响，届时银行体系可能面临法定准备金补缴。四是从往年来看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月中旬也是银行机构集中开展跨年资金备付的时候，是市场流动性较容易出现紧张的时期。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">考虑到月中多种因素可能造成叠加影响，有观点认为，央行可能会选择适度超额续做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，在对冲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到期之余，平抑税期、缴准等因素的扰动，同时稳定市场流动性预期。也有观点认为，央行可能会继续等额续做</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，而通过逆回购操作的方式对冲税期等因素影响，逆回购期限更短，可避免进一步推高年底、年初流动性总量。可以说，央行将如何续做这笔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">MLF</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">已是近期央行货币政策操作的最大看点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>(关键字：逆回购 MLF)</p></div>
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